Grain: World Markets and Trade- Rice

United States Department of Agriculture
Foreign Agricultural Service

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United States Department of Agriculture

Foreign Agricultural Service

Circular Series
FG 0510

May 2010

Grain: World Markets and Trade

RICE: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE

With record global production outpacing consumption, stocks are forecast to resume their upward climb. Governments of many importing and exporting countries continue to promote rice production by subsidizing input costs or purchasing local paddy to boost farm gate prices.

The build-up in stocks among major exporters is largely due to India’s recovery from an erratic monsoon in 2009 but also reflects increases in Thailand and the United States.

Despite rising production in large importing countries such as the Philippines and Nigeria and near self-sufficiency in traditional importers like Indonesia and Bangladesh, trade is expected to recover to a near-record after several years of uncertainty associated with unusual price volatility and concerns about the availability of supplies.

Global prices are expected to remain soft. Quotes for benchmark Thai 100B have dropped around $70 per ton since last year to levels not seen since the run-up in early 2008.

TRADE CHANGES FOR 2010

Selected Exporters:

Ecuador is raised 100,000 tons to 150,000 based on a recent sales agreement with Venezuela.

India is boosted 200,000 tons to 2.2 million on Middle Eastern demand for basmati rice, especially PUSA-1121.

Thailand is cut 500,000 tons to 9.5 million on slow demand and delays in the release of government stocks.

Selected Importers:

Brazil is bumped 100,000 tons to 850,000 based on lower production caused by heavy rainfall.

Bangladesh is halved to 250,000 tons on sufficient domestic supplies and low prices that make imports uncompetitive.

MARKETING YEAR CHANGES

Marketing years for the countries below have been changed to better reflect each country’s natural production and marketing cycles. The definitions were changed beginning with 2007/2008 (unless noted):

January-December*

Suriname

April-March

Bolivia

Colombia

Ecuador

Paraguay

Peru**

Venezuela

July-June

Cuba

Dominican Republic

Haiti

Jamaica

Trinidad and Tobago

August-July

Canada

October-September

El Salvador

Guatemala

Honduras**

Nicaragua

Panama

Sri Lanka

* For Marketing Year 2007/2008, the starting month is January 2007.

** Changes start 2000/2001.

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