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| Horticultural & Tropical Products Division | Return to the H&TP Home Page |
Dried Fruit (Raisin) Situation and Outlook In Selected Countries
Raisin production in key producing countries in 2002/03 is forecast at 762,154 metric tons, a 10-percent increase from the previous year. In selected northern hemisphere countries, production is forecast to increase by 9 percent in 2002/03 (September 2002 - August 2003). Production in Turkey and Greece is projected to increase by a combined 18 percent as recently planted orchards begin to add to production yields and favorable weather conditions prevail. Mexico’s production is expected to fall slightly due to adverse economic conditions. In the southern hemisphere, total raisin production in Australia, Chile and South Africa is forecast at 112,000 metric tons (tons), a 22-percent increase from the previous year. Overall, total exports from these selected countries are expected to increase due to the larger crops and the implementation of more aggressive exporting strategies. |
GLOBAL PRODUCTION & TRADE
The United States and Turkey are the largest raisin producers in the world. Combined, these two countries are expected to generate more than 553,802 tons of raisins in 2001/02. This accounts for more than 80 percent of the production among the world’s key raisin producing countries.
The top four producers in 2001/02 are the United States (353,802 tons), Turkey (200,000 tons), Chile (41,500 tons) and South Africa (37,000 tons). Other major producers include Greece, Australia and Mexico.
Key Raisin Producing Countries in the Northern Hemisphere
Greece
Normal temperatures prevailed during the 2001/02 raisin growing season resulting in a 5-percent production increase. Raisin production for 2002/03 (September 2002 – August 2003) is expected to increase to 29,000 tons as a result of continued favorable weather conditions.
Lower priced exports from Turkey adversely affected Greece’s trade activity in 2001/02. Traditional export markets for Greek raisins, including the United Kingdom (U.K.) and Germany, were primarily supplied with lower-priced Turkish sultanas. Traders reported that export prices (FOB Basis) for Greek sultanas fluctuated between 0.85-0.87 euros/kg for grade No 2. and 0.83-0.84 euros/kg for grade No. 4. According to local sources, Turkish sultanas entered the market with an FOB price at about 0.66 euros/kg. Greek raisin exports are expected to rebound in 2002/03 as the Turkish lira appreciates.
Raisin imports to Greece are minimal. In 2001/02, imports totaled 500 tons and trade conditions are unlikely to change.
Turkey
2001/02 raisin production is expected to be slightly lower due to lower supplies and appreciation of the Turkish lira. The 2002/03 crop is forecast to increase by more than 26 percent as weather conditions and recently-planted orchards begin to bear fruit. The industry has, in recent years, sought to improve the quality of Turkish raisins through better growing, harvesting, and drying techniques designed to improve cleanliness. Improvements have included the widespread use of trellises, increasing use of small plastic harvest crates (rather than sacks to minimize compaction), and the widespread use of concrete drying beds and/or plastic sheeting. Private processors have financed most of these improvements and much of the capital was derived from higher export prices obtained as a result of the EU's minimum import price system. In general, Turkish raisins are lighter in color and rounder than California raisins. The color difference is due to the fact that lye is used to speed the drying of Turkish sultanas.
Turkey exports approximately 80 percent of its raisin production annually and is the largest raisin exporter in the world. Turkey’s exports account for nearly 50 percent of all the raisin exports shipped among the key raising producing countries in the last four years. In 2002/03, an anticipated larger raisin crop is expected to increase exports by 11 percent to 210,000 tons. Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Italy are the leading export markets for Turkish raisins. Due to increased global competition from South Africa, Australia and Greece, the Turkish Government has attempted to find new markets for Turkish exporters and continues its efforts to expand its presence in the United States market.
Raisin imports by Turkey remain relatively small at 1,000 tons. Although the government recently announced that the import duty on raisins of all origins was being reduced from 56.7 percent to 56.1 percent, this minimal reduction is unlikely to have an effect on raisin imports.
Mexico
Lower prices and lack of available credit are likely to decrease 2002/03 production by 12 percent to 13, 200 tons. Lower domestic and international prices are diverting some raisins for the wine and juice markets. Declining water resources are exacerbating the worsening conditions and are also expected to limit future raisin expansion.
Exports in 2002/03 are forecast to remain at 6,000 tons as a result of continued low raisin prices. The highest quality production is usually exported, mainly to the United States, and the rest is packaged for domestic consumers or used as food ingredients by the domestic baking and food processing industries.
