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United States Department of Agriculture
Foreign Agricultural Service
Circular Series
FG 0910
September 2010
Grain:  World Markets and Trade

Text Box:  

COARSE GRAINS: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE 

OVERVIEW 

Global corn imports are forecast up significantly on expectations of increased import demand from the EU and Russia.  Although USDA forecasts a slight reduction in the U.S. crop this month, the United States still has supplies of corn to meet this higher demand. 

PRICES:

Domestic: Through early September, U.S. corn export prices rallied over $30/ton to $221/ton, the highest level since late September 2008.  The jump in prices is a result of continued concern over shrinking Russian grain supplies, disappointing early harvest results in the United States, and strong U.S. export sales to traditional markets such as Japan and Mexico.   

Brazilian and Argentine quotes were also sharply higher on strong import demand from the Middle East, North Africa, parts of Southeast Asia, and prospects for the EU. 

TRADE CHANGES IN 2010/11

Selected Exporters

 

  • U.S. corn is boosted by 1.5 million tons to 53.5 million as a result of expanding global feed grain demand and will likely backfill in Asian and some North African countries, as Ukrainian and South American corn covers new demand from Russia and the EU.

 

  • Brazilian corn is up 500,000 tons to 9.0 million on greater exportable supplies.

 

  • Ukrainian corn is raised 500,000 tons to 5.5 million due to strong demand from Russia.

 

  • Canadian barley jumps 400,000 tons to 1.4 million on larger old crop exportable supplies and greater new crop production.

 

  • U.S. sorghum is raised 200,000 tons to 4.0 million because of prospects for EU demand.

 

  • Canadian oat exports are lowered 200,000 tons to 1.3 million on sharply lower production, while imports for the United States are cut 200,000 tons to 1.4 million.

 

Selected Importers

 

  • Canadian corn is cut 300,000 tons to 2.2 million based on higher expected production.

 

  • EU corn is up 2.0 million tons to 5.0 million with continued cuts in crop production. (Exports are also cut in half to 500,000 tons.)

 

  • Japanese corn is cut 200,000 tons to 16.1 million (and the prior year is cut 300,000 tons) based on slackening feed grain demand arising from animal disease problems.

 

  • Russian corn is up 700,000 tons to 1.0 million, the highest in over 15 years, in the face of tight feed grain supplies and strong domestic demand.

 

  • Russian rye imports are tripled to 300,000 tons on expectations of imports from nearby countries, particularly Belarus. 

 

 

TRADE CHANGES IN 2009/10

 

Selected Exporters

 

  • Argentine corn is raised sharply by 1.5 million tons to 15.5 million because of near-record March-August shipments.

 

  • Argentine sorghum is boosted 200,000 tons to 1.4 million, the highest in well over a decade, and Australian sorghum is cut 200,000 tons; both are based on trade data.

 

  • South African corn is cut 400,000 tons to 1.6 million because of slow exports, despite record supplies and stocks.

 

  • Ukrainian corn is lowered 200,000 tons to 5.0 million because of slow late-season trade.

 

Selected Importers

 

Chinese, Egyptian, Indonesian, and Mexican corn are boosted a combined 1.2 million tons based on trade data.

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