WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE :

COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA

MONTHLY HIGHLIGHTS: See PDF version for charts

Taiwan Seeks Chinese Corn: Recently, Taiwan's livestock industry has shown interest in purchasing up to 500,000 tons of Chinese corn due to high U.S. prices. However, trade sources expect perhaps 50,000 tons will be purchased and delivered by the end of February, when the current Taiwanese government authority expires. Strong domestic demand is keeping Chinese corn out of the export market, and there is little history to suggest large sales to Taiwan that would significantly impact U.S. dominance in that key corn market. Taiwan is expected to import 4.5 million tons of corn this year, nearly all from the United States.

PRICES:

Domestic: December export bids for U.S. #2 yellow corn dropped for the first time in 6 months and averaged $160. Prices remain high with strong domestic and foreign demand, and slack competition from China and Argentina.

• United States corn is up 1.0 million tons to 56.5 million. Huge outstanding sales, a rapid shipment pace to date, and continued limited competition have combined to push exports to a 12-year high despite soaring prices.

• Brazil corn is raised 1.0 million this month to 4.5 million because of ample exportable supplies and strong shipments in recent months.

• Ukraine corn is cut in half to 1.0 million tons and Ukraine barley is lowered 300,000 tons to 4.0 million because of export quotas that are restricting trade.

• Argentina sorghum is up 350,000 tons to 600,000 based on early export registrations, increased exportable supplies (largest crop in 7 years), and strong shipments to Japan.

• U.S. sorghum is down 200,000 tons to 4.2 million based on the slow pace of sales, especially to Mexico. This is the lowest level of exports in over 20 years.

• EU-25 corn is raised 500,000 tons again this month to 4.0 million based on the pace of import licenses. This is more than double from last year and the accession of Bulgaria and Romania will likely increase corn trade to the EU-25.

• Mexico corn is up 500,000 tons to 6.8 million because of rapid purchases and shipments.

• China barley is lowered 200,000 tons to 2.0 million as a result of tightness in key suppliers such as Australia and Canada as well as a large domestic crop.

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Last modified: Friday, January 12, 2007