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TREE NUT SITUATION UPDATES
This report updates the tree nut situation for selected countries published in the November 2000 issue of World Horticultural Trade & U.S. Export Opportunities.
Almond production in selected countries in 2000/01 is forecast at 414,751 tons, seven percent above the previous estimate and 16 percent below last years record production. Lower estimates of the 2000/01 United States almond crop accounted for the large decrease from the November estimate. The forecast for the 2000/01 U.S. crop remains high at 322,051 tons, albeit 15 percent below last years record crop, due to the crops cyclical nature. Almond exports from selected countries in 2000/01 are forecast at 266,500 tons, 4 percent below last year and 1 percent below the previous estimate, due to a slightly lower export forecast for Spain. U.S. exports from August 2000 through January 2001 (according to trade sources) totaled 140,250 tons, 4 percent above last years exports during the same period. Sales to date to the European Union, the largest U.S. market, are down 4 percent from last year. U.S. 2000/01 ending almond stocks are forecast to decline substantially to 31,343 tons, due to an increase in domestic consumption. Export prices for U.S. almonds are up 31 percent compared to the same period last year.
Walnut production in selected countries in 2000/01 is estimated at 672,617 tons, 2 percent below last years record production and a little below the November forecast, due to a slightly lower production estimate for the United States. The U.S. walnut crop is estimated at 216,817 tons, 16 percent below the 1999/2000 harvest. Walnut exports from selected countries in 2000/01 are forecast at 176,500, 5 percent lower than the previous estimate due to a slightly lower forecast for Italy. U.S. export from August 2000 through December 2000 (according the U.S. Bureau of Census) totaled 54,231 tons, a 18 percent increase above previous years shipments during the same period. Although sales to the European Union, the largest U.S. market, are up 23 percent for 2000/01 compared to this same time period for 1999/2000, sales to Canada and Mexico are down 8 and 65 percent, respectively.
The 2000/01 hazelnut production estimate for selected countries has been lowered to 652,772 tons, 7 percent below the November forecast. This is due primarily to production decreases for Turkey. U.S. production is forecast at 21,772 tons, 37 percent below last season, due to poor weather conditions and low world prices. Total hazelnut exports from reporting countries in 2000/01 are forecast at 422,500 tons, 9 percent below the November estimate, and 8 percent below 1999/2000 exports. The decrease is due to lower export forecasts for Turkey and Spain. The U.S. export forecast was lowered based on significantly reduced shipments to date compared with the volume for the same time period for prior years. Although sales to the European Union, the largest U.S. market, are up 23 percent for 2000/01 compared to this same period for 1999/2000, sales to China are down 43 percent. The export forecast for Turkey decreased to 370,000 tons, 7 percent below last years volume.