Lower quality imports
generally fill the void left by lower domestic production and raisin
exports. In 2001/02, imports
totaled 11,200 tons, primarily supplied by lower quality and lower-priced
imports from Chile. Chile
accounted for 86 percent of the total 1999/2000 and 2000/01 raisin imports
by Mexico. Imported raisins,
other than from the United States and Chile, have an import tariff of 23
percent. Under the North
American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), both Mexico and the United States
allow raisins to enter duty-free. Chilean
raisins also enter duty-free under the existing Chile-Mexico FTA.
United States
Raisin production for 2001/02 is estimated at 353,802 tons, down 20 percent from the previous year’s record. Large stock levels and depressed prices continue to hamper the U.S. raisin industry. The 2002/03 crop is forecast to increase by 4 percent to 368,000 tons.
Large stock levels and competitive prices are expected to increase U.S. raisin exports for 2001/02 and 2002/03. U.S. raisin exports for August-April 2001/02 are up almost 2 percent from the same period in 2000/01. U.S. export to Malaysia jumped sharply during this period to 1,209 tons from 476 tons. The United Kingdom, Japan and Canada remain major markets for U.S. raisins.
Overall U.S. raisin imports are 17 percent higher between August-March 2001/02 compared to the same period a year ago, as a result of lower-priced products coming in from South America. Raisin imports from Argentina have risen significantly to 1,846 tons from 707 tons. Mexico’s exports to the U.S. are up 16 percent. Imports are forecast to decline slightly as domestic prices for raisins continue to fall in 2002/03.
The Raisin Administrative Committee (RAC) requested $2,900,000 in Market Access Program (MAP) funding to continue marketing activities in Asia, Scandinavia and the United Kingdom in 2002. RAC=s main strategy will be to convince the trade sector of the value added qualities of raisins. Activities for this sector will include a variety of technical (baking) seminars, trade shows and new product development contests to communicate the message that raisins have value added qualities. In certain countries RAC adds a consumer strategy that focuses on the quality, nutrition and use of California raisins. The activities would be mostly in-store promotions and Public Relations. Their program in the U.K. includes funds for branded activities, which includes print advertising, features in store magazines, and trade and consumer advertising. Additionally, RAC also requested Emerging Market funds for China and Estonia to assist in capitalizing our perceived opportunities in the confectionary and baking industries. These proposals are under consideration.
Key Raisin Producing Countries in the Southern Hemisphere
Australia
In 2001/02, the raisin crop produced its lowest yields in history due to poor seasonal conditions. Low raisin prices and diversion of crops to wine production are also contributing to the decreased production of 13,676 tons. Favorable weather conditions and reduction in wine grape prices are expected to return raisin production to its normal levels in 2002/03; the raisin crop is forecast at 31,000 tons.
Exports are expected to rebound to 5,200 tons as a result of the larger production in 2002/03. Germany, the United Kingdom and Canada remain as leading export markets for Australia’s raisins.
Australia is expected to import 15,000 tons of raisins from the world in 2002/03. Turkey remains the dominant raisin supplier to Australia, followed by Iran and Greece.
Chile
In 2001, the raisin crop fell 8 percent as the availability of discarded table grapes decreased. Raisin production for 2002 is anticipated to be at 42,000 tons, similar to the previous year, as weather conditions remain relatively stable. Raisin production in Chile is based on lower quality table grapes and those rejected from the export process. It is expected that in the next few years, competition from the wine industry for discarded table grapes will disappear as vineyards recently planted with wine varietals continue coming into production. Such a development will significantly increase the annual availability of discarded table grapes for either juice concentrate or raisin production. Over half of Chile's raisin production consists of large‑sized grapes, which have the smallest demand and lowest world prices.
Chilean raisins are primarily exported to the Latin America region including Mexico, Brazil, Colombia, Peru and Venezuela. The Netherlands, the U.K., and France are its leading European export markets. More than 90 percent of Chile’s raisin production is exported.
No imports entered Chile in the past three years. A flat 8-percent import tariff was charged in 2001. This rate is expected to fall to 7 percent in 2002, and stay at 6 percent starting in 2003. In addition, an 18‑percent value‑added tax is charged on all consumer items, both domestic and imported.
