World Fresh Citrus Situation

Northern Hemisphere

 

Total Northern Hemisphere citrus production in 1998/99 in major producing countries is estimated at 42.5 million tons, down 15 percent from the record 1997/98 crop. Northern Hemisphere orange production in 1998/99 is forecast at 23 million tons, down 19 percent from 1997/98 based mainly on a large decrease in U.S. orange production, but also decreases in Mexico, Morocco, and Spain. Northern Hemisphere tangerine production is forecast at 12.2 million tons, 14 percent below last year’s output. This smaller production is due mainly to decreases in China, Spain, and Japan. Selected country grapefruit production is forecast at 3.3 million tons, roughly equal to the previous year’s output. Production of lemons and other citrus, mostly limes, is forecast to decrease to 2.6 and 1.5 million tons, respectively.

 

Total fresh citrus exports in 1998/99 are forecast at 6.4 million tons, down 8 percent from the 1997/98 volume. Decreases in Spanish orange and tangerine exports and lower shipments of Greek and U.S. oranges are expected to account for most of this decline.

 

United States

 

Total citrus production in the United States in 1998/99 is forecast at 12.5 million tons, 23 percent below the previous year’s record harvest. Orange production in 1998/99 is forecast at 9.0 million tons, down 28 percent from last year’s output. Production is forecast to decrease in both Florida (where most of the oranges are processed) and California (where most of the oranges are for fresh consumption and export) and for most varieties of oranges. Florida orange output is down 23 percent from last year’s record harvest due to less than optimal growing conditions. Grapefruit production in 1998/99 is forecast at 2.3 million tons, down slightly from last year’s output.

 

A freeze in December in California’s San Joaquin Valley severely reduced the amount of Navel and Valencia oranges and lemons harvested in that area. California’s preliminary all orange crop estimate was reduced by 39 percent after the freeze and is forecast 51 percent below the previous year’s output. Although California accounts for about 25 percent of total U.S. orange output, California accounts for most U.S. fresh orange exports. Total U.S. lemon production is forecast for 1998/99 was reduced by 10 percent because of the freeze and is forecast 18 percent lower than the previous year’s output.

 

Total U.S. citrus exports in 1998/99 are forecast at 870,000 million tons, down 26 percent from the previous year’s shipments. Orange exports in 1998/99 are forecast to fall by 52 percent because of reduced supplies from California. U.S. grapefruit exports in 1998/99, on the other hand, are forecast to increase by 8 percent to about 425,000 tons.

 

U.S. citrus for processing in 1998/99 is forecast at 9.7 million tons, down from last year’s record 11.9 million tons, based on the lower Florida orange harvest.

 

Mexico

 

Mexican citrus production is forecast at 4.3 million tons in 1998/99, 21 percent below last year’s output. Unfavorably dry weather conditions during the first part of 1998 accounted for much of the decrease, though these conditions were not as severe as first forecast. Orange production in 1998/99 is forecast at 2.95 million tons, down 25 percent from the previous year, but up 18 percent from the previous forecast. Tangerine production is forecast at 190,000 tons, down 31 percent from last year’s production. Production of grapefruit, lemons, and limes are also forecast to decrease, 23, 48, and 1 percent, respectively.

 

Exports of oranges in 1998/99 are forecast at 50,000 tons, sharply above the previous year based on higher U.S. demand as a result of the California freeze. The United States is traditionally the largest export market for Mexican oranges, which mostly originate in Sonora. Mexican exporters continue to explore Asian markets such as Hong Kong and Japan.

 

Spain

 

The total Spanish citrus crop for 1998/99 is estimated at 4.9 million tons, 9 percent below last year’s output. Orange production is expected to decrease 12 percent and tangerines 11 percent, while lemons are forecast to increase by 8 percent. A high incidence of Tristeza in many key producing areas is the primary reason for the expected decline in orange and tangerine production, though rain during January 1999 helped improve field conditions and fruit development.

