WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE :
COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA
COARSE GRAINS: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE
version for charts
United States to Import More Oats Than It Produces: For
the first time in history, U.S. oat imports are forecast to exceed domestic
production as the oat crop has fallen to a record low. Acreage has continued to
drop as better returns for other crops have caused farmers to switch out of
oats. With a smaller crop and Canadian supplies at 7-year highs, imports are
expected to surge to near-record levels. The shipment pace in recent months has
already been very strong. Most of the oats imported from Canada are used for
milling into oatmeal and other products.
Domestic: September export bids for #2 yellow corn were
up $5 per ton to $120, supported by continued strong exports, expanding domestic
demand, and high wheat prices. Similarly, bids for #2 yellow sorghum (Texas
Gulf) were up $5 to $118 per ton, supported by tight U.S. supplies and strong
import demand from EU-25.
TRADE CHANGES IN 2006/2007
- Brazil corn is raised 500,000 tons to 2.0 million (and by the same
amount in 2005/06) because of a slowdown in poultry production and exports and
strong international prices for corn.
- Serbia and Montenegro corn is raised by 200,000 tons to 1.0 million--a
record--based on record production and strong shipments to EU-25. The same
change was made for 2005/06.
- Australian barley is lowered 1.5 million tons to 3.0 million on
sharply lower production.
- EU-25 barley is raised 500,000 tons to 3.5 million and Ukraine
barley is up 200,000 tons to a record 5.2 million because of sharply lower
export availability from Australia.
- Canada oats is raised 100,000 tons to 1.7 million on greater expected
demand from the United States.
- EU-25 corn is boosted by 500,000 tons to 3.0 million based on the
early, rapid pace of import licenses.
- Indonesia corn is raised 500,000 tons to 1.3 million because of a
significant cut to production.
- Mexico corn is cut by 700,000 tons to 6.3 million because of a larger
- South Korea corn is up by 200,000 tons to 8.9 million. Very
high wheat prices are likely to reduce imports for feeding.
- Saudi Arabia barley is down 500,000 tons to 6.0 million because
of tight exportable supplies in major exporters, particularly Australia, as
well as ample stocks.
- United States oats is up by 100,000 tons to 1.8 million on
record low production.
TRADE CHANGES IN 2005/2006
- United States corn is up 500,000 tons to 56.5 million because of
continued strong shipments in September.
is lowered 400,000 tons to 1.9 million as a result of
near-year end trade data. A smaller crop in 2006 has reduced the size of
shipments at the end of the trade year.
- China corn is dropped 200,000 tons to 3.8 million, the lowest in 7
Ukraine barley is up 200,000 tons to 4.5 million on very strong new
crop exports in recent months.
Australia sorghum is cut by 100,000 tons to 200,000 because of slow
shipments late in the trade year, likely caused by tight feed grain supplies
arising from Australia's current drought situation.
- Canada oats is raised 300,000 tons to 1.7 million as strong demand
from the United States and large supplies boosted new crop shipments in August
- EU-25, Morocco, Peru, South Africa, and South Korea corn are
all adjusted based on recent trade data. Morocco and Peru imports are at
record levels; South Africa is at the highest in 13 years.
- Mexico corn is cut by 300,000 tons to 6.7 million--still a
record--because of a larger crop and slower than anticipated shipments late in
- Morocco barley is cut by 200,000 tons to 500,000 tons. Larger new crop
supplies have led to reduced import shipments during the past few months.
- Mexico sorghum is lowered 200,000 tons to 3.2 million because of slow
shipments late in the season. Ample corn production plus imports (including
cracked corn) appear to be sufficient to meet the country's feed grain needs.
- United States oats is up by 200,000 tons to 1.8 million on very
strong shipments from Canada in August and September.
Return to Table of
Friday, October 13, 2006