South Africa
The raisin crop is forecast to increase by 5 percent in 2002/03 to 39,000 tons. Lower prices for juice and wine are expected to divert grapes to raisin production and are likely to contribute to the larger crop. Favorable weather conditions are expected to increase the 2001/02 crop by 8 percent to 37,000 tons.
The devaluation of the rand is anticipated to contribute to a 4-percent increase in South African exports in 2001/02, with foreign shipments going to European markets including Germany, the Netherlands, the U.K., Portugal and France. Canada and Japan are also leading export markets. Raisin imports by South Africa are minimal.
(The FAS Attaché Report search engine contains reports on the Dried Fruit industries for 6 countries, including Australia, Chile, and South Africa. For information on production and trade, contact Rey Santella at 202-720-0897. For information on marketing contact Kristin Kezar at 202-690-0556.)
|
RAISINS:
PRODUCTION, SUPPLY, AND DISTRIBUTION |
||||||
|
Marketing
Year (August/July) 1998/99 - 2002/03 |
||||||
|
(Tons) |
||||||
|
Country/ Marketing Year
1/ |
Beginning
Stocks |
Production |
Imports
3/ |
Exports |
Domestic
Consumption 2/ |
Ending
Stocks |
|
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Greece |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1998/99
|
2,930 |
28,000 |
4,000 |
24,000 |
4,500 |
6,430 |
|
1999/2000
|
6,430 |
22,500 |
1,000 |
23,000 |
4,500 |
2,430 |
|
2000/01
|
2,430 |
28,000 |
1,000 |
21,500 |
4,000 |
5,930 |
|
2001/02 |
5,930 |
28,500 |
500 |
24,000 |
7,430 |
3,500 |
|
2002/03
F |
3,500 |
29,000 |
500 |
24,000 |
6,700 |
2,300 |
|
Turkey |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1998/99
|
28,593 |
250,000 |
3,131 |
188,247 |
30,000 |
63,477 |
|
1999/2000
|
63,477 |
195,000 |
1,550 |
192,433 |
30,000 |
37,594 |
|
2000/01
|
37,594 |
285,000 |
3,101 |
226,232 |
30,000 |
69,463 |
|
2001/02 |
69,463 |
200,000 |
1,000 |
190,000 |
41,000 |
39,463 |
|
2002/03
F |
39,463 |
240,000 |
1,000 |
210,000 |
40,000 |
30,463 |
|
Mexico |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1998/99
|
0 |
20,000 |
4,474 |
13,142 |
11,332 |
0 |
|
1999/2000
|
0 |
12,000 |
8,278 |
7,783 |
12,495 |
0 |
|
2000/01
|
0 |
13,000 |
11,186 |
4,728 |
19,458 |
0 |
|
2001/02 |
0 |
13,500 |
11,200 |
6,000 |
18,700 |
0 |
|
2002/03
F |
0 |
13,200 |
11,400 |
6,000 |
18,600 |
0 |
|
United States |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1998/99
|
146,273 |
227,703 |
24,579 |
110,591 |
196,632 |
91,332 |
|
1999/2000
|
91,332 |
310,529 |
17,370 |
79,995 |
204,252 |
134,984 |
|
2000/01
|
134,984 |
439,531 |
11,899 |
109,055 |
200,941 |
276,418 |
|
2001/02 |
276,418 |
353,802 |
20,000 |
110,000 |
203,000 |
337,220 |
|
2002/03
F |
337,220 |
368,000 |
18,423 |
111,000 |
202,731 |
409,912 |
|
Total Northern
Hemisphere |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1998/99
|
177,796 |
525,703 |
36,184 |
335,980 |
242,464 |
161,239 |
|
1999/2000
|
161,239 |
