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Raisin Situation and Outlook
|Production in major raisin-producing countries in the Southern Hemisphere is expected return to normal levels in Marketing Year (MY) 2001/02. Collectively, production in Australia, Chile, and South Africa is estimated to increase by 25 percent, from 89,176 tons to 111,000 tons. Exports in the Southern Hemisphere are also expected to increase by 14 percent in 2001/02. All major raisin-producing countries in the Northern Hemisphere are projected to decrease production in MY 2000/01. Total production from the United States, Greece, Turkey, and Mexico in MY 2001/02 is estimated to decrease by 12 percent. In the United States, raisin production is expected to decrease by 21 percent to reach 325,988 tons. Overall, raisin production for selected countries is projected to decrease by 19 percent.|
In MY 2001 (March 2002/February 2003) raisin production numbers are forecast to rebound to 29,000 tons. Lower prices for grapes used for wine production in the past year have renewed interest in dried fruit production and are expected to encourage increased raisin production over the medium term. Due to a dramatic fall in production and unfavorable weather conditions, the MY 2000 (March 2001/February 2002) raisin crop is estimated to drop by more than 49 percent to 13,676 tons. In addition to unusually overcast and cooler conditions, the diversion of grapes away from raisin production in past years to wine manufacturing has cut the size of the raisin crop in half. Recent prices for sultanas are estimated at 1,600 Australian dollars per ton.
Raisin exports are estimated to increase by 18 percent in MY 2001 as a result of higher crop estimates. Due to the dramatic fall in production, Australian exports of sultanas are expected to decline in MY 2000 from 6,401 tons to 4,416 tons. During this downswing, maintaining major export markets such as Germany, New Zealand, Japan, Canada and the U.K. is expected to remain a priority for Australian exporters. Imports for MY 2001 are estimated to fall to 15,000 tons.
Raisin production for MY 2001 (January 2002 - December 2002) is forecast at 42,000 tons, a slight increase from the previous year. Decreased demand from the wine industry and larger supplies of table grapes from new vineyards is expected to increase 2000/2001 raisin production from 34,000 tons to 41,500 tons, a 22-percent increase from earlier estimates. Exports for MY 2001 are forecast at 38,400 tons. Key export markets for Chilean raisins are Mexico, the United States, Colombia, and Brazil. Export estimates for 2000/01 were revised up from the previous forecast to 38,400 tons due to a larger raisin crop. Prices for exported raisins are much higher than prices in the domestic market, leaving little incentive to produce for the local market. Chile did not import any raisins in 2000/01.
Raisin production is expected to increase by 18 percent to 40,000 metric tons in MY 2001 (January 2002 - December 2002). In MY 2000, production is anticipated to have decreased by 11 percent from the previous year due to unfavorable weather conditions and diseases.
Exports during MY 2001 are forecast to increase by 36 percent to 28, 500 metric tons. Brazil and the European Union are the largest export markets for South African raisins. Exporters are also looking to increase their markets in Japan and the United States.
The MY 2001 raisin crop (September 2001 - August 2002) is estimated at 27,000 tons, a decrease of 4 percent from the previous year. Approximately 80 percent of the crop is of excellent quality, graded at No. 2 and No. 4. The MY 2000 raisin crop has been revised from 29,000 tons to 28,000 tons. Large supplies of Turkish raisins have resulted in carry overs of approximately 9,000 tons from 2000 and 2001 crops. Four thousand of the 9,000 tons are expected to be consumed domestically.
Total export volume for 2001/02 is forecast at 23,000 tons. Raisin exports for 2000/01 are expected to fall to 21,500 tons, a 7-percent decrease from the previous year, due in large part to cheaper raisins on the international market from Turkey. Presently, export prices (FOB basis) for Greek sultanas fluctuate between 275-285 Drs/Kg ($0.75 - $0.78 kg) for grade No 2 and 265-275 Drs/Kg ($0.72 - $0.75/kg) for grade No 4. Prices for Turkish sultanas range between 185-195 Drs/kg ($0.51 - $0.53/kg). Raisin imports are minimal with 500 tons forecast for 2001/02.
The revised raisin production forecast for MY 2001 (September 2001 - August 2002) is 190,000 tons, down 24 percent from earlier this year. Dry weather and diseases in some regions have reduced crop yields. The quality of the 2001/02 crop is not as good as the previous year, with 25 percent of the crop consisting of standard #10, 50 percent of standard #9 and the remaining 25 percent of #8 and lower. Raisin production in 2000/01 is estimated at a record 285,000 tons, a 46-percent increase from the previous year.
The raisin export forecast for 2001/02 is revised from 210,000 to 200,000 tons due to smaller supplies. Raisin export prices have been decreasing in recent years. Currently export prices for standard #9 bulk are at $750/MT and $800/MT for standard #10 bulk. In 2000/01, total raisin exports are estimated to be 232,317 tons, a 21-percent increase. Imports are minimal.
According to the U.S. raisin industry, raisin production in MY 2001 (August 2001 - July 2002) is projected to reach 325,988 tons, down 21 percent from the record level of the previous year.
Exports are projected to increase by 10 percent in MY 2001. In MY 2000, raisin exports increased 36 percent from the previous year from 80,251 tons to 109,421 tons. The European Union, Japan and Canada remain top export markets. Imports from Chile and Mexico are expected to continue to increase in MY 2001.
In 2001/02, the Raisin Administrative Committee (RAC) received a total of $1.9 million to market California raisins under the Market Access Program (MAP). MAP funds are expected to be used to maintain raisin markets in Japan, the United Kingdom and Scandinavia. In addition, the RAC received $136,500 under the Emerging Markets Program to increase promotional activities in India, Poland, Czech Republic and Hungary.
Singapore is one of the most affluent nations in Asia with a present GDP-per capita of about $22,000. More than 76 percent of its population is in the middle to upper income groups. Singapores market for dried fruit is supplied solely by imports (approximately $14 million), of which raisins accounted for 51 percent of the total import value. The United States is the largest supplier of dried fruits to Singapore, accounting for 66 percent of the raisin market. Iran and South Africa are also major exporters. In 1999, the United States exported more than 4,000 tons of raisins to Singapore, of which 3,094 were re-exported.
The market for dried fruits in Singapore is expected to grow slowly; however, opportunities exist in the food service and retail sectors.
In 2000, 6,509 tons of dried fruits were imported into Taiwan, valued at $10 million. Raisins accounted for 4,425 tons of the total imported dried fruits, of which 90 percent were imported from the United States.
Raisins are used both as snacks for consumers and ingredients for bakery stores. It is estimated that 60 percent of the imported raisins are consumed as snack products.
There are no quotas in effect for dried fruit imports. The current duty rate for bulk and boxed raisins is NT $3/kg. The average wholesale price for raisins in 2000 is NT $100/kg.
(The FAS Attache Report search engine contains reports on the Dried Fruit industries for 6 countries, including Australia, Chile and South Africa. For information on production and trade, contact Rey Santella at 202-720-0897. For information on marketing contact Kristin Kezar at 202-690-0556. Also, visit the dried fruit webpage at: http://www.fas.usda.gov/htp/horticulture/driedfrt.html)