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Northern Hemisphere Pear Situation and Outlook
| Pear production in selected Northern Hemisphere countries in 2001/02 is forecast at 12.7 million tons, practically unchanged from the 2000/01 output. While production is forecast larger in China, smaller crops are expected in the United States and in Italy, which is the major pear producing country in the European Union (EU). In China, pear production in 2001/02 is forecast to increase 5 percent to a record 8.8 million tons, the result of expanded acreage in the southern part of the country. On the other hand, pear output in Italy is expected to decline 6 percent in 2001/02 to 824,000 tons. The overall U.S. pear crop in 2001/02 is forecast to fall for the second consecutive season to 830,000 tons, 5 percent below the 2000/01 output and the lowest level since 1996/97. Northern Hemisphere countries’ pear exports in 2001/02 are forecast at about 920,000 tons, down 3 percent from the previous season’s shipments. Lower shipments anticipated from major exporting countries, such as the United States, the Netherlands, and Italy, will likely more than offset increased export prospects in main exporters, including China and Spain. U.S. pear exports in 2001/02 are forecast at 150,000 tons, 11 percent below the record shipments posted in the 2000/01 season. Pear shipments from the United States this season would likely be hampered by a smaller pear crop and anticipated higher prices, combined with the gloomy economic situation expected in important customer markets. Nevertheless, U.S. pear exports in 2001/02 will continue to benefit from the industry’s market promotion efforts. |
Production
Northern Hemisphere pear production to increase slightly in 2001/02
Pear production in selected Northern Hemisphere countries in 2001/02 is forecast at 12.7 million metric tons, a slightly upward changed from the 2000/01 output. While production is forecast to increase in China, the world’s major producer, smaller crops are anticipated in the United States and Italy.
China’s pear production is forecast to increase 5 percent in 2001/02 to a record 8.8 million tons. Expanded acreage in the southern region of the country and overall favorable weather is expected to contribute to the upward trend in 2001/02. Hebei is the leading pear-producing province, accounting for a third of the total Chinese pear crop. Ya pears are the most popular variety grown, with a 30 percent production share.
Italy’s pear production, the largest in the EU, is expected to decline 6 percent in 2001/02 to 824,000 tons. Unfavorable weather conditions, including hailstorms, have adversely affected production and fruit quality of the 2001/02 Italian pear crop. The region of Emilia-Romagna in Northern Italy continues to account for the bulk of total Italian pear production. Abate and Williams are the two major pear varieties grown in Italy.
U.S. pear production in 2001/02 is forecast to decrease 5 percent to 830,000 tons. The downturn mainly reflects lower production of Barlett pears for the second consecutive season. Production of U.S. Barletts in 2001/02 is forecast at nearly 430,000 tons, down 9 percent from the 470,000 tons produced in 2000/01. The ongoing economic difficulties facing the processing industry in northern California will likely continue to divert more Barlett pears to the fresh domestic and export markets in 2001/02. Barlett pears are the main variety produced in the United States, normally accounting for more than half of the pear crop. California accounts for half the U.S. Barlett pear crop.
Trade
Northern Hemisphere pear exports forecast to decrease in 2001/02
Northern Hemisphere pear exports in 2001/02 are forecast at about 920,550 tons, down 3 percent from the previous season’s shipments. Decreased exports are anticipated from the United States, the Netherlands, and Italy. On the other hand, pear shipments from China and Spain are forecast to increase 19 percent and 41 percent, respectively. These countries in 2001/02 will likely benefit from expected larger crops and the related increase in exportable supplies.
China’s pear exports are forecast to increase to more than 167,000 tons in 2001/02, mainly the result of a larger crop. Pear shipments from China have increased considerably in recent years and are becoming more important to Chinese pear growers. For example, China exported about 141,000 tons of pears in 2000/01, compared to practically nothing 10 years ago. Fruit quality in China continues to improve, contributing to the expansion of China’s exports to Southeast Asian countries and Russia.
Dutch pear exports in 2001/02 are forecast at 155,000 tons, 5 percent below shipments in 2000/01. A much smaller pear crop will likely limit Dutch pear shipments in 2001/02. The United Kingdom is by far the most important destination for Dutch pears, followed by Russia, Sweden, France, and Norway. The Netherlands is also a transhipment venue for fruit trade in the EU. Almost all Chilean pears destined for the EU market are traded via the Netherlands. Approximately 80 percent of Dutch pear exports consist of the variety "Conference."
Italy’s pear exports are forecast to decrease slightly to 130,000 tons in 2001/02. Germany is Italy’s major pear market, accounting for about half of Italy’s shipments.
U.S. pear shipments in 2001/02 are forecast at 150,000 tons, down 11 percent from the record 168,000 tons shipped in 2000/01. Pear shipments from the United States this season will likely be hampered by a smaller pear crop and anticipated higher prices combined, with the gloomy economic situation expected in many important customer markets. Nevertheless, U.S. pear exports in 2001/02 will continue to benefit from the industry’s market promotion efforts and from funds assigned under the Market Access Program (MAP), which in fiscal year 2002 are estimated at $1.2 million. Exports have become vital for the success of the U.S. pear industry. Today, the percentage of U.S. pear production going into export has increased dramatically, generating a larger share of the income of pear farmers. Canada and Mexico together account for more than three-quarters of total U.S. pear shipments.
U.S. pear exports in 2000/01 set record volume and value
U.S. pear exports in 2000/01 totaled nearly 168,000 tons, valued at $93 million, both records. Larger supplies of fresh-marketed pears and continued strong demand from important customers, such as Mexico, boosted U.S. pear exports in 2000/01. The diversion of processing pears into the fresh market contributed to the expansion on fresh-marketed supplies in 2000/01. The success in U.S. pear shipments reflects the completion of trade agreements, such as NAFTA, increased promotion activities under MAP, and more foreign demand for healthy foods, including pears. Mexico has emerged as the top destination for U.S. pear sales. Other key markets include Canada, Brazil, Venezuela, and Taiwan. In 2000/01, 20 percent of the total U.S. pear crop was exported compared to 5 percent in 1987/88. Moreover, the share of U.S. exports as a percentage of pears produced for fresh use only reached more than 30 percent in 2000/01. Continued supplies of good quality fruit, strong demand from leading customers, and market promotion efforts should continue to support strong U.S. pear sales in foreign markets.
Southern Hemisphere
The forecast for the Southern Hemisphere countries for 2001/02 season (harvest in 2002) will be available in the March 2002 issue of World Horticultural Trade & U.S. Export Opportunities.
(The FAS Attache Report search engine contains reports on the Deciduous Fruit industries for more than 20 countries, including China, Italy, and France. For further information on production and trade, contact Samuel Rosa at 202-720-6086. For information on marketing, contact Ted Goldamer at 202-720-8498. Also, visit the pear web page at: http://www.fas.usda.gov/htp/horticulture/pear.html )
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