COARSE GRAINS: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE
World coarse grain production in 2006/07 is forecast to be marginally smaller yet still remain the third-largest ever. With global consumption expanding by over 25 million tons, ending stocks and the stocks-to-use ratio are forecast to drop to their lowest levels in over 30 years, resulting in higher prices. World trade remains relatively flat, although tighter supplies of feed-quality wheat could cause a shift to more corn import demand (See PDF version for chart).
Global corn production is forecast at 680 million tons, down slightly from 2005/06 but still the third highest in history. Consumption is projected to climb sharply to a record 717 million tons. This gain is led by growth in corn used for ethanol in the United States; however, higher foreign consumption will account for over half of the expansion. World corn trade is expected to be up slightly due to a continued recovery in poultry as well as reduced supplies of feed-quality wheat. U.S. exports are forecast to climb and market share to expand, due to reduced competition from Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and China, as well as stronger demand from Canada on lower production and resolution of the trade case with the United States (See PDF version for chart).
Global barley trade is projected to drop nearly a million tons as a result of reduced demand in North African markets. Barley and forage crops in Morocco, Tunisia, and Algeria are expected to be very large, and imports are consequently forecast to fall by nearly two-thirds. For exporters, Canada is expected to reduce shipments as production is forecast to be the smallest in 4 years. Meanwhile, supplies in Australia and EU-25 are expected to be large and exports steady. For the Black Sea region, although barley crops are expected to be up slightly in Russia and Ukraine, higher feeding in the face of smaller wheat crops will likely constrain any growth in exports.
Global sorghum trade patterns are largely unchanged year to year, with static demand from Mexico and Japan and some reduced need from food aid recipients.
Global oat trade continues to be dominated by U.S. demand. Canadian supplies are forecast to be the largest in 25 years as a result of sharply higher plantings, but much of this increased supply will likely go into feed channels. Scandinavian oat production is also forecast slightly higher, and, as a result, EU-25 exports are expected to be up as well.
Global rye trade is expected to be unchanged from last year, and continues to be driven by the EU Commissionís decisions on liquidating intervention stocks, which have fallen by more than two-thirds (from 5.1 million) in the past few years. A large amount of intervention rye has been transported internally to drought-ravaged Spain, but in 2006/07 a larger amount will likely have to be exported to non-EU markets. Rye production in the former Soviet Union is expected to fall to very low levels, and Russia and Ukraine are expected to become net importers.
HIGHLIGHTS FOR 2005/06
United States corn
South Africa corn
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Last modified: Monday, May 15, 2006