|Horticultural & Tropical Products Division||Return to the H&TP Home Page|
Orange Juice Situation
|Orange juice production in the Northern Hemisphere in 2001/02 is estimated at 1.1 million tons, 65 degrees Brix, up nearly 3 percent from 2000/01. U.S. production of orange juice during 2001/02 is forecast at 1.0 million tons, up from 970,211 tons the previous year. U.S. exports during 2001/02 are forecast at 97,450 tons, up nearly 12 percent year to year.|
U.S. production of orange juice in 2001/02 is forecast at 1.0 million tons, up over 3 percent from the 2000/01 level. According to the January 11, 2002, NASS Crop Production report, Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield projection is 1.58 gallons per box of 42.0 degrees Brix. This is an increase from the December 2001 projection of 1.55 gallons per box. The early and midseason yield is projected at 1.52 gallons per box. The Valencia FCOJ yield is forecast at 1.68 gallons per box.
U.S. exports of orange juice are forecast at 97,450 tons, up nearly 12 percent from the level exported in 2000/01. U.S. exports during 2000/01 were 87,209 tons down 16 percent from the previous year. U.S. imports of orange juice are estimated at 192,050 tons, an increase of nearly 5 percent from the previous year. U.S. consumption of orange juice during 2001/02 is forecast at 1.12 million tons, up 6 percent from the previous years level. However, consumption at this level is still depressed from the 1999/2000 level. Ending stocks of orange juice are forecast at 441,000 tons, down 5 percent from the previous year.
In 2001/02 Italys orange juice output is forecast to increase by 13 percent due to a large fruit supply. Citrus fruits delivered to processors consist mainly of fruit that is in excess, or not of high enough quality for the fresh market. However, non-concentrated orange juice production is expanding in Italy, due to growing consumer demand, especially for non-concentrated fresh orange juice, which is considered to be a healthier, and higher quality product. The demand for this type of juice, which is produced almost exclusively with domestically-produced oranges, may lead to more fruit produced specifically for the juice sector.
Italys exports of orange juice are forecast at 28,000 tons in 2001/02, down 2,000 tons from the previous year. As a result of the reform of the EU citrus regime, the Italian citrus processing sector has become more competitive. Deficiencies in domestic supply when local citrus production is poor are compensated for by large stocks and orange juice imports from Brazil entering the EU through Northern European ports.
Deliveries of fresh oranges to processors during 2001/02 are forecast at 670,000 tons, producing a forecast 43,000 tons of orange juice. In Spain, oranges are not grown specifically for juice production; rather they are primarily those that have been rejected for fresh consumption. Most orange juice plants are located in the orange-producing areas in the Valencia region and in Andalucia. Faced with strong competition from other beverages, orange juice remains the favorite juice and consumption is expected to grow in 2001/02. Orange juice represents about 35 percent of the local fruit juice market. Total annual per capita consumption of orange juice is estimated at about 6 liters.
Orange juice exports during 2001/02 are forecast to be lower than during the previous season. Orange juice imports during the same time frame are forecast at 35,000 tons. About 50 percent of the total imported is concentrated orange juice, and the remaining is single strength, while a large percentage of orange juice exported, mainly to other EU countries, is single strength.
Japans imports of orange juice in 2001/02 are forecast at 110,000 tons, down 5 percent from the previous year. Brazil is, by far, the largest supplier of orange juice to Japan, accounting for 82 percent of the 116,245 tons imported during October-September 2000/01. The duties on imported orange juice range from 21.3 to 25.5 percent.
FCOJ production for 2001/02 is forecast at 37,000 tons, 12 percent higher than 2000/01 production due to the expected higher international prices. Juice production depends heavily on the international price of FCOJ. The Mexican industry is expecting prices to rise to at least $0.90 per pound for calendar year (CY) 2002. The general uncertainty of the FCOJ industry has not changed from previous years. Unless FCOJ export prices are good, enabling processors to increase the price paid to fruit producers, it is unlikely that juice concentrate production will increase dramatically. Due to financial problems of the processing industry, there has been a concentration of ownership.
In general, the industry does not expect domestic consumption to increase dramatically because of the availability of fresh oranges in the domestic market. The majority of Mexicos consumers demand fresh-squeezed juice instead of processed orange juice. Consumption for 2001/02 is expected to remain constant, due to a decrease in consumption from the hotel and restaurant industry being offset by a steady availability of fresh, domestic oranges. Most of the orange juice produced in Mexico goes to the export market.
Exports of FCOJ for 2001/02 are forecast to increase to approximately 33,500 tons. Exports are expected to rise because of higher demand and international prices. The main market for Mexicos orange juice is the United States, with Japan and European countries also becoming important markets. Any export growth is forecast to be limited to the needs of Floridas industry to mix their juice with a higher sugar-ratio and more colored Mexican juice.
(This article was prepared or estimated on the basis of official statistics of foreign governments, other foreign source material, and, in particular, reports of Agricultural Attachés and Foreign Service Officers, results of office research, and related information. The FAS Attaché Report search engine contains reports on the Orange Juice industries for approximately 10 countries, including Mexico and Brazil. For information on production and trade, contact Debra A. Pumphrey at 202-720-8899.)