U.S.-Canada Quarterly Grain Trade Consultations, August 2002
U.S. and Canadian officials met on August 29, 2002, for grain trade consultations as provided for under the Record of Understanding and Action Plan agreed to between Canada and the United States. Since January 1999, the two sides meet quarterly to exchange information on grain market developments and prospects.
The consultations, as set out in the Action Plan, provide an opportunity for an open and useful discussion on a wide range of grain trade related topics. Officials reviewed the global market situation, including bilateral grain trade flows, projections for the current year, current issues of concern and discussed a number of other measures that could affect trade. Each participantís projections are based on current and anticipated market conditions and may be revised as markets evolve.
The first projections for 2002/03 indicate that due to a sharply reduced crop, overall Canadian wheat exports will decline dramatically, and could be the lowest in years. Wheat exports to the United States are also expected to decline with the biggest drop expected in non-durum exports from western Canada. Canadian durum shipments to the United States are projected to decrease modestly from the relatively high 2001/02 level. Canadian barley exports to the United States, mainly malting quality, are projected to be smaller than the 2001/02 level because of reduced harvest. U.S. corn exports to Canada are expected to increase sharply from the 2001/02 level, particularly to western Canada, reflecting the overall tight feed grain supply in Canada.
The projections are highly tentative at this time
due to uncertainty of the size and quality of the spring crops on both sides of
the border. The projections, which were discussed, are each participantís
views of how markets are likely to evolve and are not commitments.
|Data in this report is available in both Adobe Acrobat 5.0 and Lotus 123 formats. You may need to Get the Adobe Acrobat Reader.|
* Canadian production and export projections were provided by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada and U.S. production and export projections were provided by the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service.