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| Horticultural & Tropical Products Division | Return to the H&TP Home Page |
Almond Situation and Outlook in Selected Countries
Production of almonds in 5 major producing countries in 2002/03 is forecast at 530,884 metric tons (tons) , up 11 percent from 2001/02. The increase was attributed mainly to a 13-percent increase in U.S. output as well as increases in Spain (up 21 percent) and Turkey (up 7 percent). As a result of the higher almond supplies, U.S. almond grower prices are expected to decline. However, low almond prices encourage consumption and have previously boosted U.S. exports to record levels. Exports of almonds from selected countries are forecast at 346,632 tons, up 3 percent from 2001/02, while domestic consumption is expected to reach 226,532 tons, up 5 percent from the previous year. |
World production of almonds is expected to reach almost
531,000 tons in 2002/03, up 11 percent from the previous year.
The United States produces approximately 75 percent of all commercial
almonds worldwide.
The top four producers in 2002/03 are the United States
(530,884 tons), Spain (69,000 tons), Turkey (15,000 tons), and Greece (11,500
tons). Other key producers include
Italy, Australia and Morocco.
Europe
The European Union (EU) has a fruit and vegetable
(F&V) regime in place that is based on producer organizations (POs) that are
voluntarily formed by groups of growers and cooperatives.
However, less than half of all Spanish fruit and vegetable production is
under POs. Only the larger POs that
are able to set-up operational funds are eligible to receive EU support.
The EU supports the operational funds, which are set voluntarily by the
POs each year and may be up to 4.1 percent of the PO’s annual sales.
These funds are generally used for the financing of fruit and vegetable
withdrawal operations (not nuts), and may be used for investments in operational
programs such as improvement of irrigation systems, upgrading technical systems
and environmental protection measures. The Mid Term Review (MTR) of the Common
Agricultural Policy (CAP), as currently proposed by the EU Commission, includes
a new support scheme for tree nuts that nut growers have been long seeking to
replace the temporary tree nut improvement 10 year-program, which ended in June
2002. However, they claim that the
subsidy rate of 100 euros/hectare (ha) is clearly insufficient given current
increased production costs and depressed market prices.
Member countries would have the option of supplementing this payment with
up to an additional 109 euros/ha, but even the maximum payment (209 euros/ha) is
lower than payments from the tree nut improvement program (a minimum of 242.6
euros/ha).
California's 2002/03 almond production is forecast at a
record 530,884 tons, up 4 percent from the May forecast and up 18 percent from
last year's crop. The forecast is
based on 530,000 bearing acres. Production
for the Nonpareil variety is forecast at 370 million meat pounds, up 18 percent
from last season. The Nonpareil
variety represents 38 percent of California's total almond production.
The weather during the critical bloom and pollination period was nearly
ideal this year. However, a freeze
in the Sacramento Valley in early March caused major damage to the crop in
Colusa, Glenn, and Yolo counties. The
warm temperatures in May and June helped the crop develop near or slightly
behind normal progress. The average
nut set per tree is 8,100, up 21 percent from 2001.
The Nonpareil average nut set of 8,043 represents a 25-percent increase
from last year's set. The average
kernel weight for all varieties sampled was 1.41 grams, down 12 percent from
last year. A total 98.9 percent of all nuts sized were sound.
Exports
In 2002/03, U.S. almond exports are forecast at 287,000
tons, up 3 percent from the previous year.
Low almond prices are expected to spur exports.
In 2001/02, shelled almonds, including prepared and preserved, accounted
for approximately 83 percent of total U.S. almond exports.
Major buyers of U.S. shelled almonds were the EU (primarily Germany,
Spain, and the Netherlands) accounting for 62 percent and Asia (primarily Japan,
China, and Korea) purchasing 18 percent. Asia
is the most significant importer of in-shell almonds, purchasing 80 percent of
U.S. in-shell exports in 2001/02.
SPAIN
Production
Spain’s 2002/03 almond production is forecast at 69,000 tons, up 21 percent from the previous season, due to the absence of frost coupled with rainy weather in most growing areas. Almond production takes place mainly in regions bordering the Mediterranean, primarily in Andalusia and Valencia. The regions of Murcia, Catalonia, Aragon, Balearic Islands and Castilla–La Mancha are also significant almond production areas. According to a recent survey, there were 792,000 bearing hectares, of which less than 6 percent were irrigated. Consequently, rainfall during the fall is crucial to almond productivity. Producer prices in 2001 for in-shell almonds averaged $.64 per kilo, a 3-percent decline from 2000.