 

Spain is the world’s largest citrus exporter, accounting for approximately 50 percent of total Northern Hemisphere exports. Citrus exports are expected to decrease 3 percent in 1998/99 due to reduced orange and tangerine production. Spanish exports to Asia increased as the California freeze dampened competition from the United States, but these gains were largely offset by a decline in sales to Eastern Europe. The majority of Spanish citrus is exported to other European Union countries, accounting for 85 percent of total citrus exports. The bulk of these exports go to traditional markets such as Germany, France, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom.

 

Italy

 

Italian citrus production is forecast to decrease to 2.6 million tons, a decrease of 19 percent from the previous year. The previous fresh orange production estimate was reduced by 6 percent due to extreme heat during the growing season and hail and abnormally cool weather during harvest. The initial tangerine production forecast was reduced by 15 percent, to 450,000 tons, due to similar weather problems.

 

Italian imports of citrus continue to increase, with a positive trade balance remaining only in oranges. Italian citrus continues to face strong competition from Spain. Most Italian imports are from Morocco, Spain, and other Mediterranean countries.

 

Greece

 

Total citrus production in Greece for 1998/99 is forecast at 780,000 tons, down 36 percent from the previous year. The Greek citrus production forecast for 1998/99 was reduced significantly due to poor weather throughout the growing season. The production forecasts were reduced by 33, 27, and 37 percent for oranges, tangerines, and lemons, respectively.

 

Orange exports are forecast to decrease to 180,000 tons, 45 percent below last year’s volume. Lemon exports are forecast to decrease by 49 percent compared to the previous year. However, as a result of the lower supply, export prices have increased by 15 to 25 percent.

 

Morocco

 

Morocco’s citrus production in 1998/99 is forecast at 1.2 million tons, 22 percent below from last year’s bumper harvest. This decrease is mainly due to a low point of the citrus trees’ bearing cycle and problematic weather in some areas during the flowering period. The citrus crop is forecast to be down in most growing areas, especially in the Souss and Gharb areas.

 

Citrus exports in 1998/99 are forecast at 550,000 tons, 10 percent below the previous year’s shipments, based on the smaller orange crop. Orange exports are forecast at 330,000 tons and tangerine exports are forecast at 220,000 tons. The European Union accounts for most of Morocco’s total orange exports. The proximity of the EU and the preferential duties to which Moroccan citrus are subject to upon entry will continue to make the EU appealing to Moroccan exporters. The EU market is the destination for most of Morocco’s top quality citrus, while second quality oranges are increasingly directed to Eastern Europe and Russia. The East European countries are less demanding in quality and thus are supplied with fruit that would normally go to the domestic market.

 

Korea

 

The main citrus crop in Korea is tangerines. Tangerine production in 1998/99 is forecast at 508,000 tons, 3 percent below the previous forecast. The reduction in the forecast is due to a larger than expected volume of damaged and diseased fruit at harvest. Problems such as skin cracking and brown rot resulted in a smaller tonnage produced. The general reduction in production is also because the 1998/99 crop is considered in the off-year of the production cycle, though the sweetness and overall quality of the fruit is expected to be high.

 

Orange imports into Korea were liberalized on July 1, 1997, according to terms of the Record of Understanding signed between Korea and the United States under the Uruguay Round. Liberalization now means the market operates under a tariff rate quota system. In-quota orange imports in 1999 totaled 33,271 tons. Additionally, in May of 1998, the Korean Food and Drug Administration conformed its chemical residue standards to those of the Codex Alimentarious, which has eased some of the restrictions on citrus imports.

 

Newly adopted restrictive minimum access (MMA) orange quota tender specifications limited the amount of imports. The new regulations discouraged most U.S. companies possessing fruit after the California freeze from participating in the government sanctioned auctions. Through April 30, 1999, only 9,625 tons out of 33,271tons of MMA oranges tendered had been awarded.

 

The United States dominates the Korean orange and grapefruit import markets accounting for about 99 percent of the market. As a result of their recent export approval, South Africa will now compete with fruit from the United States. Other countries seeking export approval to Korea are Australia, Spain, and Chile.

 

Japan

 

Total citrus production in 1998/99 is forecast at 1.56 million tons, 21 percent below the 1997/98 output and very similar to the 1996/97 harvest. Tangerine production, which accounts for most of the citrus production, is forecast at 1.4 million tons, down 22 percent from the previous year’s output. The lower production is due largely to unfavorable weather in 1998/99, high temperatures in spring and summer, and typhoons and heavy rain in late summer and early fall.

