OVERVIEW     

This year, global trade is forecast down nearly 3 million tons (8 percent) from 2011 on lower demand from Bangladesh and Indonesia and reduced exports from Thailand and Brazil. Global stocks are the highest since 2002/03, as production continues to outpace consumption.

FEATURE

India’s re-entry into the market, after suspending its export ban on non-basmati rice, pulled prices down for major exporters in recent months. To be competitive, Vietnamese prices tumbled the farthest from their recent peak in early October, with quotes for Viet 5% dropping $140/MT. U.S. #2/4 prices declined $121/MT, while quotes for Thai 100B dipped $48/MT. Only Thai quotes declined relatively less, primarily due to the paddy pledging scheme, which is also causing a reduction in exports.

SELECTED TRADE CHANGES FOR 2012

Selected Exporters

• Brazil falls 250,000 tons to 650,000 on reduced supplies.

• Cambodia is up 300,000 tons to 1.0 million on a larger-than-expected crop.

• Thailand is slashed 1.0 million tons to 7.0 million on uncompetitive prices and lower demand.

Selected Importers

• Bangladesh is down 100,000 tons to 650,000 on ample domestic supplies and substantial government stocks.

• Philippines is cut 700,000 tons to 1.5 million as the government tries to promote self-sufficiency.