Outlook for Concentrated Apple Juice Production and Trade

in Selected Countries

Northern Hemisphere

 

United States

U.S. AJ production in 1998/99 is forecast at 140,000 tons, up 6 percent from the1997/98 record low output, based on a record apple crop and processing in Washington state. However, the 1998/99 U.S. AJ production forecast is 5 percent below the 1993/94-1997/98 five-season production average. Low prices for juice apples in recent years have hampered AJ production in some major apple processing states, such as Michigan, California, and New York. Normally, between 40 and 45 percent of Michigan’s apples for processing are directed to the juice and cider industries compared with 70 percent in California and 40 percent in New York.

 

U.S. AJ imports in 1998/99 are forecast at 210,000 tons, up 13 percent from last season, based on higher imports to date. U.S. AJ imports, which are mostly concentrated non-frozen, totaled 118,000 tons, 70/71 degrees brix equivalent, for the period July 1998 through January 1999, up 17 percent from the same period last season. The increase mainly reflects a sharp climb in imports from China, which are running more than 250 percent ahead of last season. In recent years, China has become a major world apple juice producer and a significant supplier to the U.S. market. Significantly lower Chinese AJ prices have resulted in increasing China’s AJ share in the U.S. market. According to Census Bureau data, import prices for Chinese product have decreased from an average of $1.40 per gallon, single strength equivalent, in 1997, to 67 cents per gallon in 1998. Other countries, such as Hungary, Chile, and Argentina, have also lowered their prices, presumably in an effort to maintain their share of the American market in order to compete with lower-priced Chinese product. In response to concerns over increased AJ imports, the U.S. apple industry is pursuing an antidumping case with the U.S. Department of Commerce against foreign suppliers of low-cost apple juice concentrate. Reportedly, several U.S. apple-juice processing plants have been forced to cease operations, including plants in North Carolina and New York, because of the lower priced imports.

 

On the other hand, U.S. AJ exports in 1998/99 are forecast to decrease for the third consecutive season to 6,000 tons, 23 percent below 1997/98 shipments. Major customers will likely continue to be Canada and Japan.

 

 

Poland

 

Poland is the one of the world’s leading AJ producing and exporting countries. Poland’s AJ production in 1998/99 is forecast at 138,000 tons, 5 percent below the 1997/98 output, mainly due to a smaller apple crop. In recent years, profitability of AJ production has encouraged many growers to switch to varieties more productive and profitable for processing. Moreover, increased investment in processing is expected to boost Polish AJ production in the coming years.

 

Exports of Polish AJ in 1998/99 are forecast at 120,00 tons, 11 percent below 1997/98 shipments, reflecting lower export supplies. Most Polish AJ production is exported (about 95 percent) to neighboring countries. Germany is by far the leading customer normally accounting for more than 80 percent of total Polish AJ exports. Traditionally, most Polish AJ exported to Germany is reprocessed and re-exported to the United States.

 

 

Southern Hemisphere

 

Argentina

 

Argentine production of AJ in 1998/99 is forecast at 77,000 tons, up 12 percent from 1997/98. More apples are expected to be processed this season reflecting a larger fresh crop and expected improved juice prices. Argentina is the leading AJ producer in the Southern Hemisphere. An estimated 80 percent of Argentina's processed apples go to AJ, 15 percent for cider, and 5 percent dried or processed into jams, vinegar, and other products. There are 17 apple processing plants in Argentina, which operate year round. However, 80 percent of the processing is done February-May and 20 percent during the rest of the year from cold-storage fruit. Rio Negro and Neuquen are the major Argentine CAJ producing provinces.

 

Argentina is the third largest AJ exporter for selected countries following Germany and Poland. Exports of AJ in 1998/99 are forecast at 68,000 tons, practically unchanged from last season’s shipments. The United States is Argentina’s major AJ market, accounting for more than 90 percent of total shipments. U.S. imports of Argentine AJ from July 1998 through January 1999, however, are running 23 percent below shipments during the same period last season.

 

Chile

 

Chile’s AJ production in 1998/99 is forecast at 30,500 tons, down almost 20 percent from the 1997/98 output. Low international prices for concentrated apple juice will likely slow Chilean AJ production, which is mainly directed to the export market. There are six juice processing plants in Chile with excess production capacity. Traditionally, apples not suitable for the fresh export market, are processed into apple juice.

 

Chilean AJ exports in 1998/99 are forecast to decrease 17 percent to 30,000 tons. The United States is Chile's largest CAJ export market (accounting for more than 70 percent of total export sales), although the importance of other markets, such as Japan, Canada, and Australia has been increasing. Only small amounts of AJ are consumed domestically, principally single-strength type.

 

(For further information on supply, distribution, and trade, contact Samuel Rosa at (202) 720-6086)

Last modified: Thursday, April 06, 2000