WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE:

COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA

WHEAT: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE

MONTHLY HIGHLIGHTS: See PDF version for charts

Supplies in Key Competitors Revised Up this Month: Upward revisions in the supplies of Argentina and Canada boost global exportable supplies this month. Production in both countries was raised 1 million tons each with Canadian supplies now expected to be near 15-year highs.

Australian Wheat Board (AWB) International to Lose Veto Power for 6 Months: Prime Minister (PM) John Howard announced on December 5, 2006, that Agriculture Minister Peter McGuaran will assume AWB International’s veto powers. The company traditionally used its veto to deny applications from rival exporters who wish to sell Australian wheat. During the next three months, the Australian government will consult with the industry over a range of options about future marketing arrangements. Currently, there are three schools of thought on how to resolve the issue: 1) the single-desk should be maintained; 2) the single-desk should undergo immediate and full deregulation; and 3) a more conciliatory approach to review all options on the table.

PRICES:

Domestic: For November, wheat prices fell early in the month on slow export sales but then recovered on concerns over new crop conditions as well as support from high corn prices. For the month, Hard Red Spring (HRS) prices rose $9 per ton, Hard Red Winter (HRW) rose $5, Soft Red Winter (SRW) prices were unchanged, and Soft White (SWW) prices fell $2.

• Argentina is up 500,000 tons to 9.5 million on higher expected production. Early season sales have been very strong.

• United States is down 500,000 tons to 25.5 million as exportable supplies are raised in key competitors Argentina and Canada, and shipments and sales to date have been very sluggish.

• Brazil is up 200,000 tons to 7.5 million on sharply lower production. Brazil is expected to be the top importer in 2006/07.

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Last modified: Monday, December 11, 2006