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Situation and Outlook for Macadamias
|Macadamia prices continue to fall as a result of world oversupply. Total world supplies are forecast at 107,635 tons for 2000/01, down 3 percent from last years record number. Forecasted acreage and yield increases in Australia and South Africa, the worlds first and third largest producers, respectively, are expected to increase world supplies to 117,730 tons in 2001/02. The lingering effects of the economic crisis in Asia, the largest regional market for U.S. exports, are disappearing. However, stiff competition from other macadamia producing countries and a strong U.S. currency are weakening demand for U.S. exports. Exports from selected countries are forecast to increase 19 percent to a record 52,014 tons. Australia remains the worlds largest exporter of macadamias, accounting for 47 percent of total world exports. The United States, the worlds second largest producer, is the largest single export market for Australia, South Africa, Guatemala, Brazil, and Costa Rica.|
U.S. Macadamia nut production in 2000/01 is forecast at 22,226 tons, 13 percent below the 1999/2000 crop, due to adverse weather conditions, low prices, and less harvested acreage. Output for 2001/02 is expected to decrease slightly. Exports in 2000/01 are forecast to remain at the same level as in the previous year totaling 3000 tons. The lack of growth in macadamia exports is due mainly to increased competition from exporters and severe weather disruptions. The United States exports mostly prepared or preserved macadamias. With the exception of Korea, sales to the Asian markets are up significantly compared to this same period last year. While sales to date for Korea have remained stagnant, sales to China, Hong Kong, and Singapore have recovered nicely, up 42 percent. However, sales to the other important markets, i.e. the Netherlands, decreased by 25 percent. Japan is still the largest single country market, purchasing over 50 percent of U.S. macadamia exports. With low world prices and less harvested acreage, macadamia exports for 2001/02 are forecast to decrease slightly from 2000/01.
U.S. imports in 2000/01 are forecast to increase 4 percent to 24,100 tons, due to increased production in other countries and decreased production in the United States. Other macadamia producers grow solely for export to the United States, the worlds largest macadamia consumer. Rising U.S. consumer income and spending have been a big factor in soaking up some of the excess world supplies. Additionally, U.S. food processors report difficulties in procuring a steady 12-month supply from Hawaii. The majority of macadamia imports are bulk and industrial product intended for processing.
The Hawaii Agricultural Statistics Service (HASS) reports that in shell grower prices averaged $.61/lb, a 9-percent drop from 1999/2000. Farm prices have not been this low in over 20 years. Ongoing foreign competition has put downward pressure on Hawaii growers.
Australia is the worlds largest macadamia producer. Output in 2000/01 is forecast at 29,100 tons, a drop of 14 percent, due to wetter than average weather conditions. Areas in northern New South Wales that produce macadamia nuts received almost double their annual average of rainfall. This created widespread disease and fungus problems which subsequently reduced yield and quality. Macadamia production for 2001/02 is forecast to increase 22 percent to 35,500 tons, due to a return of normal weather conditions. The Australian macadamia nut industry is highly export oriented, exporting over 50 percent of production. Exports in 2000/01 are forecast at 24,500 tons, an increase of 26 percent from 1999/2000. The United States is still the major single country market for Australian macadamia exports. However, the Asian market, which Japan and Hong Kong dominate, accounted for about 40 percent of total exports in 1999/2000. The Australian Macadamia Society (AMS) estimates that grower prices fell about 9 percent through 2000/01 to around $1.21/kg. However, sources indicate that prices have begun to increase for exported products.
The 2000/01 harvest is expected to increase 12 percent from last year to 10,800 tons, due to good soil moisture content and temperatures. This is expected to continue for the next few years, as more than 50 percent of planted trees will come into bearing age. Output for 2001/02 is forecast to increase another 10 percent to 12,000 tons. If current trends continue, macadamia production could reach 20,000 tons by 2005. Exports in 2000/01 are also expected to rise, up 10 percent from 1999/2000 to 10,200 tons. In 2001/02, exports are forecast at 11,200 tons, an increase of 9 percent from 2000/01. South Africa exports over 80 percent of total production, with the United States and Europe being the biggest importers, accounting for 59 percent and 30 percent of total 1999/2000 exports, respectively.
Macadamia output for 2000/01 is forecast at 4,900 tons, down 18 percent from last year, due mainly to unfavorable weather conditions and premature nut harvesting and withheld stocks by some farmers. Production for 2001/02 is forecast to increase slightly due to improved agronomic practices and maturing trees. Exports are forecast to decrease to 4,094 tons in 2000/01, down 37 percent from last season, due to the large drop in domestic production. Japan is the primary export destination, accounting for 78 percent of total exports.
In 2000/01, macadamia nut production is forecast at 7,200 tons, an increase of 44 percent from last year. Output for 2001/02 is forecast to increase by 23 percent to 9,360 tons. This upward trend is mainly due to maturing trees, full production, and good agricultural practices. Guatemala exports nearly all of its macadamia production, with the United States and the European Union receiving 50 percent and 15 percent of 1999/2000 shipments, respectively. The average macadamia export FOB price during 1999/2000 was around $2.85/lb, an increase from the average price from last year of $2.20/lb.
In 2000/01, Brazils output of macadamias is expected to rise 9 percent to 2,200 tons, as a result of more trees coming into production. This trend is not expected to continue, with production expected to fall 5 percent to 2,100 tons in 2001/02. Exports are forecast to increase 9 percent in 2000/01 reflecting the increased competitiveness of the Brazilian Real as a result of the 1998 currency devaluation. However, exports are expected to drop 9 percent to 1,240 tons in 2001/02. The United States and the European Union are Brazils top 2 export markets, receiving 50 percent and 14 percent of macadamia shipments in 1999/2000, respectively.
Macadamia production for 2000/01 is forecast at 2,000 tons, the same as last year. Output for 2001/02 is expected to decrease by 5 percent. In response to several years of low nut prices, producers are switching to other crops. Consolidation in the industry has left only one large macadamia producer in the country. Exports totaled 1,681 tons in 1999/2000 and are expected to increase 12 percent in 2000/01, comprising over 90 percent of total production. Costa Ricas main export market is the United States, which accounted for 83 percent of total exports in 1999/2000.
(The FAS Attache Report search engine contains reports on the macadamia industry for 6 countries, including Australia, Guatemala, Kenya, and South Africa. For information on production and trade, contact Erik Hansen at 202-720-0875).
U.S. Exports of Macadamia Nuts 1/
Marketing Years: 1995/96 - 1999/00
(metric tons, in-shell equivalent
U.S. Imports of Macadamia Nuts 1/
Marketing Years: 1995/96 - 1999/00
(metric tons, in-shell equivalent)