540,029 |
28,198 |
303,211 |
251,247 |
175,008 |
|
2000/01
|
175,008 |
765,531 |
27,186 |
361,515 |
254,399 |
351,811 |
|
2001/02 |
351,811 |
595,802 |
32,700 |
330,000 |
270,130 |
380,183 |
|
2002/03
F |
380,183 |
650,200 |
31,323 |
351,000 |
268,031 |
442,675 |
|
Australia |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1998/99
|
4,000 |
38,500 |
11,481 |
14,485 |
32,196 |
7,300 |
|
1999/2000
|
7,300 |
21,119 |
16,885 |
5,599 |
35,105 |
4,600 |
|
2000/01
|
4,600 |
26,667 |
17,353 |
6,401 |
35,300 |
6,919 |
|
2001/02 |
6,919 |
13,676 |
17,400 |
4,416 |
32,579 |
1,000 |
|
2002/03
F |
1,000 |
31,000 |
15,000 |
5,200 |
35,000 |
6,800 |
|
Chile |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1998/99
|
3,041 |
27,820 |
0 |
27,017 |
3,500 |
344 |
|
1999/2000
|
344 |
36,000 |
0 |
32,563 |
3,500 |
281 |
|
2000/01
|
281 |
45,000 |
0 |
41,576 |
3,500 |
205 |
|
2001/02 |
205 |
41,500 |
0 |
38,000 |
3,500 |
205 |
|
2002/03
F |
205 |
42,000 |
0 |
38,400 |
3,500 |
305 |
|
South Africa;
Republic of |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1998/99
|
5,744 |
40,358 |
0 |
28,214 |
12,600 |
5,288 |
|
1999/2000
|
5,288 |
38,142 |
1 |
20,926 |
13,000 |
9,505 |
|
2000/01
|
9,505 |
34,000 |
1 |
25,900 |
12,000 |
5,606 |
|
2001/02 |
5,606 |
37,000 |
1 |
27,000 |
10,500 |
5,107 |
|
2002/03
F |
5,107 |
39,000 |
1 |
28,800 |
11,200 |
4,108 |
|
Total Southern
Hemisphere |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1998/99
|
12,785 |
106,678 |
11,481 |
69,716 |
48,296 |
12,932 |
|
1999/2000
|
12,932 |
95,261 |
16,886 |
59,088 |
51,605 |
14,386 |
|
2000/01
|
14,386 |
105,667 |
17,354 |
73,877 |
50,800 |
12,730 |
|
2001/02 |
12,730 |
92,176 |
17,401 |
69,416 |
46,579 |
6,312 |
|
2002/03
F |
6,312 |
112,000 |
15,001 |
72,400 |
49,700 |
11,213 |
|
Grand Total |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1998/99
|
190,581 |
632,381 |
47,665 |
405,696 |
290,760 |
174,171 |
|
1999/2000 |
174,171 |
635,290 |
45,084 |
362,299 |
302,852 |
189,394 |
|
2000/01
|
189,394 |
871,198 |
44,540 |
435,392 |
305,199 |
364,541 |
|
2001/02 |
364,541 |
687,978 |
50,101 |
399,416 |
316,709 |
386,495 |
|
2002/03
F |
386,495 |
762,200 |
46,324 |
423,400 |
317,731 |
453,888 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Source:
U.S. Foreign Agricultural Attaché
Reports, USDA, National Agricultural
Statistics Service. |
|
|||||
|
1/ Northern Hemisphere marketing years begin August 1, and
September 1 in Turkey. Marketing
years for Southern |
||||||
|
Hemisphere raisins,
(which are harvested early in the second of the split years shown) begin
Jan. 1, and March 1 in Australia |
||||||
|
2/ Domestic consumption
figures include raisins used for feed and distillation purposes.
3/ Imports include currants. U.S. |
||||||
|
production data have
been converted to a packed weight basis in order to align them with the
other supply and distribution statistics. |
||||||
|
F = Forecast |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
U.S.
