COARSE GRAINS: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE

World coarse grain production in 2010/11 is forecast 27 million tons above the previous year and a new record. With global consumption expanding by 25 million tons, also a new record, ending stocks are forecast to build for the fourth consecutive year. World coarse grain trade is expected up 3 percent to 114 million tons.     

Global corn production is forecast at a record 835 million tons, up 26 million from last year. Consumption is projected to climb 19 million tons to a record 828 million.  About three-quarters of the gain in both production and consumption will take place in foreign countries.

Growth in corn used for ethanol in the United States is expected to slow to 5 million tons (5 percent above last year) but still a new record.  Feed use is forecast to ease fractionally by less than 1 million tons.  

World corn trade is expected to be up from last year, but still in line with the long-term trend. U.S. exports are forecast up but market share is about unchanged because of expanded competition from Argentina and from large supplies of feed-quality wheat. In addition, favorable production in South Africa, Ukraine, China, and elsewhere will either spur export competition or diminish import demand. Mexican and Korean imports are forecast up a combined 1.9 million tons due to strong demand. Canadian imports are up 500,000 tons, despite a larger crop, because of a strong need for biofuel feedstock and an improvement in the livestock sector.

World barley trade is expected to decline marginally as trade in feed barley is limited by abundant supplies of other feed grains and larger pasture crops in some importing countries.  Russian and Ukrainian exports are forecast lower than last year because of reduced import demand in the Middle East due to larger crops.  EU exports are forecast higher as abundant supplies and lower prices in the absence of intervention support should increase the competitiveness of exports.  China’s barley imports, most of which are used for malting, are forecast down slightly as brewers are expected to utilize other domestic ingredients. 

Global sorghum trade is forecast down 7 percent led by tight U.S. supplies and reduced import demand in Mexico and Japan.

Global oats trade is forecast up fractionally as greater seeded area in Canada is expected to result in slightly higher exports to the United States, where oat seedings are expected to decline slightly.  

PRICES:

Domestic: For April, U.S. corn export quotes rose, as strong sales and shipments and confirmed Chinese purchases more than offset a stronger dollar and brisk planting progress. Argentine quotes rose as well while still maintaining an unusual premium to U.S. corn on a FOB-to-FOB basis. This reversal is caused by heavy soybean shipments in place of corn and little unused corn export quota in Argentina; at the same time, U.S. exporters aggressively priced large supplies.

Brazilian quotes were unavailable for the month of April.

HIGHLIGHTS FOR 2009/10

Selected Exporters

• U.S. corn is boosted 1.0 million tons to 49.0 million based on recent strong sales and shipments.

• Brazilian, Indian, Serbian, and South African corn are cut 500,000 tons each (a total of 2.0 million tons) in the face of revitalized U.S. competition and a slight contraction in global demand.

• EU-27 corn is cut by 250,000 tons (from 1.5 million) based on the pace of export licenses.

• A data series was added for Laos corn (starting in 1995) as the country has greatly expanded production to 1.6 million tons for 2010/11 and has become a consistent regional exporter. For 2009/10, exports are forecast at 250,000 tons.

• U.S. sorghum is boosted 300,000 tons to 4.1 million because of strong sales and shipments to Japan and Mexico.

Selected Importers

• Chilean corn imports are slashed by 450,000 tons to 750,000 because of substitution by other feed ingredients.

• Chinese corn is raised by 200,000 tons to 300,000, the highest in over 10 years, based on reported U.S. sales.

• Indonesian corn is boosted 200,000 tons to 300,000 because of expanded ASEAN trade.

• Libyan and Saudi Arabian corn imports are each cut 200,000 tons based on the slow pace of trade.

• Philippine corn imports are cut sharply to 100,000 tons because of slow trade and reports of stronger meat imports combined with slack feed demand.

• South Korean corn is up 300,000 tons to 7.8 million with higher consumption.

• Tunisian barley is lowered 200,000 tons to 100,000 on continued slower-than-expected imports.   

• Japanese and Mexican sorghum are boosted a combined 300,000 tons because of strong purchases and shipments. (If realized, these would be the highest in 9 years for Japan.)