RICE: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE
This year, global trade is forecast down
nearly 3 million tons (8 percent) from 2011 on
lower demand from Bangladesh and Indonesia and
reduced exports from Thailand and Brazil. Global
stocks are the highest since 2002/03, as
production continues to outpace consumption.
India’s re-entry into the market, after
suspending its export ban on non-basmati rice,
pulled prices down for major exporters in recent
months. To be competitive, Vietnamese prices
tumbled the farthest from their recent peak in
early October, with quotes for Viet 5% dropping
$140/MT. U.S. #2/4 prices declined $121/MT,
while quotes for Thai 100B dipped $48/MT. Only
Thai quotes declined relatively less, primarily
due to the paddy pledging scheme, which is also
causing a reduction in exports.
SELECTED TRADE CHANGES
• Brazil falls 250,000 tons to 650,000
on reduced supplies.
• Cambodia is up 300,000 tons to 1.0
million on a larger-than-expected crop.
• Thailand is slashed 1.0 million tons
to 7.0 million on uncompetitive prices and lower
• Bangladesh is down 100,000 tons to
650,000 on ample domestic supplies and
substantial government stocks.
• Philippines is cut 700,000 tons to
1.5 million as the government tries to promote