 

Japan’s total citrus imports in 1998/99 are forecast to increase by 6 percent to 489,000 tons. Higher imports of fresh grapefruit are expected to account for much of the increase. U.S. grapefruit exports to Japan are expected to rise to 250,000 tons in 1998/99, as marketers recover from short supplies of high-quality fruit from the previous year. Fresh orange imports are forecast to decline 6 percent to 142,000 tons, largely due to the effects of the California freeze. Strong sales in October and December were offset by a dramatic decrease in January and February.

 

The United States market share of the Japanese market for oranges, grapefruit, and lemons in marketing year 1997/98 was 85, 74, and 81 percent, respectively. However, the United States continues to face increasing competition from Australia and South Africa in the fresh orange market. Suppliers in competing countries tend to ship after the main growing season for U.S. oranges, but may increasingly be encroaching on the traditional sales period for California fruit. South Africa generally supplies Navels and Valencias to the Japanese market from July through September, while Australia ships the same product from July through November.

 

China

 

China’s citrus production in 1998/99 is forecast at 8.4 million tons, 7 percent below last year’s record output. Tangerine production is forecast to decrease by 13 percent to 6.0 million tons, due to drought conditions in the southern provinces, though this output is still 9 percent above the 1996/97 output. Orange production is forecast to increase to 2.4 million tons, 14 percent above 1997/98.

 

Total citrus exports in 1998/99 are forecast at 203,000 tons. Tangerine exports are forecast at 190,000 tons, a 2 percent decrease from the previous year. Tangerines account for about 94 percent of China’s citrus exports.

 

The recent Agreement on U.S.-China Agricultural Cooperation is expected to end the prohibitive phytosanitary barriers against U.S. citrus imports, though fresh citrus imports will continue to face high tariffs. However, substantial amounts of U.S. and South African Navel and Valencia oranges are reportedly transshipped through Hong Kong to Guagndong province, where they are sold in wholesale markets. China’s official orange imports totaled only 12 tons in 1996/97 and are forecast at 38 tons in 1998/99.

 

 

Southern Hemisphere

 

Total Southern Hemisphere citrus production is forecast to increase by 10 percent to 23.8 million tons. This increase is largely the result of a rebound in Brazilian orange production, which accounts for more than 75 percent of total Southern Hemisphere citrus production. Total fresh citrus exports in 1998/99 are forecast to increase 5 percent to 1.2 million tons, including a large increase in exports of lemons from Argentina. Citrus for is processing also expected to increase as a result of the larger Brazilian orange crop, which offset declines in citrus processing in Argentina.

 

Australia

 

Total citrus production in 1998/99 is forecast to increase to 555,000 tons. The orange crop is forecast at 524,000 million tons, 24 percent above the previous year. The 1997/98 forecast was revised down to 421,000 tons due to poor weather conditions. Lemon production is forecast at 31,000 tons in 1998/99.

 

Exports of oranges in 1998/99 are forecast at 125,000 tons, an increase of 15 percent over the previous year. Exports in 1997/98 suffered from the lower production and weak demand in key Asian markets. Orange exports have grown from 45,000 tons in 1990/91 to a forecast 125,000 tons in 1998/99.

 

Argentina

 

Total citrus production in Argentina in 1998/99 is forecast to decrease to 2.4 million tons, down 6 percent, due to unfavorable weather. Rainfall in the 1999 production year was excessive and adversely affected production. Despite a slight decrease in total production, Argentine total exports are forecast to increase 7 percent based on increased lemon exports.

 

Production of fresh lemons in Argentina is forecast to increase to a record 1.05 million tons in 1998/99. A key factor in the increase in production is the increase in young plantings that are reaching bearing age. It is reported that in the Tucuman province in northern Argentina trees are being planted beyond the replacement rate each year. Fresh lemons delivered to processors in 1999 are forecast at 690,000 tons, down 3 percent from the previous year. The decrease in amount of lemons delivered to processors is attributed to reduced export demand and low international prices.

