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| United States Department of Agriculture |
| Foreign Agricultural Service |
Circular Series
FG 1007 |
| October 2007 |
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Grain:
World Markets and Trade
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WHEAT: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE
MONTHLY HIGHLIGHTS:
Central Asian Supplier Takes
Center Stage: Kazakhstan’s presence as a
major supplier has become a crucial factor in
world trade. With higher exportable supplies in
2007/08, it is expected to export 8 million
tons. This will adequately satisfy the needs of
its neighboring countries, which have been
experiencing rising bread prices. Kazakhstan
also will become an important player in the
tight global wheat market by picking up slack
from Ukraine and EU-27. Although landlocked, it
still has a competitive advantage in delivering
wheat to some major importers (e.g. Egypt,
EU-27, Tunisia, and Yemen) due to access to
Black Sea ports. This does not necessarily shut
the door to more expensive U.S. exports,
especially to those buyers that have stricter
quality standards.
PRICES:
Domestic: For
September, wheat prices for all classes surged
on strong export sales, continued surging global
import demand, and deteriorating crop conditions
in Australia. For the month, Hard Red Winter (HRW)
rose $43 per ton, Hard Red Spring (HRS) rose
$54, Soft Red Winter (SRW) rose $40, and Soft
White (SWW) rose $66.
TRADE CHANGES IN 2007/2008
Selected Exporters
- Australia is down 4.5 million tons to
8.5 million on devastating weather that has
reduced production estimates.
- Argentina is up 500,000 tons to 10.0
million on improved crop prospects.
- China is up 500,000 tons to 3.0 million
on expected strong sales to neighboring
countries.
- EU-27 is down 500,000 tons to 10.0
million reflecting lower production.
- Kazakhstan is up 1.5 million tons to 8.0
million on estimated higher production.
- United States is up 1.5 million tons to
31.5 million on stronger global import
demand and less competition from some major
suppliers, particularly Australia.
Selected Importers
- Nigeria is down 300,000 tons to 3.0
million on expected smaller purchases due to
high prices.
- Pakistan is up 350,000 tons to 500,000
on a Government of Pakistan announcement of
subsequent tenders in the next few months.
- Turkey is up 300,000 tons to 1.5 million
due to a poor crop.
TRADE CHANGES IN 2006/2007
Selected Exporters
- Australia is down 3,000 tons to 11.241
million based on final trade numbers.
- Kazakhstan is up 2.0 million tons to 8.0
million based on final trade numbers.
- Russia is up 90,000 tons to 10.790
million based on final trade numbers.
Selected Importers
- Egypt is up 500,000 tons to 7.3 million
due to large purchases from Syria.
- Turkey is up 333,000 tons to 1.8 million
on strong late-season imports from Russia
and Kazakhstan.
- Tajikistan is up 400,000 tons to 900,000
with late-season purchases from Kazakhstan.
- Uzbekistan is up 450,000 tons to 1.1
million with late-season purchases from
Kazakhstan.
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