Consumption
Domestic almond consumption is projected to increase in 2002/03 due to a general upward tendency in nut consumption and the larger sizes of the last two domestic harvests. Tree nuts are a traditional component of the Mediterranean diet, which is being heavily promoted as a healthy diet. Due to increased health awareness, tree nut consumption has grown in Spain over the past several years with almonds leading the way. The confectionary industry accounts for about 75 percent of Spanish consumption of almonds, and most of the balance is consumed as snacks. The nougat industry is a major consumer of almonds as well. Nearly all of the industry’s consumption occurs in the months before Christmas, with nougat being a traditional holiday treat.
Exports
Exports in 2002/03 are forecast at 56,500 tons, a
5-percent increase from the previous year, due to the larger crop.
Other EU countries (Germany, France, and Italy) are the major
destinations, representing approximately 93 percent of Spain’s export markets.
Almond imports in 2002/03 are forecast to decrease slightly.
The United States continues to be the dominant foreign supplier of
almonds to Spain, increasing its market share to around 97 percent of total
imports in 2001/02. Due to the
uniformity and low breakage of U.S. almonds, processors generally prefer them
for food ingredients, including almond flour, dices and fillets.
More than half of all U.S. almonds imported into Spain are subsequently
re-exported in some form to other EU countries.
Two tariff categories for non-bitter almonds are listed in the Integrated
Tariff of the European Union (TARIC). The
current import duty rates are as follows:
0802.11.90 In-shell almonds: 5.6 percent
0802.12.90 Shelled almonds: 3.5 percent
However, a WTO global EU annual tariff quota of 90,000 tons at a reduced import duty rate of 2 percent is applicable, and Spanish almond importers may benefit from this tariff quota for imports from outside the EU. As is the case with locally produced food products, a 7-percent Value Added Tax (VAT) is imposed on almond imports.
TURKEY
Production
In 2002/03, almond production in Turkey is forecast at
15,000 tons, unchanged from the previous year.
Almonds are a minor nut crop in Turkey.
They are grown throughout the country with production concentrated in the
Aegean, Marmara and Mediterranean regions.
Most production is grown in orchards for commercial use.
Almonds grow naturally in Turkey, but were not cultivated as a commercial
crop until recently. Varietal selection during the past 25 years has resulted in
improvement of local varieties that are now grafted to both improve quality and
yield as well as to delay blooming, since early frosts are a major problem in
Turkey. Other than variations due
to weather conditions, almond production in Turkey is relatively stable.
Consumption
In the past, almond consumption grew slowly in Turkey
despite the availability of hazelnuts. Due
to the recent economic crisis in Turkey, almond consumption has declined
slightly. Almonds are generally
consumed whole as a snack food and only limited amounts are used in
confectionary products. The retail
price for one kilogram of shelled sweet roasted almonds in Ankara is around
Turkish Lira (TL) 18,000,000 for local and good quality imported almonds (such
as U.S. almonds), compared to TL 12,000,000 a year ago.
GREECE
Production
Greece’s 2002/03 almond production is forecast at
11,500 tons (shelled basis), down 12 percent after a bad winter with snowstorms
and extremely low temperatures that seriously affected tree production in most
of the regions. Some of the tree
population will recover and next year’s output will probably return to normal
levels. The quality of the 2002/03
crop is expected to be very good. Due
to the cyclical nature of tree
yields and relatively stable tree numbers, with a slightly downward trend, the
outlook for almond production over the next 3 to 5 years is estimated to average
about 13,500-14,000 tons/annum (shelled basis), provided that weather conditions
will be favorable and without extremes, unlike the weather experienced in 2002.
The main areas for traditional almond production in Greece are in the
prefectures of Magnesia, Larisa (Thessaly) and Serres and Kavala (E. Macedonia),
where 70 percent of the national almond tree population is concentrated. Yields
vary, with the best size and quality kernels being those of the late blossoming
Feragnes variety, which are produced in central Greece and Macedonia. The actual
planted area has decreased to approximately 39,000 hectares without a drop in
yields, which is due to better growing methods and more trees per area unit.
Old, non-yielding orchards and aged, scattered trees have been uprooted,
or otherwise taken out of a harvesting program.
A non-uniform
product characterizes Greek almond production and supply, due to the many
varieties harvested, the variable effects of weather, and the different ages of
trees. The cost of production,
which is much higher than in other almond-producing countries, is another
problem. Farmers prefer to focus on
other crops whenever possible. This situation makes the Greek market a further
potential market for U.S. almonds, taking into consideration that domestic
demand is gradually increasing.
