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Almond Situation and Outlook in Selected Countries 

GLOBAL PRODUCTION & TRADE

World production of almonds is expected to reach almost 531,000 tons in 2002/03, up 11 percent from the previous year.  The United States produces approximately 75 percent of all commercial almonds worldwide.      

The top four producers in 2002/03 are the United States (530,884 tons), Spain (69,000 tons), Turkey (15,000 tons), and Greece (11,500 tons).  Other key producers include Italy, Australia and Morocco. 

GLOBAL POLICY

Europe

The European Union (EU) has a fruit and vegetable (F&V) regime in place that is based on producer organizations (POs) that are voluntarily formed by groups of growers and cooperatives.  However, less than half of all Spanish fruit and vegetable production is under POs.  Only the larger POs that are able to set-up operational funds are eligible to receive EU support.  The EU supports the operational funds, which are set voluntarily by the POs each year and may be up to 4.1 percent of the PO’s annual sales.  These funds are generally used for the financing of fruit and vegetable withdrawal operations (not nuts), and may be used for investments in operational programs such as improvement of irrigation systems, upgrading technical systems and environmental protection measures. The Mid Term Review (MTR) of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), as currently proposed by the EU Commission, includes a new support scheme for tree nuts that nut growers have been long seeking to replace the temporary tree nut improvement 10 year-program, which ended in June 2002.  However, they claim that the subsidy rate of 100 euros/hectare (ha) is clearly insufficient given current increased production costs and depressed market prices.  Member countries would have the option of supplementing this payment with up to an additional 109 euros/ha, but even the maximum payment (209 euros/ha) is lower than payments from the tree nut improvement program (a minimum of 242.6 euros/ha). 

UNITED STATES

Production

California's 2002/03 almond production is forecast at a record 530,884 tons, up 4 percent from the May forecast and up 18 percent from last year's crop.  The forecast is based on 530,000 bearing acres.  Production for the Nonpareil variety is forecast at 370 million meat pounds, up 18 percent from last season.  The Nonpareil variety represents 38 percent of California's total almond production.  The weather during the critical bloom and pollination period was nearly ideal this year.  However, a freeze in the Sacramento Valley in early March caused major damage to the crop in Colusa, Glenn, and Yolo counties.  The warm temperatures in May and June helped the crop develop near or slightly behind normal progress.  The average nut set per tree is 8,100, up 21 percent from 2001.  The Nonpareil average nut set of 8,043 represents a 25-percent increase from last year's set.  The average kernel weight for all varieties sampled was 1.41 grams, down 12 percent from last year. A total 98.9 percent of all nuts sized were sound. 

Exports

In 2002/03, U.S. almond exports are forecast at 287,000 tons, up 3 percent from the previous year.  Low almond prices are expected to spur exports.  In 2001/02, shelled almonds, including prepared and preserved, accounted for approximately 83 percent of total U.S. almond exports.  Major buyers of U.S. shelled almonds were the EU (primarily Germany, Spain, and the Netherlands) accounting for 62 percent and Asia (primarily Japan, China, and Korea) purchasing 18 percent.  Asia is the most significant importer of in-shell almonds, purchasing 80 percent of U.S. in-shell exports in 2001/02. 

SPAIN 

Production

Spain’s 2002/03 almond production is forecast at 69,000 tons, up 21 percent from the previous season, due to the absence of frost coupled with rainy weather in most growing areas.  Almond production takes place mainly in regions bordering the Mediterranean, primarily in Andalusia and Valencia.  The regions of Murcia, Catalonia, Aragon, Balearic Islands and Castilla–La Mancha are also significant almond production areas.  According to a recent survey, there were 792,000 bearing hectares, of which less than 6 percent were irrigated.  Consequently, rainfall during the fall is crucial to almond productivity.  Producer prices in 2001 for in-shell almonds averaged $.64 per kilo, a 3-percent decline from 2000. 

