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Orange Juice Situation in Selected Countries
The United States is expected to be the world's largest orange juice producer in 1997/98, based on a record Florida orange crop and an expected sharp reduction in Sao Paulo, Brazil's orange harvest. The United States is expected to account for about 49 percent of world orange juice production in 1997/98. Florida accounts for more than 95 percent of U.S. production.
U.S. orange juice production in 1997/98 is forecast at a record 1.12 million metric tons, 1 percent below the previous forecast, but 8 percent above the previous year's output. Less oranges are expected to be processed than earlier forecast, based on a reduction in the Florida orange crop from earlier forecast. However, the Florida frozen concentrate orange juice yield forecast has been increased 2 percent to 1.58 million gallons (42 degrees brix).
The United States is the world's second largest orange juice exporter. Exports in 1997/98 are forecast at a record 115,000 tons, 10 percent above last season, but 4 percent below the previous forecast, based on lower exports to date than earlier expected. U.S. orange juice exports to date (December 1997 to April 1998) are running 13 percent behind last year's pace based primarily on reduced sales to Europe. U.S. exports are expected to pick up the pace as the year progresses.
U.S. orange juice imports in 1997/98 are expected to be down from the previous year due to large supplies. Imports to date (December 1997 to April 1998) are running 13 percent ahead of last season's pace.
U.S. orange juice stocks are forecast to increase 25 percent in 1997/98 based on the record orange juice production.
Brazil is expected to be the world's second largest orange juice producer in 1997/98, accounting for more than 40 percent of world production. Brazil, however, is the world's largest orange juice exporter, accounting for nearly 80 percent of world shipments. The state of Sao Paulo accounts for 98 percent of total orange juice produced and exported by Brazil.
Brazil's total orange juice production in 1998 is forecast at 925,000 tons (65 degrees brix), 33 percent below the previous year's output, based on an expected smaller Sao Paulo orange harvest. Orange production is down in Sao Paulo due to unfavorable weather, below average crop management, disease related problems, and the orange trees being physiologically stressed from the previous year's record harvest. Processing is expected to decline sharply in 1998 because of the expected smaller orange harvest. The marketing year 1998/99 processing season has already started and could be extended until March/April 1999, due to the multiple flowerings that occurred in Sao Paulo.
Brazilian orange juice exports in 1998 (Brazilian marketing year 1998/99) are forecast to decrease by 16 percent to 1.045 million metric tons, based on the expected lower production. However, stocks are expected to be drawn down sharply, partly offsetting the lower production.
See Table 3 for more detail on the Brazilian supply/demand situation for oranges and orange juice.
Mexico's orange juice production forecast for 1997/98 has been increased by 60 percent to a record 66,000 tons. More oranges are expected to be processed due to improved international FCOJ prices. It is important to note that FCOJ production in Mexico depends heavily on international prices.
Mexico's orange juice exports in 1997/98 are forecast at a record 62,000 tons, 60 percent above the previous forecast and 47 percent above the previous year's shipments. Mexico's major export market is the United States, with smaller amounts expected to be shipped to Japan and Europe.
No significant changes to other countries since reported.
For further information on supply and distribution contact Joseph Somers, Horticultural & Tropical Products Division at 202-720-2974. For information on U.S. marketing opportunities, contact Ted Goldammer at 202-720-8498.
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