Consumption
Domestic annual consumption of almonds is roughly
16,000-17,000 tons and increasing slowly but steadily from year to year, with
Greece being among the largest per capita tree nut consumers in the world.
Consumption has risen almost 30 percent since 1991 and is expected to
continue growing parallel to an annual increase in tourism and the use of nuts
in confectionary, bakery and ice cream industries.
Almond consumption represents 26 percent of total nut consumption in the
country, which is estimated at 60,000 tons (including pistachios, peanuts,
hazelnuts, walnuts, and various kinds of imported nuts). These consumption
figures include snack, confectionary, ice cream, and bakery uses. Trade sources
report that this tree nut consumption increase is taking place not only in
Greece, but all over the world, estimated at 15-20 percent over the past 2
years. Trade sources also comment
that this change is due to an aggressive U.S. market promotion activity, a
better priced product and the fact that new markets were recently developed and
became oriented to almond consumption.
Exports
Exports in 2002/03 are forecast at 700 tons, down 42
percent from the previous year. In
Calendar Year (CY) 2000 (the most recent official trade data published) $7.4
million in almonds were imported; $8.1 million were imported in 1999; and $9.2
million were imported in 1998, mostly from the United States. (70-85 percent)
and Spain (10-15 percent). Exports
of Greek almonds in CY 2000 totaled 1,127 tons, valued at only $3.26 million, as
compared to $2.86 million in 1999. Half
of this was exported to other EU states and half to Bulgaria, Cyprus, Iran and
other developing countries. Imported product was primarily used by the
confectionary and chocolate industries. Imports
tend to decrease when there is excess carry over.
Pre-processed U.S. almonds (roasted and flavored in canned packages) are
used in developing a snack food market, as consumers like their quality and
uniformity. However, U.S. nuts are
mainly used for further processing to meat halves, almond powder and slices,
ultimately by the confectionary sector.
ITALY
Production
Commercial almond production in 2002 is preliminarily
forecast at 9,000 tons (shelled basis), half the good crop harvested last year.
Weather conditions have been not been favorable in either Apulia or
Sicily, the two key producing regions. However,
while in Sicily the orchards have been affected by a continued drought, which
compromised the yields per tree, in Apulia the main factor was frost reported in
early April, which cut dramatically the crop perspectives.
Furthermore, some observers tie the production decrease to the cyclical
crop fluctuation, which is more pronounced in Italy’s ageing almond trees.
Since only a minimal number of new orchards have been planted recently, Italian
almond production, in the medium to long term, is expected to decline.
Consumption
Domestic almond consumption is projected to increase in 2002/03 due to a general upward tendency in nut consumption. Tree nuts are a traditional component of the Mediterranean diet, which is being heavily promoted as a healthy diet. Due to increased health awareness, tree nut consumption has grown in Italy over the past several years with almonds leading the way. Relatively cheap almond prices are favoring domestic consumption, in partial substitution for other, more expensive nuts. Imported almonds are mostly consumed in northern Italy, while local almonds are more popular in the south, where Italian production is concentrated.
Trade
Total almond imports in 2001/02 decreased slightly from
the previous year, due mainly to the relatively large domestic crop.
Imports were favored by the low international prices, particularly from
the United States. Shipments from
California to Italy rose by 24 percent and accounted for 64 percent of total
Italian imports. Total imports in
2002/03 are anticipated to increase substantially, following the expected major
decline in domestic production.
The current EU ad valorem customs duty for shelled
almonds is 2 percent for imports within the EU-wide quota of 90,000 tons, and
3.5 percent for imports over the quota. The
EU export subsidy for shelled almonds is currently set at 45 euros per metric
ton.
The FAS Attaché Report search engine contains
reports on Tree Nut Competition or Market Intelligence for 16 countries
including Spain, Italy, Greece and Turkey.
For more information on production and trade, contact Erik Hansen at
202-720-0875. For information on
marketing, contact Ingrid Mohn at 202-720-5330. Also please visit the tree nuts web page at:
http://www.fas.usda.gov/htp/horticulture/nuts.html for further information.
