WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE :
COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA
COARSE GRAINS: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE
version for charts
Ukraine Expected to Be World’s Largest Barley Exporter in
2006/07: Ukrainian exports have surged in recent years and are now expected
to reach 5.0 million tons—a new record. During the late 1990s, exports averaged
less than 1 million tons per year. This year’s harvest was the largest in over a
decade, primarily as a result of sharply higher area. Conditions last fall were
very dry, restricting the planting of winter grains, and as a result, farmers
shifted area to spring barley. This greater supply will allow Ukraine to surpass
Australia as the world’s largest supplier of barley. Australian production and
exports are forecast to fall as the result of continued very dry conditions.
Domestic: August export bids for #2 yellow corn were up
$1 per ton to $115. Bids for #2 yellow sorghum (Texas Gulf) dropped sharply by
over $6 to $113 per ton.
Corn prices in August softened after USDA's crop report but
were supported by continued strong exports and domestic demand. Sorghum export
prices have returned to a discount to corn and have weakened with harvest
pressure and slow exports.
TRADE CHANGES IN 2006/2007
- United States corn is raised 2.5 million tons to 57.0 million, the
highest since 1994/95, because of strong new crop sales and the continued
absence of significant export competition.
- Australian barley is lowered 300,000 tons to 4.5 million on lower
production due to drought.
- EU-25 corn is cut in half to 500,000 tons with prospects for a reduced
harvest and high domestic prices.
- Ukraine corn is cut by 200,000 tons to 1.8 million because of
prospects for the smallest crop in 4 years.
- Canada oats is raised 100,000 tons to 1.6 million on less expected
competition from subsidized EU oats.
- EU-25 oats is lowered 50,000 tons to 250,000 on smaller crop prospects
- Ukraine barley is up 400,000 tons to a record 5.0 million as tighter
barley supplies in competitor countries will encourage exports.
- Colombia corn is raised by 500,000 tons to a record 3.1 million
because of strong demand from the poultry sector.
- Iran corn is up 700,000 tons to 2.5 million because of strong feed
- Taiwan corn is raised 200,000 tons to 4.8 million because of firm feed
TRADE CHANGES IN 2005/2006
- United States corn is up 1.5 million tons to 56.0 million, the highest
in 11 years, because of a surge in shipments during August.
- EU-25 barley is lowered 400,000 tons to 2.5 million as a result of
sluggish new crop exports in recent months.
- Ukraine barley is up 300,000 tons to 4.3 million on very strong new
crop exports in recent months.
- Brazil corn is raised 500,000 tons to 1.9 million as a result of a
faster shipment pace, especially to Iran (which itself has imports up
500,000 tons to 2.3 million).
- South Africa corn is down 200,000 tons to 1.2 million because of a
slower shipment pace.
- Colombia corn is up 400,000 tons to 3.0 million because of strong
demand from the poultry sector.
- Indonesia corn is raised 300,000 tons to 1.3 million based on recent
- Mexico sorghum is lowered 100,000 tons to 3.4 million because of slow
shipments late in the season.
- Sudan sorghum is raised 100,000 tons to 250,000 because of recent aid
Return to Table of
Wednesday, September 13, 2006