WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE :

COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA

Canadian Barley Farmers Vote to End Canadian Wheat Board’s Monopoly On Barley: During the end of March the results of a barley plebiscite were announced indicating that a majority of Canadian farmers want to have greater choice in where to market their barley crop. Results show that 48 percent want the choice to market to the CWB or the open-market, 14 percent were in favor of getting the CWB out of barley marketing completely and only 38 percent voted to retain the CWB.

As a result of this, on April 3, Chuck Strahl, Minister of Agriculture and Agri-Food and Minister for the Canadian Wheat Board, stated, "We now have a mandate from farmers to move to marketing choice, to provide Western Canadian grain growers with the freedom to choose how they market their barley. It is the Government’s intention to make marketing choice a reality by August 1, 2007 - in time for the coming crop year." Canada is typically the fifth largest barley exporter in the world, with exports this year expected at 1.5 million tons. The majority of exports are typically malting barley, primarily to the United States and China, whereas barley feed exports are usually shipped to Saudi Arabia and Japan.

PRICES:

Domestic: March export bids for U.S. #2 yellow corn averaged $172, down $7 per ton. Since mid-February, daily export bids for Gulf shipment have dropped over $40 per ton. Large planting intentions, and impacts from other commodities markets have combined for a more bearish outlook. However, recent cold and wet weather in key growing areas and stronger soybean prices relative to corn have supported prices in recent days.

• China corn is slashed by 500,000 tons to 3.5 million, the lowest in 8 years. The United States and Argentina remain competitive to North Asia, and there are no indications that China will approve significant additional corn export quotas.

• Paraguay corn jumps by 600,000 tons to 1.1 million on the basis of updated trade data showing strong shipments to Brazil.

• Argentine barley is raised 100,000 tons to 400,000 on larger production and strong sales to Brazil.

• United States sorghum is cut by 200,000 tons to 3.8 million, the lowest in 35 years, based on the slow pace of sales to Mexico.

• EU rye is cut 100,000 tons to 250,000, the lowest in 25-years, on diminished intervention supplies and minimal free market export sales.

• Egypt corn is cut by 500,000 tons to 4.3 million because of slack demand from the poultry industry.

• South Africa corn is up again this month, now by 200,000 tons (to over 1 million) because of deteriorating production prospects. These would be the highest imports in over a decade.

• Brazil barley is raised 100,000 tons to 250,000 on strong purchases from Argentina.

• Mexico sorghum is lowered by 200,000 tons to 2.1 million based on the slowest purchase pace in over 10 years because of a shift to corn.

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Last modified: Tuesday, April 10, 2007