World coarse grain production in 2008/09 is forecast to barely exceed last year’s record. With global consumption expanding by a modest 12 million tons, ending stocks are forecast to drop to their lowest levels in over 30 years. World coarse grains trade is down as supplies (and trade) of feed quality wheat are more abundant, although the upward trend in coarse grains trade remains clear.

Global corn production is forecast at 778 million tons, just below last year’s record. Consumption is projected to climb over 10 million tons to a new record of 788 million tons. Both of these gains are led largely by non-U.S. production and consumption. Foreign production has exploded nearly 100 million tons over the past 5 years while consumption is up 80 million.

Corn used for ethanol in the United States is expected to grow by one-third to nearly twice that of exports. Feed use will drop by nearly the same tonnage as ethanol will expand.

World corn trade is expected to be down from last year’s record but still be in line with the long-term trend. U.S. exports and market share are forecast to drop because of tighter supplies at home, availability of foreign feed-quality wheat, and strong competition from the Southern Hemisphere. China is expected to remain a net corn exporter but at greatly diminished levels for the second year in a row. EU-27 imports are expected to be cut nearly in half as domestic supplies of feed grains (especially feed-quality wheat) recover. South Korea will return as one of the top three importers as corn continues to edge out wheat in feed rations. Mexico’s imports are forecast up with continued robust feed growth.

World barley trade is expected to rebound in 2008/09 on higher global production. Australian, Ukrainian, and EU-27 exports are forecast to rise relative to last year on robust crops and continued strong import demand in Asia and North Africa (Japan, China, Morocco and Tunisia). Imports to the Middle East will grow following poor harvests due to drought in the region.

Global sorghum trade is forecast at 6 million tons, down one-third from 2007/08, returning to normal. EU-27 trade is projected down to 2.0 million tons because of a return to normal feeding and trade patterns. Improved grain crop prospects there will likely result in less demand for imported corn and sorghum, which will be offset by feed-quality wheat.

Mexico’s imports are forecast at 1.5 million tons, up year-to-year, but continuing a downward trend. Corn use has expanded because of the elimination of the required cupos earlier this year at the same time that extraordinary demand for sorghum from the EU-27 put upward pressure on prices.

Global oat trade is forecast to decline slightly in 2008/09 as major producers switch to more lucrative crops. Canadian exports to the United States will fall 200,000 tons as Canadian production is forecast to drop 700,000 tons in favor of wheat, flax, and canola. EU-27 exports to the United States will only partially offset this decline.

PRICES:

Domestic: U.S. corn export prices averaged $251 per ton in April, up $16 from March. The slow pace of U.S. plantings (expectations of tightened supplies) and uncertainty over Argentina’s status (resumption of farmer strikes) have supported higher prices. Sorghum prices averaged $253 per ton, up $16 from March. Prices remain strong due to demand from the EU-27.

• India corn is more than doubled to a 1.5 million tons based on reports of trade to Southeast Asia and because of a record crop.

• Paraguay corn is boosted 400,000 tons to a 2.0 million because of strong, early season trade (especially to Brazil).

• South Africa corn is raised 300,000 tons to 1.8 million, the highest in 13 years, because of better crop prospects. (Imports are cut in half to 500,000 tons.)

• Thailand corn is more than doubled to 500,000 tons. Trade to ASEAN countries is brisk in the absence of Chinese corn.

• Ukraine corn is cut to just 1.0 million tons (down by 500,000), despite the lifting of export quotas. It is late the in year to achieve the previous forecast and there are reports that sales are hampered because of quality issues.

• Canadian barley is raised 200,000 tons to 2.6 million following continued purchases from Saudi Arabia.

• Ukrainian barley is lowered 300,000 tons as it is not expected that enough time will be available to reach the 900,000 tons quota extension.

• EU-27 corn is boosted by 1.5 tons to 13.0 million, the highest in 25 years, based on the pace of import licenses and reports of brisk new-crop sales and shipments from Brazil and Argentina.

• Turkey corn is cut by 300,000 tons to 500,000 because of a slow pace of tenders and shipments.

• Saudi Arabian barley is up 400,000 tons to 6 million due to strong pace.

• EU-27 sorghum is boosted by 800,000 tons to 5.3 million, a new record, based on the pace of import licenses, U.S. commitments, and shipments from Brazil and Argentina.

• Mexico sorghum is cut by 500,000 tons to 1.0 million, the lowest in 20 years, because of the slow pace of sales from the United States.