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| United States Department of Agriculture |
| Foreign Agricultural Service |
Circular Series
FG 0409 |
| April 2009 |
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Grain:
World Markets and Trade
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WHEAT: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE
With the 2008
drought-reduced wheat crops in the Middle East
and North Africa, import demand for milling
wheat is projected to jump nearly 33 percent
(10.8 million tons) providing extraordinary
opportunities for Ukraine, Russia, and the EU.
The competition for these markets, while
currently strong, is expected to further
intensify as early indications suggest higher
production in the coming year for these regions.
All three exporters had bumper crops in 2008
providing a huge exportable surplus, and
pressuring prices. This, combined with
logistical advantages, falling freight rates,
and geo-political relationships, all play a part
in this intensified competition.
PRICES:
Domestic:
Prices for all wheat classes declined slightly
in March. Hard Red Winter (HRW) fell $7 to
$232/ton, Soft Red Winter (SRW) slipped $6 to
$182/ton, Hard Red Spring (HRS) eased $3 to
$289/ton, and Soft White (SWW) fell $5 to
$215/ton.
TRADE CHANGES IN
2008/2009
Selected Exporters
- Argentina
is up 1.7 million tons to 7.5 million based
on larger-than-expected shipments to Brazil
and nontraditional markets, such as Iran.
- Canada is cut 1.5 million tons to
17.5 million given the slow pace of
shipments and intensified competition.
- EU is raised 1.5 million tons to
21.0 million on the continued strong pace of
export licenses.
- Russia
is raised 500,000 tons to a record 16.5
million on the continued strong pace of
sales to nearby countries.
- Ukraine is up 1.0 million tons to a
record 11.0 million, with sales into
unexpected markets.
- Uruguay
is raised 400,000 tons to 700,000 on
increased regional export opportunities due
to Argentina’s smaller crop.
Selected Importers
- Bangladesh
is up 300,000 tons to 2.3 million, the most
in over 25 years, on the strong pace of
imports, particularly from the Black Sea.
- Egypt
is raised 400,000 tons to 8.2 million, a
record, as import demand continues to be
strong.
- EU
is up 500,000 tons to 6.5 million on
continued purchases of cheaper feed-quality
wheat from Russia and Ukraine.
- Iran
is raised 1.5 million tons to 8.5 million,
making it the world’s largest importer,
based on the strong pace of shipments and
the governments’ reported intention to
continue importing wheat.
- South Korea
is cut 300,000 tons to 3.8 million on the
slow pace of imports.
- Tunisia
is boosted 300,000 tons to 1.8 million on
the strong pace of imports from Russia,
Ukraine, and the EU.
- Turkey
is raised 200,000 tons to 2.5 million based
on the strong pace of imports, particularly
from Russia.
- United States
is up 100,000 tons to 3.2 million on
increased spring wheat and durum imports
from Canada.
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