 

Total orange production in Argentina in 1998/99 (harvested April through December) is forecast at 780,000 tons, down 15 percent from the previous year. The factors contributing to lower production are unfavorable weather, poor prices leading to minimal tree maintenance, and poor soil aeration which led to a reduction in buds and plant growth. These factors adversely affected flowering of the trees in August and September of 1998, resulting in the lower harvest in 1999. The Entre Rios province has become the most important orange producing area in Argentina, accounting for 52 percent of production. Tangerine production is forecast at 340,000 tons, 12 percent below the previous year. However, grapefruit production is forecast to increase by 12 percent, to 210,000 tons. More trees coming into production and a recovery from the previous dry year accounted for the increase in grapefruit production.

 

Fresh lemon exports are forecast at 190,000 tons, an increase of 22 percent. The largest export markets remain in the European Union, however, Russia and Canada are also becoming important markets. Argentina is also forecast to export 90,000 tons of fresh oranges and 30,000 tons of tangerines in 1998/99, mainly to the Netherlands, Spain, and the UK.

 

Brazil

 

Orange production in Brazil is forecast to rebound to 18.0 million tons in 1998/99 (Brazilian 1999/00 marketing year), an increase of 13 percent from the previous year. The increased production is in large part due to higher production of late Natal and Valencia orange varieties, which are both in the peak year of their bi-annual production cycle, the reportedly good condition of the early Hamlin variety, and good weather through the growing season. Additionally, the high prices which processors paid for fruit in the previous season allowed growers to maintain good crop management practices. The increased total production will allow for both increased processing and fresh domestic consumption in 1998/99. However, a lower percentage of the total orange crop is forecast to be processed in the 1998/99 season, 68 percent of total production or 12.2 million tons, while domestic consumption is forecast to rebound to 5.6 million tons.

 

Orange production in the 1997/98 year (Brazilian 1998/99 marketing year) was revised up 6 percent to 15.9 million tons, as a larger than expected production from the fourth bloom added to total production. Additionally, the 1997/98 estimate of oranges for processing was revised upward by 10 percent, while domestic consumption was reduced by 3 percent. Demand from the processing industry in 1997/98 was stronger than previously expected because concern about fruit availability led processors to offer significantly higher prices late in the season. The increased price for fruit and the reduced purchasing power of consumers after the Real devaluation diverted fruit to processors and away from the domestic fresh market.

 

Citrus canker has grown into a serious concern for growers in the Sao Paulo commercial citrus area. Estimates of the actual number of infected trees vary widely, but it is possible that several million trees could be eradicated in the next few years in an effort to bring the disease under control. Fundecitrus, the Sao Paulo State Fund for the Defense of Citriculture, is taking an active role in the detection and eradication of citrus canker. Fundecitrus plans to use a temporary workforce of 4,000 to examine the entire Sao Paulo citrus area for canker and then to eradicate infected trees and trees in a specified buffer zone surrounding infected trees, in order to halt the spread of the disease. Prior to citrus canker, Citrus Variegated Chlorosis (CVC) was the main disease challenge to the citrus industry in Brazil, but CVC is now under control due to increased grower awareness and improved grove maintenance practices. Many feel that a successful outcome to Fundecitrus’s response to the canker problem, increasing yields, and higher quality rootstock will reduce the impact of disease on the industry.

 

South Africa

 

Total South African citrus production for 1998/99 is forecast at 1.26 million tons, an increase of 2 percent from the previous year. The increased production is largely attributed to an increase in the number of bearing orange trees. Total orange, grapefruit, and lemon production is forecast to increase by 1, 3, and 8 percent, respectively.

 

Total exports are forecast to reach 640,000 tons, with oranges accounting for 70 percent of the total. Orange, lemon, and grapefruit exports are all forecast slightly higher as the availability of fruit increases in the 1998/99 season.

 

For further information on production, supply, distribution, and trade contact Mark Petry, Horticultural and Tropical Products Division, (202) 720-0897. For information on U.S. marketing opportunities, contact Ted Goldammer at (202) 720-8498.

Last modified: Thursday, April 06, 2000