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| United States Department of Agriculture |
| Foreign Agricultural Service |
Circular Series
FG 0408 |
| April 2008 |
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Grain:
World Markets and Trade
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WHEAT: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE
MONTHLY HIGHLIGHTS:
This
month, cuts in Australian, Argentine
and Ukrainian exports were offset by boosting
the U.S. estimate 2 million tons.
Australia’s export prospects are worse than
previously thought and its exports have been cut
another 500,000 tons to 7.5 million, the lowest
in 13 years. Domestic industries are paying
higher prices in order to keep more of the
limited supplies in the country. After the first
four months of data from the October/September
marketing year, the monthly shipments are well
below last year and substantially behind the
5-year average. Preliminary estimates for
February and March indicate that the pace of
shipments continues to be slower than previously
forecast.
PRICES:
Domestic:
In March, wheat prices retreated
from their historic highs. Demand was strong for
Soft Red Winter (SRW) and Hard Red Winter (HRW)
with surprising sales reported to West and North
Africa and steady for all other classes. For the
month HRW was down $60 per ton, Hard Red Spring
(HRS) plunged $100, SRW dropped $55, and Soft
White (SWW) slumped $80.
TRADE CHANGES IN
2007/2008
Selected Exporters
- Argentina is lowered 500,000 tons to
9.5 million on continued delays in
finalizing export registration procedures.
- Australia is cut 500,000 tons to 7.5
million, the lowest level in 13 years, as
shipments have been lower than expected.
- Brazil
is boosted 200,000 tons to
500,000 due to large shipments to Algeria,
Pakistan, and Morocco.
- China is up 200,000 tons to 2.7
million based on strong February flour
shipments to Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia,
and the Philippines.
- Ukraine is slashed 1.0 million tons
to 500,000 as the government extended its
export quota until the end of April.
- United States is raised 2.0 million
tons to 35.5 million, the highest in over 15
years, as sales and shipments to a range of
markets maintain a consistently strong pace.
Selected Importers
- Ethiopia
is down 200,000 tons to
300,000 on an increased, old-crop production
estimate and slow year-to-date shipments.
- Libya is up 200,000 tons to 1.3
million due to large shipments from both
Russia and EU-27.
- Tunisia is raised 200,000 tons to
1.5 million with greater-than-expected
imports from Kazakhstan.
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