World centrifugal sugar production in 2000/01 is
forecast at 124.4 million metric tons (raw value), down 6
percent from the record level set last year and the
lowest outturn in four years. Sugar produced from
sugarcane is forecast at 89.8 million tons, 6 percent
less than last season, and sugar processed from
sugarbeets is forecast at 34.6 million tons, down from 8
percent from last year. The largest production decrease
from a year earlier is forecast in Brazil, down 5.2
million tons, while the largest increase is forecast in
China, up nearly 850,000 tons. World sugar consumption in
2000/01 is forecast at 129.5 million tons, up 1 percent
from the previous year. Moderate consumption increases
are forecast in almost all regions. World exports are
forecast at 33.0 million tons, down 13 percent from last
year’s record level. South American exports are
forecast to decline by 4.4 million tons from a year ago,
while the European Union is expected to export 1.4
million tons less than last season.
Summary
Production
The 2000/01 world centrifugal sugar production is
forecast of 124.4 million metric tons (raw value) is down
6 percent from the record outturn of last season. The
largest decline in sugar production is expected to occur
in Brazil, down 26 percent or 5.2 million tons. In the
European Union, the largest producer of sugar from beets,
the 2000/01 forecast is17.0 million tons, down 13
percent.
Trade
In 2000/2001, world sugar trade is
forecast at 33.0 million tons, approximately 13 percent
below the previous year’s shipments. Brazil and the
European Union are expected to account for most of the
decrease, a combined decrease of 5.9 million tons. This
significant decrease from Brazil is due to a lower area
harvested and a larger percentage of the harvest devoted
to alcohol production. This decrease should help to ease
the overproduction pressures that have depressed the
market in recent years. Additionally, many of the
exporters who were forced to hold large stocks last year
will start to use these supplies to lower the financial
pressure of holding such high stocks levels. Australia,
Brazil, Cuba, and Thailand are all forecast to utilize
the more stable situation to return to more normal levels
of year end carry-over.
Leading importers of sugar in
1999/2000 are Russia, Indonesia, the United States,
Japan, South Korea and the European Union. Russia is
expected to remain the world’s largest sugar
importer, however at much lower levels than in 1999/2000.
Many of the larger importers have imposed or threatened
to impose protective barriers in order to shield their
own producers from the extremely low market prices of the
past several years and will help to keep down imports in
these importers.
Consumption
World sugar consumption in 2000/01
is forecast at a record 129.5 million tons, an increase
of 1 percent above the previous year’s level. This
increase is expected to be driven by incremental
increases in every region except the Former Soviet Union.
Growth in consumption is expected to continue to rise in
the near future as many countries with economic or
political trouble resume faster growth rates. *The
calculation of the World Consumption forecast changed
slightly from the last publication, please see the Note
at the bottom of this page for details.
* Note on Changes to the PSD Format: The format of
the TOTAL WORLD aggregate has been altered to include
"Unrecorded" and "Total Distribution"
columns. Unrecorded imports have been removed from the
"Domestic Consumption". TOTAL WORLD
"Domestic Consumption" is the summation of each
individual country’s consumption. The volume of
unrecorded sugar is a statistical discrepancy between
total world imports and exports which is added to both
the TOTAL WORLD "Imports" and to World Demand
as "Unrecorded" to maintain a balanced Total
Supply and Total Distribution.
