WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE :

COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA

Growth in Imports Catches Up with Exports: Since forecasts began for the 2006/07 trade year, exports have climbed with greater supplies in Argentina, Brazil, and China. At the same time, imports for key countries such as Korea, Mexico, EU-27, and parts of Latin America have grown significantly. Consequently, the difference between known exports and imports at the global level is exceptionally small.

Domestic: June export bids for U.S. #2 yellow corn averaged $167, up $6 per ton. Since mid-June, however, daily export bids for Gulf shipment prices have dropped over $30 per ton due to improved weather and huge acreage planted (up 3 percent on March estimates), the highest since 1944.

• United States corn is raised by 1.0 million tons to 51.0 million because of a higher crop estimate and reduced competition from Ukraine (smaller crop prospects). Ukraine corn is cut by 1.0 million tons to 1.5 million.

• Australia barley is strengthened 500,000 tons to 5.0 million in expectation of a larger crop and less competition from Ukraine.

• EU-27 barley is up 500,000 tons to 3.5 million due to an increased production estimate and less competition from Black Sea suppliers.

• Ukraine barley is cut 1.0 million tons to 2.5 million as hot, dry weather again reduced the crop forecast.

• United States corn is cut by 1.0 million tons this month to 53.0 million. Although sales have increased with the recent easing of prices and a lack of new sales from Argentina, U.S. shipments have slowed in recent weeks from the blistering pace seen last year at this time.

• Algeria corn is up 300,000 tons to a record 2.4 million with strong shipments from both Argentina and the United States.

• EU-27 corn is boosted again this month to 5.3 million (up 300,000 tons). The most recent quarter saw nearly 1.7 million tons of import licenses awarded, continuing 4 quarters of steady growth.

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Last modified: Thursday, July 12, 2007