Record global production in 2008/09 is projected at 432 million tons (milled basis). Larger crops are forecast in almost all producing countries in response to higher world prices. Global consumption continues its upward trend, despite record world prices. With production exceeding consumption, ending stocks are also expected to continue their upward trajectory, increasing almost 4 million tons to 82 million.

On the other hand, continued restrictive export policies are expected to constrain world supplies and potentially sustain high prices. Concern over internal price inflation is also causing some countries to continue buying rice on the world market, despite record prices. Furthermore, with the exception of India, major exporters’ ending stocks which would normally be available to the world market are not being replenished.