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Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series
FG 12-06

December 2006                   
                                    
Green ball image Read the notice regarding the latest changes to the Circular                                


Tight EU Grain Market Causes Prices to Climb

Chart depicting shrinking intervention stocks in EU for wheat, barley, corn and rye.  French monthly prices rise

EU grain supplies have tightened this year as a result of smaller coarse grain and wheat crops as well as lower carryin stocks. This domestic tightness has combined with reduced global supplies to cause EU prices to climb to 10-year highs. In response, the Commission has begun selling intervention grain onto the domestic market to help curb prices. Attractive international prices have also allowed the Commission to sell large amounts of intervention grain for export, at prices about $50 above acquisition cost. These combined sales are leading to a dramatic drawdown in intervention stocks, particularly for wheat and barley. Furthermore, it is unlikely that much will be sold into intervention this year because domestic prices are far higher than the intervention price.

Despite the tight domestic situation, grain exports out of the EU are still expected to be up slightly as attractive prices for export and reduced competition (especially from Australia) pull EU supplies onto the world market.

Meanwhile, EU coarse grain imports are climbing this year in light of smaller domestic supplies; corn and sorghum import licenses are way ahead of last year’s pace as these imports are currently able to come in with very low duties.


        

TABLE OF CONTENTS                                                                    Complete Grain Report in PDF
Grain World Markets and Trade Commodity Data                   
                                                                                                                   
All Grains Summary: Global snapshot of grains production, consumption, stocks and trade

Wheat

Monthly Commentary: Wheat: World Markets and Trade

Table 1:  World Wheat, Flour, and Products Trade

Table 2:  World Wheat Production, Consumption, and Stocks

Table 3:  Regional Wheat Imports, Production, Consumption, and Stocks

Rice

Monthly Commentary: Rice: World Markets and Trade

Table 1:  World Rice Trade

Table 2:  World Rice Production, Consumption, and Stocks

Table 3:  Regional Rice Imports, Production, Consumption, and Stocks

Coarse Grains

Monthly Commentary: Coarse Grains: World Markets and Trade

Table 1:  World Coarse Grain Trade

Table 2:  World Coarse Grains Production, Consumption, and Stocks

Table 3:  Regional Coarse Grain Imports, Production, Consumption, and Stocks

Table 4:  World Corn Trade

Table 5:  World Corn Production, Consumption, and Stocks

Table 6:  Regional Corn Imports, Production, Consumption, and Stocks

Table 7:  World Barley Trade

Table 8:  World Barley Production, Consumption, and Stocks

Table 9:  Regional Barley Imports, Production, Consumption, and Stocks

Table 10: World Sorghum Trade

Table 11: World Sorghum Production, Consumption, and Stocks

Table 12: Regional Sorghum Imports, Production, Consumption, and Stocks

Table 13: World Oats Trade

Table 14: World Oats Production, Consumption, and Stocks

Table 15: Regional Oats Imports, Production, Consumption, and Stocks

Table 16: World Rye Trade


Table 17: World Rye Production, Consumption, and Stocks

Table 18: Regional Rye Imports, Production, Consumption, and Stocks

Historical Data Series

Table 1:  European Union: Grain Supply and Demand

Table 2:  China: Grain Supply and Demand

Table 3:  Other Europe: Grain Supply and Demand

Table 4:  Former Soviet Union: Grain Supply and Demand (Wheat and Coarse Grains)

Table 5:  Former Soviet Union: Grain Supply and Demand (Wheat)


Table 6:  Former Soviet Union: Grain Supply and Demand (Corn)


Table 7:  Former Soviet Union: Grain Supply and Demand (Barley)


Table 8:  Wheat Supply and Disappearance: Selected Exporters

Table 9:  Corn Supply and Disappearance: Selected Exporters

Table 10: Barley Supply and Disappearance: Selected Exporters

Table 11: Sorghum Supply and Disappearance: Selected Exporters

Table 12: U.S. Grains Supply and Distribution: Wheat, Corn, Sorghum, Barley, Oats, Rye, and Rice

Table 13: Total Wheat and Coarse Grains: Supply and Demand

Table 14: World Wheat and Coarse Grains: Supply and Demand

Table 15: World Corn and Barley: Supply and Demand

Table 16: World Rice: Supply and Demand

Endnotes: Regional Table Definitions and other notes.

Additional Resources

Production, Supply and Demand Database Online (PSD Online)

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE)

Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees (ICEC)






Green ball imageCIRCULAR MODIFICATIONS  - CHANGES IN RELEASE TIMES

December 2006

Schedule Change:
FAS will update its production, supply and distribution database for grains along with its downloadable data sets at 9 a.m. on December 11, 2006, instead of noon, December 12. The World Markets and Trade publications for grains will be released at 9:30 a.m. on December 11, instead of 3 p.m., December 12.

October 2006

Starting with the October release, data and the Circular will be available to the public at 12 noon (Washington, D.C. local time) the day following WASDE, i.e., 3 hours earlier than before. We hope to accelerate this schedule even further in the near future.

Your comments on the new Circular are welcome and can be sent to gfd@usda.gov. Thank you for the comments that we have already received. They have been very helpful.

September 2006

FAS released a new version of PSD Online on August 31, 2006. It retains all of the ease-of-use and functionality of the current version, while incorporating some new features. Samples of the new data attributes and format can be obtained from the FAS web site (http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdHome.aspx).

The new system will allow us to overhaul this Circular so readers will notice a new look beginning in September. This revised format will be "in transition" over the next several months, as we make use of the expanded capabilities of the new PSD system.  Your comments on the new Circular will be welcome and can be sent to gfd@usda.gov. We thank you in advance for your patience over the next few months.

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Last modified: Thursday, March 08, 2007