Significant production decreases in most of the world’s avocado-producing countries will reduce world avocado supplies to 1.2 million metric tons in 2000/01, down 14 percent from last year. Larger output in the United States, the world’s second-largest producer, and Chile is not sizable enough to offset a 26-percent production decrease in Mexico, the world’s largest producer. However, world avocado exports in 2000/01 are forecast to increase slightly to 220,000 tons, due to the export orientation of producers in Chile, Israel, Spain, and South Africa. While U.S. exports remain small, they are forecast to increase slightly to 5,000 tons in 2000/01, due to larger supplies and the recent opening of the Chilean market to U.S. avocados.

Production for 2000/01 is forecast at 650,000 tons, down 26 percent from the revised 1999/2000 estimate, due primarily to the crop's cyclical nature and unfavorable weather conditions, which reduced yields. Output was also lower than expected due to producers delaying harvest in an effort to avoid market saturation and declining Mexican avocado prices.

In January 1997, USDA's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) approved the importation of Mexican Hass avocados from Michoacán into 19 northeastern U.S. states from November through February, provided growers meet pest-control requirements. To date, no pests of concern have been found in the groves approved under the program. Given the success of the program and lack of pest interceptions, the Government of Mexico has expressed strong interest in expanding its market access to include additional U.S. states and a longer time period.

Although Mexico is by far the world's largest avocado producer, only 5 percent of production is exported. Due to increased access to the U.S. market, Mexican avocado producers have gradually been increasing shipments. Exports to the United States in 1999/2000 totaled 13,444 tons, up 28 percent from 1998/99, and are forecast at 15,000 tons in 2000/01, a 12 percent increase. Total Mexican avocado exports in 1999/2000 reached 22,415 tons, a decrease of 42 percent from the 1998/99 season, attributable to increased domestic demand. Despite strong domestic demand, the export market continues to be profitable and 2000/01 exports are forecast to reach 35,000 tons. Central America continues to be Mexico's largest export market, followed by the United States. Imports of fresh avocados into Mexico are negligible, reflecting its status as the world's largest producer and consumer. U.S. avocados are unable to enter the Mexican market due to phytosanitary restrictions.

Production for 2000/01 is forecast at 210,000 tons, up 22 percent from the 1999/2000 season, due to good weather and increased yields. The official 2000/01 estimate of U.S. avocado production will not be available from USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) until July 2000.

U.S. exports of avocados for 1999/2000 totaled 3,436 tons, 43 percent below the previous year's level, due to strong U.S. demand. Exports are forecast to increase slightly to 5,000 tons in 2000/01, due to larger supplies and the opening of the Chilean market. U.S. fresh avocado imports increased significantly in 1999/2000 to 66,237 tons, up 19 percent, reflecting increased shipments from Latin America. Chile accounted for 58 percent of total U.S. imports, followed by Mexico with 20 percent, and the Dominican Republic with 15 percent. Total U.S. imports are likely to increase in 2000/01, due to strong consumer demand, good U.S. prices, and the strong U.S. dollar. U.S. processed avocado imports are overwhelmingly of Mexican origin. Imports of processed product increased 36 percent in 1999/2000 and are likely to increase slightly in 2000/01 due to expected increases in Mexican shipments.

Production in 2000/01 is forecast at 81,000 tons, down 22 percent, due to the alternate bearing nature of the fruit and unfavorable weather conditions. Continued growth in planted area suggests that South African avocado production will increase substantially in the next few years. Exports for 2000/01 are forecast at 46,000 tons, down 15 percent from last season, due to lower output. Approximately 50 percent of the South African crop is exported, primarily to France, Belgium and the United Kingdom.

Production for 2000/01 is forecast at 100,000 tons, up 11 percent from the revised estimate for 1999/2000, due to new orchards reaching production and excellent weather. Future increased output is expected as planted area has been increasing by approximately 1,000 hectares per year and new plantings have yet to reach full production. Exports are expected to increase in 2000/01 to 52,000 tons, 14 percent above last year's revised shipments, due to larger supplies. Chile's exporters are still overwhelmingly dependent on the U.S. market, with over 95 percent of total 2000 exports shipped to the United States. As a result of long and intensive USDA efforts to open the Chilean market to U.S. avocados, the Government of Chile granted permission for California avocados to enter Chile, effective December 1, 2000.

Avocado production in 2000/01 is forecast at 47,000 tons, down 19 percent from last year's revised estimate, due mainly to the crop's cyclical nature. However, area planted for avocado production continues to increase. Over the next five years, area planted is expected to expand another 25 to 35 percent, as steadily increasing demand and good prices encourage more producers to switch to avocado production. Increasing European demand for natural and organic avocados is prompting many Spanish producers to take advantage of existing environmentally-friendly growing practices to convert to organic production. Exports are forecast to decrease to 35,000 tons, down 24 percent from last year, due to the smaller crop. Almost all of Spain's avocados are shipped to Europe, with over 60 percent going to France.

Production for 2000/01 is forecast at 67,000 tons, down 13 percent from last year, due to the crop's cyclical nature. Actual production for 1999/2000 was 77,000 tons, up 67 percent from 1998/99, because of favorable weather conditions. Output is likely to remain constant in the short term, due to replanting of old orchards with hardier rootstocks. In the medium term, output is forecasted to reach 90,000 tons, of which 65 percent will be for export. Increasing problems with access to water resources and competition from Spain in the European market will force growers to improve efficiency and increase yields. Exports are forecast at 47,000 tons, up only slightly from last year. Almost all Israeli avocados are shipped to Europe, with over 50 percent going to France. U.S. avocados are unable to enter the Israeli market due to phytosanitary restrictions.

(The FAS Attache Report search engine contains reports on the avocado industry for 6 countries, including Mexico, South Africa, Chile, and Spain. For information on production and trade, contact Lisa Anderson at 202 720-5028. For information on marketing contact Steve Shnitzler at 202-720-8495).



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