COARSE GRAINS: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE
EU Oat Exports Drop to 10-year Low: European Union exports were lowered this month to the smallest amount since 1995/96. Exports are largely a function of crop size in Sweden and Finland as they are the only countries eligible for oat export subsidies from the Commission as part of their accession agreements (and consequently account for nearly all external trade). Production in these countries has continued to fall, and with low stocks (oats are not eligible for intervention), exportable supplies have shrunk. Current marketing year licenses are down nearly half from last year and virtually all exports typically go to the United States. (See PDF version for chart).
U.S. Corn Gains in Exports Over Last Year: In the face of reduced competition from Argentina and China (combined exports are down over 5 million tons from last year), U.S. corn exports are expected to surge to a 7-year high and the United States will consequently garner an even larger market share. In recent weeks, export sales have been very strong, especially to markets in Asia and the Western Hemisphere.
Argentine corn exports are considerably lower this year because of reduced production and stronger domestic feeding, and China’s exports are expected to fall to the lowest level in 7 years. (See PDF version for table).
Domestic: February export bids for #2 yellow corn were up sharply by over $4 per ton to $107. Bids for #2 yellow sorghum (Texas Gulf) were up a similar amount to $105/MT.
Corn prices have been supported by strong export sales and shipments, as well as forecasts for lower ending stocks due to a sharp increase in the use of corn for ethanol. However, concerns over bird flu and large feed grain supplies have kept prices in check.
Sorghum prices have been underpinned by relatively strong sales and food aid shipments, as well as firmness in the corn market.
TRADE CHANGES IN 2005/2006
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Last modified: Monday, March 13, 2006