RICE: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE
weather problems in China and Pakistan, global
crop prospects remain excellent. Record world
production is expected to not only meet rising
demand but also maintain global stocks at the
highest level since 2004.
Though quotes from
all origins are up somewhat from last month,
Vietnamís increase is the most dramatic. With
2010 contracts already at a record 6.2 million
tons, Vietnam raised the minimum export price of
5% broken to $450 per ton FOB, essentially
halting new sales and, for the first time,
pushing above higher-quality U.S. #2/4 quotes
($445 per ton FOB). Vietnamese quotes are now
only $30 below Thai 100B quotes, a stark
departure from the $120 spread just 2 months
ago. As sales stall in Vietnam, Thai sales are
expected to increase as the government finally
releases intervention stocks. U.S. long-grain
sales are also expected to pick up on new-found
competitiveness and a record crop. By contrast,
the medium-grain trade is somewhat on hold as
the California crop has yet to be harvested. In
addition, many tenders in major markets have yet
to be announced.
TRADE CHANGES for 2011
Pakistanís exports are slashed 750,000
tons to 2.9 million as floods have reduced the
crop and damaged infrastructure.
Afghanistanís imports are reduced 100,000
tons to 200,000, as Pakistan is by far the
largest supplier due to proximity and relative
Iranís imports are cut 300,000 tons to
1.2 million on the expectation that imports from
Pakistan will fall.
TRADE CHANGES for 2010
Thailandís exports are down 500,000 tons
to 9.0 million because the government stock
release is happening much later in the year than
Vietnamís exports are bumped 450,000 tons
to a record 6.2 million on contracts to date.
By contrast, imports are dropped 100,000 tons to
400,000 on a slowdown of border trade with
Indonesiaís imports are doubled to
500,000 tons as relatively high domestic prices
have caused a surge in trade with neighboring
Iranís imports are dropped 150,000 tons
to 1.2 million on the pace of shipments.
imports are lowered 100,000 tons to 1.7 million
on slower-than-expected imports from Thailand.