Consumption

Domestic almond consumption is projected to increase in 2002/03 due to a general upward tendency in nut consumption and the larger sizes of the last two domestic harvests.  Tree nuts are a traditional component of the Mediterranean diet, which is being heavily promoted as a healthy diet.  Due to increased health awareness, tree nut consumption has grown in Spain over the past several years with almonds leading the way.  The confectionary industry accounts for about 75 percent of Spanish consumption of almonds, and most of the balance is consumed as snacks.  The nougat industry is a major consumer of almonds as well.  Nearly all of the industry’s consumption occurs in the months before Christmas, with nougat being a traditional holiday treat. 

Exports

Exports in 2002/03 are forecast at 56,500 tons, a 5-percent increase from the previous year, due to the larger crop.  Other EU countries (Germany, France, and Italy) are the major destinations, representing approximately 93 percent of Spain’s export markets.  Almond imports in 2002/03 are forecast to decrease slightly.  The United States continues to be the dominant foreign supplier of almonds to Spain, increasing its market share to around 97 percent of total imports in 2001/02.  Due to the uniformity and low breakage of U.S. almonds, processors generally prefer them for food ingredients, including almond flour, dices and fillets.  More than half of all U.S. almonds imported into Spain are subsequently re-exported in some form to other EU countries.  Two tariff categories for non-bitter almonds are listed in the Integrated Tariff of the European Union (TARIC).  The current import duty rates are as follows: 

0802.11.90   In-shell almonds: 5.6 percent

0802.12.90   Shelled almonds: 3.5 percent

However, a WTO global EU annual tariff quota of 90,000 tons at a reduced import duty rate of 2 percent is applicable, and Spanish almond importers may benefit from this tariff quota for imports from outside the EU.  As is the case with locally produced food products, a 7-percent Value Added Tax (VAT) is imposed on almond imports.

TURKEY

Production

In 2002/03, almond production in Turkey is forecast at 15,000 tons, unchanged from the previous year.  Almonds are a minor nut crop in Turkey.  They are grown throughout the country with production concentrated in the Aegean, Marmara and Mediterranean regions.  Most production is grown in orchards for commercial use.  Almonds grow naturally in Turkey, but were not cultivated as a commercial crop until recently.  Varietal selection during the past 25 years has resulted in improvement of local varieties that are now grafted to both improve quality and yield as well as to delay blooming, since early frosts are a major problem in Turkey.  Other than variations due to weather conditions, almond production in Turkey is relatively stable. 

Consumption

In the past, almond consumption grew slowly in Turkey despite the availability of hazelnuts.  Due to the recent economic crisis in Turkey, almond consumption has declined slightly.  Almonds are generally consumed whole as a snack food and only limited amounts are used in confectionary products.  The retail price for one kilogram of shelled sweet roasted almonds in Ankara is around Turkish Lira (TL) 18,000,000 for local and good quality imported almonds (such as U.S. almonds), compared to TL 12,000,000 a year ago.  

GREECE 

Production

Greece’s 2002/03 almond production is forecast at 11,500 tons (shelled basis), down 12 percent after a bad winter with snowstorms and extremely low temperatures that seriously affected tree production in most of the regions.  Some of the tree population will recover and next year’s output will probably return to normal levels.  The quality of the 2002/03 crop is expected to be very good.  Due to the cyclical  nature of tree yields and relatively stable tree numbers, with a slightly downward trend, the outlook for almond production over the next 3 to 5 years is estimated to average about 13,500-14,000 tons/annum (shelled basis), provided that weather conditions will be favorable and without extremes, unlike the weather experienced in 2002.  The main areas for traditional almond production in Greece are in the prefectures of Magnesia, Larisa (Thessaly) and Serres and Kavala (E. Macedonia), where 70 percent of the national almond tree population is concentrated. Yields vary, with the best size and quality kernels being those of the late blossoming Feragnes variety, which are produced in central Greece and Macedonia. The actual planted area has decreased to approximately 39,000 hectares without a drop in yields, which is due to better growing methods and more trees per area unit.  Old, non-yielding orchards and aged, scattered trees have been uprooted, or otherwise taken out of a harvesting program.  

A non-uniform product characterizes Greek almond production and supply, due to the many varieties harvested, the variable effects of weather, and the different ages of trees.  The cost of production, which is much higher than in other almond-producing countries, is another problem.  Farmers prefer to focus on other crops whenever possible. This situation makes the Greek market a further potential market for U.S. almonds, taking into consideration that domestic demand is gradually increasing. 

