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| Horticultural & Tropical Products Division | Return to the H&TP Home Page |
Summary
World coffee production in 2001/02 is forecast at 115.8 million bags (60 kilograms or 132.276 pounds), down 1.7 percent from the first forecast made in June, and down slightly from the 2000/01 season. Major downward revisions since June, in 60-kilogram bags, occurred in the following countries: Guatemala, 1.1 million bags; Cote d=Ivoire, 534,000 bags; India, 425,000 bags; Colombia, 400,000 bags; and El Salvador, 195,000 bags. Partially offsetting the decreases was an upward revision in Vietnam of 834,000 bags. Brazil=s production remains unchanged at 33.7 million bags. Arabica production in 2001/02 is forecast at 68.9 million bags, down nearly 4 percent from 2000/01 and robusta output is forecast at a record 46.8 million bags, up 2 percent from last season.
Total coffee supply in producing countries in 2001/02 is forecast at 141.5 million bags, up less than 1 percent from the 2000/01 level, but down nearly 3 percent from the forecast made in June 2001. Total supply in some of the key producing countries will decline, mainly the result of lower production. Total supplies of coffee are still at levels that will continue to put downward pressure on prices.
World coffee exports in 2001/02 are forecast to increase by nearly 4 percent, or 3.3 million bags from last year=s level. Brazil=s total exports of coffee in 2001/02 are forecast at 24.0 million bags, an increase of 9 percent from the June 2001 forecast. Colombia=s exports of coffee in 2001/02 are forecast at 9.7 million bags, down 450,000 bags from the June forecast, but up 3 percent from the 2000/01 level. Other major changes from the June export forecast include: Vietnam, up 1.0 million bags; Guatemala, down 1.3 million bags; India, down 1.0 million bags; and El Salvador, down 192,000 bags.
World coffee consumption in 2000/01 is estimated at 111.1 million bags, up slightly (less than 1 percent) from the preliminary 1999/2000 levelB85.0 million bags in importing countries and 26.2 million bags in exporting countries. The breakdown for 1999/2000 is 84.9 million bags in importing countries and 25.5 million bags in exporting countries. Although USDA does not maintain an official database for importing and consuming countries, world consumption is calculated using the information that is available. World consumption can be estimated based on net exports from producing countries, the change in major importers= stock levels, plus consumption in producer countries. Exports from producing countries are assumed to be consumed in the importing countries, after adjusting for changes in the stocks levels in the importing countries. Domestic use in exporting countries in 2001/02 is forecast to increase by 2 percent to 26.8 million bags.
Brazil continues to offer government-owned stocks through its auction system. Auctions began again in July after being suspended following the March 14 auction.
Brazil: Auctions of Government-Owned Coffee Stocks |
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|---|---|---|---|
Date of Auction |
Quantity Offered |
Quantity Sold |
Price Range |
--------60-kilogram bags-------- |
Brazil reais/bag |
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2001 |
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January 17 |
133,615 |
128,239 |
87.00-106.40 |
February 14 |
134,011 |
99,020 |
88.40-95.70 |
March 14 |
135,866 |
38,721 |
84.00-99.30 |
July 11 |
20,000 |
19,715 |
avg. 94.36 |
August 15 |
20,000 |
17,267 |
avg. 90.89 |
September 12 |
20,000 |
18,214 |
avg. 75.00 |
October 17 |
13,949 |
20,000 |
68.00-68.20 |
November 14 |
13,170 |
20,000 |
avg. 75.73 |
United States
U.S. coffee stocks at the end of October totaled 5.6 million bags, down 226,600 bags from the September 30, 2001, level. Details follow in 60-kilogram bags:
Location |
September 30 |
October 31 |
Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
New York |
1,429,865 |
1,356,053 |
(73,812) |
New Orleans |
2,398,890 |
2,385,106 |
(13,784) |
Jacksonville |
169,045 |
142,324 |
(26,721) |
Miami |
1,156,901 |
1,128,492 |
(28,409) |
Houston |
179,219 |
119,839 |
(59,380) |
Laredo |
59,829 |
52,385 |
(7,444) |
Port Everglades |
16,592 |
18,300 |
1,708 |
San Francisco |
289,000 |
261,500 |
(27,500) |
Los Angeles |
4,975 |
4,000 |
(975) |
Seattle |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Norfolk |
81,943 |
89,156 |
7,213 |
Philadelphia |
6,796 |
9,300 |
2,504 |
Baltimore |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Total |
5,793,055 |
5,566,455 |
(226,600) |
Coffee Stocks
in Major Consuming Countries, |
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United States |
Europe |
Japan |
Others |
Total |
|
1,000 bags of 60-kilograms |
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1994/95 |
2,608 |
7,000 |
1,340 |
100 |
11,048 |
1995/96 |
1,611 |
6,400 |
1,089 |
100 |
9,200 |
1996/97 |
2,294 |
7,390 |
1,239 |
100 |
11,023 |
1997/98 |
1,680 |
5,820 |
1,090 |
100 |
8,690 |
1998/99 |
2,824 |
7,200 |
1,420 |
160 |
11,604 |
1999/00 |
6,259 |
9,800 |
1,522 |
160 |
17,741 |
2000/01 |
5,793 |
13,300 |
1,665 |
200 |
20,958 |
Source: Reported statistics and estimates. |
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