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Almonds:
Production, Supply and Distribution in Selected Countries |
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Country |
Beginning |
Production |
Imports |
Total |
Exports |
Domestic |
Ending |
|
Marketing
Year 1/ |
Stocks |
|
|
Supply |
|
Consumption |
Stocks |
|
|
|
|
Metric
tons, in-shell basis |
|
|
||
|
Greece |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1999/2000 |
3,623 |
17,000 |
2,000 |
22,623 |
2,800 |
14,700 |
5,123 |
|
2000/2001 |
5,123 |
15,500 |
2,500 |
23,123 |
1,000 |
16,000 |
6,123 |
|
2001/2002 |
6,123 |
13,000 |
2,500 |
21,623 |
1,200 |
17,000 |
3,423 |
|
2002/2003 |
3,423 |
11,500 |
3,500 |
18,423 |
700 |
16,400 |
1,323 |
|
2003/2004
F |
1,323 |
13,000 |
3,650 |
17,973 |
800 |
16,250 |
923 |
|
Italy |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1999/2000 |
1,000 |
17,000 |
16,400 |
34,400 |
2,000 |
30,400 |
2,000 |
|
2000/2001 |
2,000 |
10,000 |
16,000 |
28,000 |
2,200 |
24,800 |
1,000 |
|
2001/2002 |
1,000 |
18,000 |
15,000 |
34,000 |
3,000 |
25,000 |
6,000 |
|
2002/2003 |
6,000 |
9,000 |
17,000 |
32,000 |
2,000 |
28,000 |
2,000 |
|
2003/2004
F |
2,000 |
15,000 |
15,000 |
32,000 |
2,000 |
28,000 |
2,000 |
|
Spain |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1999/2000 |
0 |
66,000 |
34,000 |
100,000 |
43,000 |
52,000 |
5,000 |
|
2000/2001 |
5,000 |
53,000 |
32,000 |
90,000 |
51,000 |
38,500 |
500 |
|
2001/2002 |
500 |
57,000 |
42,000 |
99,500 |
54,000 |
45,000 |
500 |
|
2002/2003 |
500 |
69,000 |
40,000 |
109,500 |
56,500 |
50,000 |
3,000 |
|
2003/2004
F |
3,000 |
58,000 |
43,000 |
104,000 |
54,000 |
49,000 |
1,000 |
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Turkey |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1999/2000 |
1,000 |
14,000 |
2,000 |
17,000 |
200 |
14,800 |
2,000 |
|
2000/2001 |
2,000 |
15,500 |
2,500 |
20,000 |
500 |
16,500 |
3,000 |
|
2001/2002 |
3,000 |
14,000 |
1,500 |
18,500 |
500 |
16,000 |
2,000 |
|
2002/2003 |
2,000 |
15,000 |
1,500 |
18,500 |
500 |
16,000 |
2,000 |
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2003/2004
F |
2,000 |
15,000 |
2,000 |
19,000 |
500 |
16,500 |
2,000 |
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United
States 2/ 3/ |
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|
1999/2000 |
41,656 |
361,362 |
103 |
403,121 |
228,171 |
95,185 |
79,765 |
|
2000/2001 |
79,765 |
303,700 |
28 |
383,493 |
239,802 |
95,020 |
48,671 |
|
2001/2002 |
48,671 |
376,488 |
80 |
425,239 |
279,463 |
113,076 |
32,700 |
|
2002/2003 |
32,700 |
426,384 |
59 |
459,143 |
286,932 |
116,132 |
56,079 |
|
2003/2004
F |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
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Total |
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|
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1999/2000 |
47,279 |
475,362 |
54,503 |
577,144 |
276,171 |
207,085 |
93,888 |
|
2000/2001 |
93,888 |
397,700 |
53,028 |
544,616 |
294,502 |
190,820 |
59,294 |
|
2001/2002 |
59,294 |
478,488 |
61,080 |
598,862 |
338,163 |
216,076 |
44,623 |
|
2002/2003 |
44,623 |
530,884 |
62,059 |
637,566 |
346,632 |
226,532 |
64,402 |
|
2003/2004
F |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
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1/ Marketing years:
United States - August to July; Greece – Oct. – Sept.; Spain, Italy
& Turkey - Sep to Aug |
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2/
U.S. domestic shelling ratios for U.S. exports and imports from the
California Walnut Commission. |
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3/
U.S. production forecast for 2002/03 by NASS. |
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Sources:
USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service Attaché Reports, Bureau of Census and
USDA/NASS |
