WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE :

COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA

MONTHLY HIGHLIGHTS: See PDF version for charts

United States to Import More Oats Than It Produces: For the first time in history, U.S. oat imports are forecast to exceed domestic production as the oat crop has fallen to a record low. Acreage has continued to drop as better returns for other crops have caused farmers to switch out of oats. With a smaller crop and Canadian supplies at 7-year highs, imports are expected to surge to near-record levels. The shipment pace in recent months has already been very strong. Most of the oats imported from Canada are used for milling into oatmeal and other products.

PRICES:

Domestic: September export bids for #2 yellow corn were up $5 per ton to $120, supported by continued strong exports, expanding domestic demand, and high wheat prices. Similarly, bids for #2 yellow sorghum (Texas Gulf) were up $5 to $118 per ton, supported by tight U.S. supplies and strong import demand from EU-25.

• Brazil corn is raised 500,000 tons to 2.0 million (and by the same amount in 2005/06) because of a slowdown in poultry production and exports and strong international prices for corn.

• Serbia and Montenegro corn is raised by 200,000 tons to 1.0 million--a record--based on record production and strong shipments to EU-25. The same change was made for 2005/06.

• Australian barley is lowered 1.5 million tons to 3.0 million on sharply lower production.

• EU-25 barley is raised 500,000 tons to 3.5 million and Ukraine barley is up 200,000 tons to a record 5.2 million because of sharply lower export availability from Australia.

• Canada oats is raised 100,000 tons to 1.7 million on greater expected demand from the United States.

• EU-25 corn is boosted by 500,000 tons to 3.0 million based on the early, rapid pace of import licenses.

• Indonesia corn is raised 500,000 tons to 1.3 million because of a significant cut to production.

• Mexico corn is cut by 700,000 tons to 6.3 million because of a larger crop.

• South Korea corn is up by 200,000 tons to 8.9 million. Very high wheat prices are likely to reduce imports for feeding.

• Saudi Arabia barley is down 500,000 tons to 6.0 million because of tight exportable supplies in major exporters, particularly Australia, as well as ample stocks.

• United States oats is up by 100,000 tons to 1.8 million on record low production.

• United States corn is up 500,000 tons to 56.5 million because of continued strong shipments in September.

• China corn is dropped 200,000 tons to 3.8 million, the lowest in 7 years.

• Canada barley is lowered 400,000 tons to 1.9 million as a result of near-year end trade data. A smaller crop in 2006 has reduced the size of shipments at the end of the trade year.
   
• Ukraine barley is up 200,000 tons to 4.5 million on very strong new crop exports in recent months.
   
• Australia sorghum is cut by 100,000 tons to 200,000 because of slow shipments late in the trade year, likely caused by tight feed grain supplies arising from Australia's current drought situation.

• Canada oats is raised 300,000 tons to 1.7 million as strong demand from the United States and large supplies boosted new crop shipments in August and September.

• EU-25, Morocco, Peru, South Africa, and South Korea corn are all adjusted based on recent trade data. Morocco and Peru imports are at record levels; South Africa is at the highest in 13 years.

• Mexico corn is cut by 300,000 tons to 6.7 million--still a record--because of a larger crop and slower than anticipated shipments late in the season.

• Morocco barley is cut by 200,000 tons to 500,000 tons. Larger new crop supplies have led to reduced import shipments during the past few months.

• Mexico sorghum is lowered 200,000 tons to 3.2 million because of slow shipments late in the season. Ample corn production plus imports (including cracked corn) appear to be sufficient to meet the country's feed grain needs.

• United States oats is up by 200,000 tons to 1.8 million on very strong shipments from Canada in August and September.

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Last modified: Friday, October 13, 2006