AVOCADO SITUATION IN SELECTED COUNTRIES

 

Mexico

 

Mexico remains the world’s largest producer of avocados. Production for 1998/99 (August/July) is forecast at 700,000 tons, down 8 percent from the revised 1997/98 estimate, due primarily to El Niño-induced frost during the blooming period in the principal growing region in the state of Michoacán.

 

As of January 31, 1997, USDA’s Animal Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) approved the importation of Mexican Hass avocados from Michoacán into 19 northeastern U.S. states and the District of Columbia from November through February, provided growers meet pest-control requirements. APHIS reports that this program has been running smoothly since November 1997, when Mexican growers first began shipping avocados to the U.S.

 

Mexican avocado exports to the U.S. in 1997/98 were 7,655 tons, less than the 10,000 - 15,000 originally estimated. For 1998/99, exports to the United States are forecast at 10,000 - 12,000 tons. Due to the partial lifting of the phytosanitary ban, the United States has the potential of becoming a major market for Mexican avocados. Mexican exporters have expressed hopes of exporting 25,000 tons to the United States in the near future.

 

Total Mexican avocado exports in 1998/99 are forecast to increase to 44,000 tons, an increase of 29 percent from last year, due mainly to higher export-quality supplies. Canada and Central America continue to be Mexico’s largest export markets. In 1997/98 exports of processed avocados increased to 15,734 tons, up 21 percent from last year and attributable to higher demand mainly from Central America.

 

Although Mexico permits the import of avocados, because of current prices, avocado imports are not generally competitive in Mexico. Under NAFTA, fresh avocado imports from the U.S. are subject to a U.S. $0.066/kg duty for 1998 although this tariff is scheduled to be phased out by 2004. Imported avocados are also subject to phytosanitary and sanitary inspections by SAGAR, the Mexican Ministry of Agriculture Livestock and Rural Development.

 

Chile

 

After Mexico and the United States, Chile has become the world’s third largest avocado producer. Avocado production for the 1998/99 season (January/December) is forecast at 86,000 tons, up 5 percent from the revised estimate for last season’s record crop. The revised estimate for the 1997/98 season indicates that Chilean avocado production increased to 82,000 tons, up 55 percent from the 1996/97 season. This sizable increase is not only a result of a combination of excellent weather in all growing areas and a large number of new orchards coming into production, but also due to the fact that a severe drought during the previous two seasons reduced production. Output in 1998/99 is expected to expand further to an estimated 86,000 tons as a result of additional new orchards reaching production stage.

 

Chile is tied with Mexico as the world’s third largest avocado exporter. Chile’s exports increased by 177 percent in 1997/98 and are expected to continue strong in 1998/99. Avocado exports in 1998/99 are forecast to increase to 44,000 tons, 3 percent above last year’s revised shipments.

 

Despite continuing efforts by avocado producers and exporters to diversify markets, Chile is still overwhelmingly dependent on the U.S. market. In 1997, the United States accounted for 24 percent of Chile’s avocado exports. For 1998 (first 10 months), Chilean exports to the United States reached 27,944 tons. Other important export markets are Argentina, Costa Rica, El Salvador, and Guatemala.

 

The Chilean Government has no subsidy or special tax incentives for avocado production.

 

South Africa

 

Production in 1998/99 (November/October) is forecast at 75,000 tons, down 4 percent from the 1997/98 record crop of 78,350 tons. The 1997/98 avocado crop was a record due to ideal weather conditions and an increasing percentage of trees coming into bearing or reaching maturity.

 

Exports for 1998/99 are forecast at 45,000 tons, down 6 percent from the 48,000 tons exported during the 1997/98 season. Exports in 1997/98 more than doubled, due to the larger production. Practically all of South Africa’s exports are targeted for the European Union, with the United Kingdom, Belgium, and Switzerland being the largest markets.

 

Spain

 

Avocado production for 1998/99 (July/June) is forecast at 50,000 tons, down 17 percent, following last year’s record crop of 60,000 tons. Ideal growing conditions during 1997/98 are not expected to be repeated for 1998/99.

 

Exports in 1998/99 are forecast at 47,000 tons, a decrease of 14 percent from last year, due to the lower production forecast. About 97 percent of these exports are shipped to other EU countries with France, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands comprising the three largest EU markets.

 

Spanish domestic consumption of avocados is relatively low, about 0.3 kg. per capita. Consumption for 1998/99 is forecast at 8,000 tons and remains firm due to increasing familiarity with the product and increased availability.

 

Israel

 

Avocado production in 1998/99 (October/September) is forecast at 55,000 tons, down 14 percent from last year’s revised estimate due to excessively hot spring weather and scarce water resources.

 

Exports from Israel are forecast to decrease to 30,000 tons, down 14 percent from 1997/98, due to lower production and higher domestic prices vis-a-vis export prices. France remains Israel’s largest export market.

 

Japan

 

Japanese consumption of fresh avocados depends entirely on imports, since there is no domestic production. Fresh avocado consumption has been gradually increasing since being introduced in Japan in the early 1980s. Domestic consumption is forecast at 8,100 tons for the 1998/99 year, an increase of 34 percent from last year.

 

The U.S. and Mexico are the sole avocado suppliers to Japan. Recently, the U.S. share in the Japanese avocado market has been declining while Mexican share has been increasing, due largely to improved quality and price competitiveness of Mexican product.

 

United States

 

Preliminary assessments for 1998/99 indicate production could approximate 140,000 tons, a decrease of 13 percent, due to unfavorable weather including an early freeze in California, and pest problems. The official 1998/99 estimate of U.S. avocado production will be available from USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) in July 1999.

 

U.S. exports of avocados for 1997/98 totaled 4,230 tons, 15 percent below the previous year’s level. Higher prices in foreign markets influenced by a stronger dollar and increased domestic demand discouraged exports. Exports in 1998/99 are forecast to remain at about 4,000 tons.

 

U.S. avocado imports increased significantly in 1997/98 to 47,775 tons, up 76 percent above the previous year. The overwhelming majority came from Chile, over 32,900 tons or 69 percent, followed by Mexico, 7655 tons or 16 percent of the import total. Total U.S. imports in 1998/99 are likely to increase significantly to 60,000 tons, due to the expected smaller U.S. production.

 

The United States imports Mexican processed avocados. In 1997/98, imports increased 21 percent to 15,734 tons. Imports of processed avocados are likely to increase slightly in 1998/99 due to expected increases in imports from Mexico.

 

Supplemented by avocado imports, U.S. consumption in 1997/98 increased 6 percent to 205,251 tons. In 1998/99 consumption is forecast to decrease slightly to 196,000 tons, as the forecast increase in imports is not expected to compensate for the 13 percent decrease in U.S. production.

 

For further information on production, supply, distribution, and trade contact Lisa Anderson, Horticultural and Tropical Products Division, (202) 720-5028. For information on U.S. marketing opportunities, contact Steve Shnitzler at (202) 720-8495.

Last modified: Thursday, April 06, 2000