Raisin Situation in Selected Countries

Northern Hemisphere

 

United States

 

Raisin production in the United States is estimated at 267,183 metric tons in marketing year 1999/2000 (August 1999-July 2000), a slight increase from the 1998/99 crop. According to the industry, the 1999/2000 crop had large and full grape bunches but the grape bunch count was also one of the smallest recorded, 30 percent less than in 1998/99. The small 1998/99 raisin crop combined with strong domestic and international demand is expected to raise the price of raisins in the 1999/2000 marketing year.

 

Exports and imports in 1999/2000 are estimated to remain unchanged from 1998/99. Exports and imports are forecast at 112,000 and 25,000 tons, respectively, both up 1 percent from the previous year. In 1998/99, exports fell by 8 percent from the previous year to 110,688 tons. US raisin imports more than doubled in 1998/99 to reach 24,750 tons. The largest market for US raisins was Japan, which purchased a record 30,101 tons. Other important markets for US raisins in 1998/99 were the United Kingdom and Canada. In 1998/99, the United States primarily imported raisins from Mexico, Chile and Afghanistan. Imports from Afghanistan rose from 351 tons in 1997/98 to 4,287 tons in 1998/99.

 

Turkey

 

After two consecutive excellent crops and record highs, production in 1999/2000 is estimated at 190,000 metric tons, down 24 percent from the previous year. Crop disease and hail in some grape producing areas resulted in a smaller crop.

 

As a result of the smaller raisin crop, Turkey’s raisin exports are expected to decrease by 8 percent in 1999/2000 to 180,000 tons. Virtually all raisin exports are destined for industrial uses rather than direct consumption. Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom are Turkey’s major export markets for raisins.

 

Greece

 

Raisin production in Greece is estimated to decline by 19 percent to 25,000 tons in 1999/2000 due to unfavorable weather conditions during the summer of 1999, as well as wet weather during the drying period in September 1999. In addition, a plant disease outbreak will also affect the quality and quantity of the output in 1999/2000.

 

A smaller crop in 1999/2000 is expected to raise imports 400 percent to 1,500 tons, despite a small decline in domestic consumption. Exports are estimated at 26,000 tons, unchanged from the previous year. However, the level of exports will depend on the prices offered by competitors and Turkey has entered the 1999/2000 marketing year with cheaper export prices and with a relatively better quality product. In 1998/99, 45 percent of raisin exports were destined for Germany, followed by the U.K., France, Holland and Italy.

 

Mexico

 

Raisin production in Mexico for the 1999/2000 marketing year is forecast down 32 percent to 15,000 tons. Adverse weather during the drying season led to a significant reduction in the quantity and quality of output.

 

Poor raisin quality is expected to affect exports. Raisin exports are forecast at 5,000 tons in 1999/2000, down 62 percent from the previous year. As usual, the highest quality production is expected to be exported, mainly to the United States, with the rest packaged for domestic consumption or used by the domestic baking and food processing industries. Imports are expected to decline by 22 percent as a result of a larger domestic supply of raisins. Chile remains the main raisin supplier to the Mexican market.

Southern Hemisphere

 

South Africa

 

South Africa’s raisin production has been revised up 9 percent in 1998/99 to 40,358 tons, as a result of favorable weather conditions and the availability of greater information. Despite some frosts and late rains this past winter, the industry forecasts the 1999/2000 raisin crop to reach 38,000 tons.

 

Raisin exports in 1998/99 are estimated to reach 30,000 tons. Raisin exports in 1997/98 were revised downwards to correct an error found in official trade numbers. Major markets include the United Kingdom, Canada, the Netherlands and France.

 

Australia

 

Raisin production for 1998/99 was revised down by 12 percent from an earlier forecast of 23,500 tons to 20,700 tons due to adverse weather. The reduced production has sharply limited export availability and will increase pressure for additional imports. Consequently, exports for 1998/99 are expected to reach the record low level of 5,700 tons. Imports are expected to increase to 13,500 tons.

 

Beginning with the 1998/99 crop, the Australian Dried Fruit Board (ADFB) will no longer set the export price for sultanas and raisins. The price for the 1997/98 season was set at US $1,675 per ton.

 

(The FAS Attache Report search engine contains reports on the Dried Fruit industries for 8 countries, including South Africa, Turkey and Australia. For information on production and trade, contact Karina Ramos at 202-720-6877. For information on marketing contact Kelly Strzelecki at 202-690-1341)

Last modified: Thursday, April 06, 2000