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United States Department of Agriculture
Foreign Agricultural Service
Circular Series
FG 1007
October 2007
Grain:  World Markets and Trade

WHEAT: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE

MONTHLY HIGHLIGHTS:

Central Asian Supplier Takes Center Stage: Kazakhstan’s presence as a major supplier has become a crucial factor in world trade. With higher exportable supplies in 2007/08, it is expected to export 8 million tons. This will adequately satisfy the needs of its neighboring countries, which have been experiencing rising bread prices. Kazakhstan also will become an important player in the tight global wheat market by picking up slack from Ukraine and EU-27. Although landlocked, it still has a competitive advantage in delivering wheat to some major importers (e.g. Egypt, EU-27, Tunisia, and Yemen) due to access to Black Sea ports. This does not necessarily shut the door to more expensive U.S. exports, especially to those buyers that have stricter quality standards.

PRICES:

Domestic: For September, wheat prices for all classes surged on strong export sales, continued surging global import demand, and deteriorating crop conditions in Australia. For the month, Hard Red Winter (HRW) rose $43 per ton, Hard Red Spring (HRS) rose $54, Soft Red Winter (SRW) rose $40, and Soft White (SWW) rose $66.

TRADE CHANGES IN 2007/2008

Selected Exporters

  • Australia is down 4.5 million tons to 8.5 million on devastating weather that has reduced production estimates.

  • Argentina is up 500,000 tons to 10.0 million on improved crop prospects.

  • China is up 500,000 tons to 3.0 million on expected strong sales to neighboring countries.

  • EU-27 is down 500,000 tons to 10.0 million reflecting lower production.

  • Kazakhstan is up 1.5 million tons to 8.0 million on estimated higher production.

  • United States is up 1.5 million tons to 31.5 million on stronger global import demand and less competition from some major suppliers, particularly Australia.

Selected Importers

  • Nigeria is down 300,000 tons to 3.0 million on expected smaller purchases due to high prices.

  • Pakistan is up 350,000 tons to 500,000 on a Government of Pakistan announcement of subsequent tenders in the next few months.

  • Turkey is up 300,000 tons to 1.5 million due to a poor crop.

TRADE CHANGES IN 2006/2007

Selected Exporters

  • Australia is down 3,000 tons to 11.241 million based on final trade numbers.

  • Kazakhstan is up 2.0 million tons to 8.0 million based on final trade numbers.

  • Russia is up 90,000 tons to 10.790 million based on final trade numbers.

Selected Importers

  • Egypt is up 500,000 tons to 7.3 million due to large purchases from Syria.

  • Turkey is up 333,000 tons to 1.8 million on strong late-season imports from Russia and Kazakhstan.

  • Tajikistan is up 400,000 tons to 900,000 with late-season purchases from Kazakhstan.

  • Uzbekistan is up 450,000 tons to 1.1 million with late-season purchases from Kazakhstan.

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