WHEAT: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE
Market Shift Expected in Australian Exports: While wheat production in Australia (currently being harvested) is forecast higher than last year, exports are not expected to grow significantly. Although Australia will likely benefit from reduced Argentine competition in Asian and East African markets, this could be offset by smaller purchases by other key markets.
China, Pakistan, and Iraq, which last year combined to account for a quarter of Australian wheat exports, all have reduced purchases of Australian wheat. China’s total imports this year (from all suppliers) are down by more than half, and Australian shipments in recent months have nearly disappeared.
Pakistan’s imports are also forecast sharply lower, and importers have increasingly turned to Black Sea supplies. Although Iraq’s total imports are expected up this year, competition has intensified from the United States, with sales of nearly 2 million tons of U.S. wheat already on the books. Australian exports to these three markets during the first quarter of the trade year were down over 80 percent from the same period last year (See PDF version for chart).
Domestic: Prices for all wheat classes fell in October, pressured by smaller-than-anticipated export sales, as well as improving growing conditions for next year’s winter wheat crop. For the month, SRW prices fell the most, $11 per ton, with HRS down $6, HRW down $4 and SWW down $1 (See PDF version for chart).
TRADE CHANGES IN 2005/2006
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Last modified: Monday, November 14, 2005