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Hazelnut Situation and Outlook
United States
U.S. hazelnut production is forecast to more than double to
36,000 tons in 1997/98. If realized, this hazelnut crop would be
the largest since 1989/90. Crop progress is somewhat ahead of
normal following nearly 40 days without rain. Several factors
have contributed to this season's large production expectations.
First, with the hazelnut's tendency toward alternate year
bearing, the small crop in 1996/97 points to a larger crop this
year. Second, largely favorable winter and spring conditions
allowed for good catkin development, excellent pollination and a
larger nut set. Some orchards, mainly at higher elevations,
sustained limb breakage resulting from an early November snow
storm; however, crop development was mostly unaffected.
In 1997/98, U.S. hazelnut exports are forecast to rise slightly
to 17,000 tons. In 1996/97 U.S. in-shell exports totaled 9,392
tons with the European Union the major market, accounting for 53
percent of total sales, followed by Canada with 9 percent and
Brazil with 8 percent. Shelled hazelnut exports in 1996/97
totaled 2,697 tons (6,903 tons in-shell equivalent) with China
accounting for 34 percent of total sales followed by Mexico with
12 percent, Israel 10 percent, and Canada 9 percent.
Turkey supplies most of the U.S. imports of shelled hazelnuts and
the European Union all the prepared and preserved hazelnuts.
Turkey
Turkey is the world's largest hazelnut producer, accounting for
75 percent of selected country production. Turkey's hazelnut
production in 1997/98 is forecast at 475,000 tons, slightly below
the previous year's output. Despite abnormally hot weather in the
Giresun area, weather conditions have been mostly normal in other
areas during the early growing season.
Turkey is also the world's largest hazelnut exporter, accounting
for more than 80 percent of selected country exports. Exports in
1997/98 are forecast at 350,000 tons, 7 percent below the
previous year's shipments. The government's new high support
price for hazelnuts and the export tax of $10 U.S. dollars per
100 kilograms will likely make Turkish hazelnut export prices
higher and less competitive.
The Turkish government increased the hazelnut support price 20
percent in U.S. dollar terms for the 1997/98 hazelnut harvest and
140 percent in Turkish Lira (TL) terms to TL 400,000 per kilogram
(U.S.$2.40). This base support price will be increased by TL
25,000 per kilogram every month for the first 4 months of the
season. In comparison, the rate of inflation for the last 12
months was around 85 percent.
Because of the high support price, FISKOBIRLIK (The Union of
Hazelnut Sales Cooperatives) will likely have to buy large
quantities of the 1997/98 Turkish crop, assuming adequate
government funding for the purchases. Last season FISKOBIRLK
bought about 105,000 tons of hazelnuts because of an attractive
support price. These purchases were largely carried over into the
new crop year as stocks, since selling them into the local market
or exporting them would have affected prices.
Domestic consumption in 1997/98 is forecast to increase 67
percent because most of FISKOBIRLK's old crop stocks are expected
to be crushed for oil. In the past, when stocks were crushed for
oil, consumption has exceeded 100,000 tons.
Italy
Italy's hazelnut exports in 1997/98 are expected to decrease due
to reduced supplies resulting from a smaller stock carry-in.
However, Italy's exports could be higher than forecast if high
Turkish price supports result in higher Turkish stocks and
domestic consumption. Italy's exports in 1996/97 are estimated at
68,000 tons, 130 percent above the previous year's volume and the
highest since 1991/92. Italian exports increased last season
because of reduced exports from Turkey, where stocks were built
up sharply due to high domestic support prices.
(For further information on supply, distribution, and
trade contact William Janis at 202-720-0897. For information on
U.S. marketing opportunities, contact Steve Shnitzler at
202-720-8495.)
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