EXPORTS OF RAISINS |
||||||
|
Marketing
Year (August/July) 1998/99 - 2000/01 |
||||||
|
and
2000/01-2001/02 August/March Comparisons |
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Destination |
1998/99 |
1999/00 |
2000/1 |
August/March
2000/01 |
August/March 2001/02
|
Percent
Changed |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
North America |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Canada |
12,121
|
10,722
|
11,793
|
8,257 |
8,121 |
-1.65% |
|
Mexico |
896
|
1,173
|
630
|
579 |
270 |
-53.35% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Subtotal |
13,017
|
11,895
|
12,422
|
8,836 |
8,391 |
-5.04% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
European Union |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sweden |
4,368
|
3,527
|
4,805
|
3,493 |
3,236 |
-7.35% |
|
Finland |
2,270
|
1,725
|
1,614
|
1,318 |
1,371 |
4.08% |
|
Denmark |
5,148
|
3,177
|
3,852
|
2,750 |
2,052 |
-25.36% |
|
United Kingdom |
22,195
|
11,516
|
24,101
|
15,901 |
16,457 |
3.50% |
|
Netherlands |
3,471
|
2,812
|
5,551
|
4,038 |
2,853 |
-29.34% |
|
France |
669
|
625
|
275
|
161 |
276 |
71.18% |
|
Germany |
5,092
|
3,280
|
7,095
|
4,418 |
4,260 |
-3.60% |
|
Spain |
587
|
499
|
505
|
294 |
572 |
94.59% |
|
Belgium-Lux. |
926
|
691
|
889
|
594 |
631 |
6.32% |
|
Italy |
221
|
117
|
320
|
278 |
57 |
-79.60% |
|
Ireland |
110
|
75
|
72
|
47 |
46 |
-1.71% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Subtotal |
45,057
|
28,042
|
49,079
|
33,291 |
31,811 |
-4.45% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Asia |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Singapore |
2,776
|
2,162
|
2,025
|
1,470 |
1,285 |
-12.57% |
|
Malaysia |
686
|
577
|
907
|
476 |
1,209 |
153.89% |
|
Korea, Republic of |
1,654
|
1,122
|
2,304
|
1,723 |
1,999 |
15.97% |
|
Hong Kong |
1,763
|
1,368
|
2,436
|
1,956 |
2,022 |
3.41% |
|
Taiwan |
3,887
|
2,639
|
3,835
|
2,772 |
2,786 |
0.50% |
|
Japan |
30,014
|
22,760
|
22,840
|
15,059 |
15,132 |
0.48% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Subtotal |
40,779
|
30,627
|
34,347
|
23,456 |
24,433 |
4.16% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Other Countries |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
New Zealand |
1,312
|
1,003
|
1,319
|
929 |
724 |
-22.02% |
|
Norway |
2,309
|
2,045
|
2,384
|
1,730 |
1,617 |
-6.55% |
|
All Others |
8,117
|
6,383
|
9,504
|
6,632 |
8,950 |
34.95% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Grand Total |
110,591
|
79,995
|
109,055
|
74,874 |
75,927 |
1.41% |
|
|
U.S.
IMPORTS OF RAISINS |
|
||||
|
|
Marketing
Year (August/July) 1998/99 - 2000/01 |
|
||||
|
|
and
2000/01-2001/02 August/March Comparisons |
|
||||
|
|
|
|
(Tons
) |
|
|
|
|
Origin |
1998/99 |
1999/2000 |
2000/01 |
August/March
2000/01 |
August/March
2001/02 |
Percent
Changed |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CHILE |
4,362
|
5,747
|
4,680
|
2,371 |
2,412 |
2% |
|
MEXICO |
11,070
|
6,305
|
3,849
|
3,067 |
3,561 |
16% |
|
SOUTH AFRICA, REPUBL |
963
|
1,286
|
1,385
|
853 |
669 |
-22% |
|
ARGENTINA |
1,799
|
2,488
|
1,380
|
707 |
1,846 |
161% |
|
IRAN |
0
|
9
|
221
|
146 |
117 |
-20% |
|
PAKISTAN |
349
|
608
|
192
|
185 |
39 |
-79% |
|
TURKEY |
1,412
|
368
|
52
|
32 |
46 |
41% |
|
CHINA, PEOPLES REPUB |
15
|
0
|
45
|
42 |
1 |
-97% |
|
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES |
0
|
16
|
42
|
42 |
0 |
-100% |
|
AFGHANISTAN |
4,287
|
419
|
17
|
17 |
0 |
-100% |
|
UZBEKISTAN, REPUBLIC |
137
|
0
|
17
|
0 |
0 |
0% |
|
MACAU |
0
|
0
|
15
|
0 |
0 |
0% |
|
LEBANON |
0
|
1
|
5
|
5 |
5 |
9% |
|
AUSTRALIA |
2
|
0
|
0
|
0 |
0 |
0% |
|
CANADA |
0
|
31
|
0
|
0 |
7 |
0% |
|
GERMANY |
20
|
0
|
0
|
0 |
0 |
0% |
|
REST OF WORLD |
164
|
92
|
0
|
0 |
0 |
0% |
|
Grand Total |
24,759
|
17,370
|
11,899
|
7,466 |
8,702 |
17% |
|
|