WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE :

COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA

MONTHLY HIGHLIGHTS: See PDF version for charts

Ukraine Expected to Be World’s Largest Barley Exporter in 2006/07: Ukrainian exports have surged in recent years and are now expected to reach 5.0 million tons—a new record. During the late 1990s, exports averaged less than 1 million tons per year. This year’s harvest was the largest in over a decade, primarily as a result of sharply higher area. Conditions last fall were very dry, restricting the planting of winter grains, and as a result, farmers shifted area to spring barley. This greater supply will allow Ukraine to surpass Australia as the world’s largest supplier of barley. Australian production and exports are forecast to fall as the result of continued very dry conditions.

PRICES:

Domestic: August export bids for #2 yellow corn were up $1 per ton to $115. Bids for #2 yellow sorghum (Texas Gulf) dropped sharply by over $6 to $113 per ton.

Corn prices in August softened after USDA's crop report but were supported by continued strong exports and domestic demand. Sorghum export prices have returned to a discount to corn and have weakened with harvest pressure and slow exports.

• United States corn is raised 2.5 million tons to 57.0 million, the highest since 1994/95, because of strong new crop sales and the continued absence of significant export competition.

• Australian barley is lowered 300,000 tons to 4.5 million on lower production due to drought.

• EU-25 corn is cut in half to 500,000 tons with prospects for a reduced harvest and high domestic prices.

• Ukraine corn is cut by 200,000 tons to 1.8 million because of prospects for the smallest crop in 4 years.

• Canada oats is raised 100,000 tons to 1.6 million on less expected competition from subsidized EU oats.

• EU-25 oats is lowered 50,000 tons to 250,000 on smaller crop prospects in Sweden.

• Ukraine barley is up 400,000 tons to a record 5.0 million as tighter barley supplies in competitor countries will encourage exports.

• Colombia corn is raised by 500,000 tons to a record 3.1 million because of strong demand from the poultry sector.

• Iran corn is up 700,000 tons to 2.5 million because of strong feed demand.

• Taiwan corn is raised 200,000 tons to 4.8 million because of firm feed demand.

• United States corn is up 1.5 million tons to 56.0 million, the highest in 11 years, because of a surge in shipments during August.

• EU-25 barley is lowered 400,000 tons to 2.5 million as a result of sluggish new crop exports in recent months.

• Ukraine barley is up 300,000 tons to 4.3 million on very strong new crop exports in recent months.

• Brazil corn is raised 500,000 tons to 1.9 million as a result of a faster shipment pace, especially to Iran (which itself has imports up 500,000 tons to 2.3 million).

• South Africa corn is down 200,000 tons to 1.2 million because of a slower shipment pace.

• Colombia corn is up 400,000 tons to 3.0 million because of strong demand from the poultry sector.

• Indonesia corn is raised 300,000 tons to 1.3 million based on recent shipments.

• Mexico sorghum is lowered 100,000 tons to 3.4 million because of slow shipments late in the season.

• Sudan sorghum is raised 100,000 tons to 250,000 because of recent aid shipments.

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Last modified: Wednesday, September 13, 2006