- Raisin Situation
in Selected Countries
- Raisin production is expected
to fall by 10 percent to 497,183 metric tons in
1999/2000 for selected Northern Hemisphere
countries. Production in Greece, Turkey and
Mexico is estimated to decline by 19 percent, 24
percent and 32 percent, respectively in
1999/2000. The United States is the only Northern
Hemisphere country expected to post an increase
in 1999/2000, with production forecast at 267,183
tons, up 6 percent from 1998/99.
- United States
- Raisin production in the
United States is estimated at 267,183 metric tons in
marketing year 1999/2000 (August 1999-July 2000), a
slight increase from the 1998/99 crop. According to the
industry, the 1999/2000 crop had large and full grape
bunches but the grape bunch count was also one of the
smallest recorded, 30 percent less than in 1998/99. The
small 1998/99 raisin crop combined with strong domestic
and international demand is expected to raise the price
of raisins in the 1999/2000 marketing year.
- Exports and imports in
1999/2000 are estimated to remain unchanged from 1998/99.
Exports and imports are forecast at 112,000 and 25,000
tons, respectively, both up 1 percent from the previous
year. In 1998/99, exports fell by 8 percent from the
previous year to 110,688 tons. US raisin imports more
than doubled in 1998/99 to reach 24,750 tons. The largest
market for US raisins was Japan, which purchased a record
30,101 tons. Other important markets for US raisins in
1998/99 were the United Kingdom and Canada. In 1998/99,
the United States primarily imported raisins from Mexico,
Chile and Afghanistan. Imports from Afghanistan rose from
351 tons in 1997/98 to 4,287 tons in 1998/99.
- After two consecutive
excellent crops and record highs, production in 1999/2000
is estimated at 190,000 metric tons, down 24 percent from
the previous year. Crop disease and hail in some grape
producing areas resulted in a smaller crop.
- As a result of the smaller
raisin crop, Turkeys raisin exports are expected to
decrease by 8 percent in 1999/2000 to 180,000 tons.
Virtually all raisin exports are destined for industrial
uses rather than direct consumption. Germany, Italy, the
Netherlands and the United Kingdom are Turkeys
major export markets for raisins.
- Raisin production in Greece
is estimated to decline by 19 percent to 25,000 tons in
1999/2000 due to unfavorable weather conditions during
the summer of 1999, as well as wet weather during the
drying period in September 1999. In addition, a plant
disease outbreak will also affect the quality and
quantity of the output in 1999/2000.
- A smaller crop in 1999/2000
is expected to raise imports 400 percent to 1,500 tons,
despite a small decline in domestic consumption. Exports
are estimated at 26,000 tons, unchanged from the previous
year. However, the level of exports will depend on the
prices offered by competitors and Turkey has entered the
1999/2000 marketing year with cheaper export prices and
with a relatively better quality product. In 1998/99, 45
percent of raisin exports were destined for Germany,
followed by the U.K., France, Holland and Italy.
- Raisin production in Mexico
for the 1999/2000 marketing year is forecast down 32
percent to 15,000 tons. Adverse weather during the drying
season led to a significant reduction in the quantity and
quality of output.
- Poor raisin quality is
expected to affect exports. Raisin exports are forecast
at 5,000 tons in 1999/2000, down 62 percent from the
previous year. As usual, the highest quality production
is expected to be exported, mainly to the United States,
with the rest packaged for domestic consumption or used
by the domestic baking and food processing industries.
Imports are expected to decline by 22 percent as a result
of a larger domestic supply of raisins. Chile remains the
main raisin supplier to the Mexican market.
- South Africa
- South Africas raisin
production has been revised up 9 percent in 1998/99 to
40,358 tons, as a result of favorable weather conditions
and the availability of greater information. Despite some
frosts and late rains this past winter, the industry
forecasts the 1999/2000 raisin crop to reach 38,000 tons.
- Raisin exports in 1998/99
are estimated to reach 30,000 tons. Raisin exports in
1997/98 were revised downwards to correct an error found
in official trade numbers. Major markets include the
United Kingdom, Canada, the Netherlands and France.
- Raisin production for
1998/99 was revised down by 12 percent from an earlier
forecast of 23,500 tons to 20,700 tons due to adverse
weather. The reduced production has sharply limited
export availability and will increase pressure for
additional imports. Consequently, exports for 1998/99 are
expected to reach the record low level of 5,700 tons.
Imports are expected to increase to 13,500 tons.
- Beginning with the 1998/99
crop, the Australian Dried Fruit Board (ADFB) will no
longer set the export price for sultanas and raisins. The
price for the 1997/98 season was set at US $1,675 per
- (The FAS Attache
Report search engine contains reports on the Dried Fruit
industries for 8 countries, including South Africa,
Turkey and Australia. For information on production and
trade, contact Karina Ramos at 202-720-6877. For
information on marketing contact Kelly Strzelecki at
Last modified: Thursday, April 06, 2000