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U.S. Exports of
Almonds to the World
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Destination
|
1997/98 |
1998/99 |
1999/00 |
2000/01 |
2001/02 |
Rank
in 2001/02 |
|
|
metric tons, shelled, in-shell & processed total |
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Germany |
45,643 |
38,870 |
38,516 |
43,169 |
40,931 |
1 |
|
Spain |
19,019 |
22,502 |
25,416 |
28,425 |
39,392 |
2 |
|
India |
20,017 |
14,665 |
22,182 |
26,516 |
32,921 |
3 |
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Japan |
22,485 |
16,505 |
18,905 |
21,432 |
26,309 |
4 |
|
Belgium-Luxembourg |
5,190 |
4,900 |
6,298 |
11,019 |
16,004 |
5 |
|
Netherlands |
12,694 |
11,677 |
11,172 |
14,071 |
15,243 |
6 |
|
Canada |
9,328 |
9,780 |
11,248 |
11,199 |
12,295 |
7 |
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France |
11,303 |
9,946 |
9,980 |
11,276 |
12,206 |
8 |
|
Hong
Kong |
3,030 |
3,407 |
8,625 |
12,964 |
11,010 |
9 |
|
United
Arab Emirates |
4,693 |
4,504 |
4,950 |
9,938 |
10,902 |
10 |
|
Italy |
7,596 |
8,921 |
6,355 |
7,595 |
9,496 |
11 |
|
United
Kingdom |
11,413 |
10,255 |
8,463 |
7,832 |
8,385 |
12 |
|
Korea;
Republic of |
2,633 |
2,666 |
3,192 |
4,898 |
5,463 |
13 |
|
Mexico |
4,500 |
5,780 |
7,474 |
5,722 |
5,171 |
14 |
|
Denmark |
3,671
|
3,201 |
3,495 |
4,041 |
4,374 |
15 |
|
Greece |
2,383 |
2,438 |
1,915 |
2,731 |
3,732 |
16 |
|
Russian
Federation |
968 |
105 |
268 |
749 |
3,364 |
17 |
|
Taiwan |
2,844 |
1,965 |
2,226 |
3,597 |
3,290 |
18 |
|
Israel |
2,955 |
2,463 |
2,891 |
2,779 |
3,117 |
19 |
|
Saudi
Arabia |
2,350 |
2,055 |
2,138 |
3,277 |
3,031 |
20 |
|
Sweden |
3,632 |
2,818 |
1,749 |
2,579 |
2,524 |
21 |
|
China;
Peoples Republic of |
312 |
231 |
1,342 |
1,931 |
2,404 |
22 |
|
Egypt |
1,311 |
1,562 |
1,001 |
1,368 |
1,425 |
23 |
|
Norway |
1,625 |
1,591 |
1,699 |
1,316 |
1,339 |
24 |
|
Jordan |
820 |
353 |
547 |
1,284 |
1,273 |
25 |
|
Turkey |
213 |
190 |
116 |
322 |
1,234 |
26 |
|
Malaysia |
545 |
509 |
597 |
839 |
1,030 |
27 |
|
Lebanon |
1,538 |
1,174 |
922 |
1,424 |
921 |
28 |
|
Czech
Republic |
568 |
33 |
549 |
762 |
898 |
29 |
|
Singapore |
564 |
832 |
831 |
679 |
797 |
30 |
|
Finland |
602 |
566 |
346 |
573 |
752 |
31 |
|
Australia |
1,877 |
1,381 |
1,014 |
538 |
748 |
32 |
|
Other
Countries |
10,677 |
8,866 |
7,074 |
8,134 |
7,659 |
|
|
Grand Total (MT) |
218,999 |
196,911 |
213,496 |
254,979 |
289,640 |
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1/
Marketing years, August-July |
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Note:
All data from Department of Commerce - Bureau of the Census |
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U.S. Imports of Almonds from the World
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Destination
|
1997/98 |
1998/99 |
1999/00 |
2000/01 |
2001/02 |
Rank
in 2001/02 |
|
|
Metric tons, shelled, in-shell & processed total |
|
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|
Italy |
3 |
4 |
8 |
85 |
190 |
1 |
|
Spain |
5 |
4 |
3 |
5 |
96 |
2 |
|
Denmark |
0 |
0 |
29 |
54 |
56 |
3 |
|
China;
Peoples Republic of |
10 |
30 |
28 |
44 |
21 |
4 |
|
Canada |
21 |
20 |
8 |
14 |
20 |
5 |
|
Germany |
0 |
0 |
4 |
4 |
14 |
6 |
|
Hong
Kong |
10 |
14 |
17 |
15 |
14 |
7 |
|
Sweden |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
8 |
|
Switzerland |
0 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
4 |
9 |
|
France |
3 |
6 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
10 |
|
Other
Countries |
5 |
12 |
3 |
33 |
4 |
|
|
Grand Total (MT) |
58 |
93 |
107 |
258 |
428 |
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1/
Marketing years, August-July |
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Note:
All data from Department of Commerce - Bureau of the Census |
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