OVERVIEW     

Rice traded globally in 2011 is still expected to be slightly below the previous year.  Global prices continue to fall as record production exceeds consumption, and stocks are at the highest level since 2002/2003. 

International:  Six months ago, U.S. #2/4 rice quotes started to climb significantly.  However, prices have fallen since January, and in the last month, prices dropped $33 to $533 per ton, FOB.  Thai and Vietnamese quotes have followed the same trend.  Over the last month, quotes for Thai 100 B have come down $25 to $519 per ton, FOB, and Viet quotes for 5% slid $42 to $462 per ton, FOB.  Rice prices of all origins continue to drop despite higher prices for most other commodities. 

Domestic:  California medium grain #1/4 quotes remained steady for the last 5 weeks at $875 per ton, FOB.  

TRADE CHANGES IN 2011 (unless otherwise noted) 

Selected Exporters 

• Burma is slashed 300,000 tons to 200,000 on the recently announced export ban.

• China is dropped by one-third to 600,000 tons as the two approved state companies are expected to ship less.

• India is down 100,000 tons to 2.4 million in 2011 on the expectation that only a small amount of non-basmati will be allowed to ship.  For 2010, exports are cut 250,000 tons to 2.0 million on shipment data.   

• United States is raised 315,000 tons to 3.8 million in 2010 on final official data, the second highest on record. 

• Vietnam is bumped 200,000 tons to 6.0 million on sales to Bangladesh.

Selected Importers 

• Bangladesh is raised one-third to 800,000 tons on recent government purchases targeted at reducing inflation.

• Nigeria is bumped 100,000 tons to a record 2.1 million in 2010 on large shipments from Thailand at the end of the year.

• Philippines is dropped 200,000 tons to 2.4 million in 2010 on near-final shipment data.

• Saudi Arabia is cut 200,000 tons to 1.1 million on the expectation that year-to-year demand will remain flat.