 |
| United States Department of Agriculture |
| Foreign Agricultural Service |
Circular Series
FG 0308 |
| March 2008 |
|
Grain:
World Markets and Trade
|
WHEAT: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE
MONTHLY HIGHLIGHTS:
Brazil will likely import 90
percent of its wheat from Argentina from January
through June, keeping with historical trends.
Brazil is not
expected to be greatly affected by Argentina’s
recent decision to delay export loadings until
April 8, 2008. The Government of Brazil (GOB)
has removed the 10 percent import tariff on 1.0
million tons of non-Mercosur wheat until June
30, 2008. Notably, the GOB did not remove the
Merchant Marine tax which adds 25 percent to the
cost of freight on non-Mercosur wheat imports.
Argentina’s exports to Brazil are expected at 3.3
million tons for January through June, leaving
400,000 tons to be supplied by other countries.
Despite the lower import tax, U.S. wheat is
still $100 per ton CIF more expensive than
Argentine wheat. Brazil appears to have its
import requirements covered through the middle
of April and due to record high prices might
shift some of its purchases into the next trade
year.
PRICES:
Domestic: For February, wheat prices were up
broadly, led by HRS, which peaked at $904 per
ton! Demand remained strong for all classes with
new sales to the Mediterranean area and the
Middle East. For the month, Hard Red Winter (HRW)
was up $84 per ton, Hard Red Spring (HRS) jumped
$176, Soft Red Winter (SRW) climbed $54, and
Soft White (SWW) was up $12.
TRADE CHANGES IN
2007/2008
Selected Exporters
- Argentina is down 500,000 tons to
10.0 million based on announced changes to
export registration procedures.
- Brazil is up 260,000 tons to 300,000
due to strong shipments to Morocco and
India.
- United States is raised 500,000 tons
to 33.5 million, the highest in over 10
years, as sales and shipments to most
markets continue despite high prices.
Selected Importers
- India is down 200,000 tons to 1.8
million on higher than expected old crop
production.
- Turkmenistan is up 150,000 tons to
175,000, the largest in over a decade,
because of larger purchases from Kazakhstan.
- Yemen is down 200,000 tons to 1.9
million on expectations of smaller purchases
due to high prices during the second half of
the year.
Return to Table of
Contents
|
|
