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United States Department of Agriculture
Foreign Agricultural Service
Circular Series
FG 0308
March 2008
Grain:  World Markets and Trade

COARSE GRAINS: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE

MONTHLY HIGHLIGHTS:

Argentina Reopens Corn Export Registrations: With the reopening of corn export sales after a long hiatus, 2.1 million tons were registered in the first two days. Assuming no further restrictions on sales and shipments, logistical constraints pose no threat to USDA’s forecast of 14.5 million tons, despite competition for port facilities from wheat and soybeans.

PRICES:

Domestic: U.S corn export prices averaged $226 per ton in February, up over $6 from January. Demand for feed grains and tight supplies have kept corn prices strong. Sorghum prices averaged $227 per ton, down $4 from January. Prices remain firm due to continued demand from the EU-27.

TRADE CHANGES IN 2007/2008

Selected Exporters

  • China corn is cut in half to 500,000 tons, the lowest since 1995/96. Recent reports indicate that new sales are not being permitted as the government seeks to ensure grain supplies are sufficient to meet domestic demand and to control food price inflation.

  • Brazil corn is boosted by 1.5 million tons to a record 10.5 million. Continued new-crop sales to the EU-27 have given Brazil extraordinary market opportunities.

  • India corn is raised 200,000 tons to 700,000 based on reports of shipments to Southeast Asia.

  • Australia sorghum is up 200,000 tons to 250,000 on an expected record crop (2.5 million tons).

Selected Importers

  • EU-27 corn is boosted by 500,000 tons to 10.5 million, the highest in over 20 years, based on sales and shipments from Brazil and reports of pending new-crop sales from Argentina.

  • Malaysia corn is down by 200,000 tons to 2.5 million. Although a recovery in livestock production is expected this year, trade data for the prior year showed a slowing of feed grain demand (imports were lowered by 300,000 tons).

  • Mexico corn is cut by 500,000 tons to 9.7 million based on the pace of purchases and shipments. Although the final provisions of NAFTA were expected to result in a surge of corn imports from the United States, that has not yet happened. Cracked corn imports are down year-to-year as expected but dried distillers grains are up.

  • Uruguay corn is raised by 200,000 tons to 300,000 based on strong border trade with Paraguay in the first quarter of the trade year.

  • China barley imports are down 100,000 tons to 1.2 million due to higher production. (Exports were raised 90,000 tons to 100,000 on increased shipments to Saudi Arabia and Japan).

  • EU-27 sorghum is up 300,000 tons to 4.3 million based on the pace of import licenses and expected shipments from Argentina and Brazil.

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