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Situation and Outlook for Avocados
| Modest production increases in most of the world’s major avocado producing countries will increase world avocado supplies to 1.4 million tons, up 39 percent from last year. World supplies for 1998/99 were unusually low, due to a much smaller crop in Mexico, the world’s largest producer. Avocado exports in 1999/2000 are also expected to reach a record 236,000 tons, 37 percent above the previous year’s shipments, due to increased exports from Chile, South Africa, Israel and Mexico. Despite expected access to the Chilean market, U.S. exports are likely to remain constant, because of increased foreign competition and high domestic demand. Increasing demand for natural and organic avocado is prompting many Chilean and Spanish producers to take advantage of existing environmentally-friendly growing practices and convert to organic production. |
Mexico
Production for 1999/2000 is forecast at 850,000 metric tons, up 55 percent from the revised 1998/99 estimate, due primarily to favorable weather conditions and new trees coming into production. Output for 1998/99 has been revised to 550,000 tons, down 28 percent from 1997/98, because of freezing conditions during bloom.
In January 1997, USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) approved the importation of Mexican Hass avocados from Michoacán into 19 northeastern U.S. states from November through February, provided growers meet pest-control requirements. To date, no pests of concern have been found in the groves approved under the program. Both planted acreage and grower participation in APHIS’ program have more than quintupled since 1997.
Although Mexico is by far the world’s largest avocado producer, only 8 percent of production is of export quality. Due to increased access to the U.S. market, Mexican avocado producers have gradually been increasing shipments. Exports to the United States in 1998/99 totaled 10,521 tons, up 37 percent from 1997/98, and are forecast at 12,000 tons in 1999/2000, a 14 percent increase. Total Mexican avocado exports in 1999/2000 are forecast to reach 45,000, an increase of 17 percent from last year, due mainly to higher export-quality supplies. Central America continues to be Mexico’s largest export market, followed by the United States and Canada. Imports of fresh avocados into Mexico are negligible, reflecting its status as the world’s largest producer and consumer. U.S. avocados are unable to enter the Mexican market due to phytosanitary restrictions.
United States
Production for 1999/2000 is forecast at 165,000 tons, up 16 percent from the 1998/99 season, due to good weather. The official 1999/2000 estimate of U.S. avocado production will not be available from USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) until July 2000. U.S. exports of avocados for 1998/99 totaled 5,949 tons, 44 percent above the previous year’s level, and are forecast to remain constant at 6,000 tons in 1999/2000. U.S. fresh avocado imports increased significantly in 1998/99 to 55,515 tons, up 16 percent, reflecting increased Chilean shipments. Chile accounted for 66 percent of total U.S. imports, followed by Mexico with 19 percent. Total U.S. imports are likely to decrease slightly in 1999/2000, due to expected larger domestic production. U.S. processed avocado imports are overwhelmingly of Mexican origin. Imports of processed product increased 9 percent in 1998/99 and are likely to increase slightly in 1999/2000 due to expected increases in Mexican shipments.
South Africa
Production in 1999/2000 is forecast at a record 104,000 tons,
up 60 percent, due mostly to the alternate bearing nature of the
fruit. The 1998/99 avocado crop decreased significantly to 65,000
tons, 35 percent below the 1997/98 record crop, due to inclement
weather and the cyclical nature of the crop. Continued growth in
planted area suggests that South African avocado production will
increase substantially in the next few years. Exports for
1999/2000 are forecast at 54,000 tons, up 64 percent from last
season, due to larger supplies. Practically all of South Africa's
exports are targeted for the European Union, with Belgium, the
United Kingdom, and France the major markets.
Chile
Production for 1999/2000 is forecast at 78,000 tons, up 29 percent from the revised estimate for 1998/99, due to new orchards reaching production and good weather. The revised production estimate for 1998/99 is 60,550, down 30 percent from the 1997/98 record crop, due to bad weather. Future increased output is expected as planted area has been increasing and new plantings have yet to reach full production. Many growers plan to go into organic production, since the aridity of the avocado producing regions is not conducive to pests, eliminating the need for spraying. Exports are expected to increase in 1999/2000 to 38,000 tons, 52 percent above last year’s revised shipments, due to larger supplies. Chile’s exporters are still overwhelmingly dependent on the U.S. market, with over 95 percent of total 1998 exports shipped to the United States. Currently, Chile does not allow U.S. imports, due to phytosanitary restrictions. However, due to ongoing USDA efforts to open the Chilean market, Chile is expected to announce in January 2000 its final regulation, which will permit the entrance of U.S. avocados.
Israel
Avocado production in 1999/2000 is forecast at 70,000 tons, up 56 percent from last year’s revised estimate, due to good weather. Actual production for 1998/99 was 45,000 tons, down 30 percent from 1997/98, because of bad weather and accelerated uprooting of orchards. Output is likely to remain constant in the next few years, due to replanting of old orchards with hardier rootstocks. Exports are forecast to increase to 48,000 tons, up 92 percent from last year, due to the larger crop. Almost all Israeli avocados are shipped to Europe, with over 50 percent going to France. U.S. avocados are unable to enter the Israeli market due to phytosanitary restrictions.
Spain
Production for 1999/2000 is forecast at 68,000 tons, down 7 percent from last year, due to the crop’s alternate bearing cycle. Expanded output is expected to increase 25-30 percent in the next five years as increasing demand and good prices entice growers to turn to avocado production. Increasing European demand for natural and organic avocados is prompting many Spanish producers to take advantage of existing environmentally-friendly growing practices to convert to organic production. Other European countries are Spain’s main export markets, with France consuming over 60 percent of total exports. Most avocado imports are from South Africa and Mexico, but are marketed at different times so as not to compete with domestic product. No significant prospects exist for U.S. exports because consumption is limited and Spain is a net exporter.
Japan
Japanese consumption of fresh avocados depends entirely on imports, since there is no domestic production. Avocado consumption has been gradually increasing since being introduced in Japan in the early 1980s. Domestic consumption is forecast at 7,000 tons, down slightly from last year. Imports are solely from the United States and Mexico, with the latter having a 98 percent market share. Mexican dominance in this market is attributable to improved quality and price competitiveness.
(The FAS Attache Report search engine contains reports on the avocado industry for 6 countries, including Mexico, South Africa, Chile, and Spain. For information on production and trade, contact Lisa Anderson at 202 720-5028. For information on marketing contact Steve Shnitzler at 202-720-8495)
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