Consumption

Domestic annual consumption of almonds is roughly 16,000-17,000 tons and increasing slowly but steadily from year to year, with Greece being among the largest per capita tree nut consumers in the world.  Consumption has risen almost 30 percent since 1991 and is expected to continue growing parallel to an annual increase in tourism and the use of nuts in confectionary, bakery and ice cream industries.  Almond consumption represents 26 percent of total nut consumption in the country, which is estimated at 60,000 tons (including pistachios, peanuts, hazelnuts, walnuts, and various kinds of imported nuts). These consumption figures include snack, confectionary, ice cream, and bakery uses. Trade sources report that this tree nut consumption increase is taking place not only in Greece, but all over the world, estimated at 15-20 percent over the past 2 years.  Trade sources also comment that this change is due to an aggressive U.S. market promotion activity, a better priced product and the fact that new markets were recently developed and became oriented to almond consumption.  

Exports

Exports in 2002/03 are forecast at 700 tons, down 42 percent from the previous year.  In Calendar Year (CY) 2000 (the most recent official trade data published) $7.4 million in almonds were imported; $8.1 million were imported in 1999; and $9.2 million were imported in 1998, mostly from the United States. (70-85 percent) and Spain (10-15 percent).  Exports of Greek almonds in CY 2000 totaled 1,127 tons, valued at only $3.26 million, as compared to $2.86 million in 1999.  Half of this was exported to other EU states and half to Bulgaria, Cyprus, Iran and other developing countries. Imported product was primarily used by the confectionary and chocolate industries.  Imports tend to decrease when there is excess carry over.  Pre-processed U.S. almonds (roasted and flavored in canned packages) are used in developing a snack food market, as consumers like their quality and uniformity.  However, U.S. nuts are mainly used for further processing to meat halves, almond powder and slices, ultimately by the confectionary sector. 

ITALY 

Production

Commercial almond production in 2002 is preliminarily forecast at 9,000 tons (shelled basis), half the good crop harvested last year.  Weather conditions have been not been favorable in either Apulia or Sicily, the two key producing regions.  However, while in Sicily the orchards have been affected by a continued drought, which compromised the yields per tree, in Apulia the main factor was frost reported in early April, which cut dramatically the crop perspectives.  Furthermore, some observers tie the production decrease to the cyclical crop fluctuation, which is more pronounced in Italy’s ageing almond trees.  Since only a minimal number of new orchards have been planted recently, Italian almond production, in the medium to long term, is expected to decline. 

Consumption

Domestic almond consumption is projected to increase in 2002/03 due to a general upward tendency in nut consumption.  Tree nuts are a traditional component of the Mediterranean diet, which is being heavily promoted as a healthy diet.  Due to increased health awareness, tree nut consumption has grown in Italy over the past several years with almonds leading the way.  Relatively cheap almond prices are favoring domestic consumption, in partial substitution for other, more expensive nuts.  Imported almonds are mostly consumed in northern Italy, while local almonds are more popular in the south, where Italian production is concentrated.

Trade

Total almond imports in 2001/02 decreased slightly from the previous year, due mainly to the relatively large domestic crop.  Imports were favored by the low international prices, particularly from the United States.  Shipments from California to Italy rose by 24 percent and accounted for 64 percent of total Italian imports.  Total imports in 2002/03 are anticipated to increase substantially, following the expected major decline in domestic production. 

The current EU ad valorem customs duty for shelled almonds is 2 percent for imports within the EU-wide quota of 90,000 tons, and 3.5 percent for imports over the quota.  The EU export subsidy for shelled almonds is currently set at 45 euros per metric ton. 

The FAS Attaché Report search engine contains reports on Tree Nut Competition or Market Intelligence for 16 countries including Spain, Italy, Greece and Turkey.  For more information on production and trade, contact Erik Hansen at 202-720-0875.  For information on marketing, contact Ingrid Mohn at 202-720-5330.  Also please visit the tree nuts web page at:

http://www.fas.usda.gov/htp/horticulture/nuts.html for further information.