Global coarse grain trade is virtually unchanged this month as increased corn trade is offset by a decrease in barley. Corn production changes resulted in greater Mexican imports and stronger Brazilian exports. U.S. coarse grain exports and imports are unchanged this month.  

Brazil’s corn exports are boosted this month to a record 10.0 million tons (Oct-Sep basis), aided by high international prices and strong U.S. soybean exports that have tied up port capacity. As Brazil’s soybean export program begins to ramp up, its corn shipments are expected to slow down seasonally.  

Plantings for the crucial winter-crop (safrinha) are running behind, so it remains to be seen how much competition U.S. corn will face in the 2011/12 trade year starting next October. Nonetheless, after shipping over 7.5 million tons from October 2010 through February 2011, Brazil will easily reach the record forecast this year. 

Domestic: Through the end of February, U.S. corn export price movement has been choppy, rising $30/ton to $311/ton on growing concerns about tight U.S. supplies. However, early March prices show a retreat of nearly $11/ton. While Argentine corn had been selling at a premium, it has now shifted to a seasonal discount to U.S. corn. Following Brazil’s aggressive export program, soybeans are expected to utilize port capacity so corn prices are unquoted. 

Selected Exporters

• Brazilian corn is raised 1.0 million tons to a record 10.0 million based on unprecedented shipments from October to February.

• EU barley is cut 300,000 tons to 4.6 million on slow Russian demand and tight supplies of malting barley (Russian barley is halved to 300,000 tons).

• Ukrainian barley is down 800,000 tons to 3.2 million on continued export restrictions as well as weaker demand from Saudi Arabia.

• Australian sorghum is up 200,000 tons to 1.0 million on greater exportable supplies.

Selected Importers

• EU corn is boosted 1.0 million tons again this month to 6.5 million, and sorghum is raised 200,000 tons to 700,000 based on the strong pace of import licenses and tight domestic feed grain supplies.

• Kenyan corn is down 250,000 tons to 50,000 as a result of ample supplies.

• Mexican corn is raised 1.1 million tons to 9.0 million due to crop damage from the recent freeze (consequently, exports are cut 200,000 tons to 100,000).

• Russian corn is halved to 500,000 tons on weaker-than-expected feed grain demand.

• Chinese barley is down 200,000 tons to 1.9 million based on the slow pace of shipments and tight global supplies of malting barley.

• Saudi Arabian barley is cut 600,000 tons to 6.7 million based on slow trade and the Saudi government’s efforts to limit barley imports (and subsidies).