WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE :
COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA
COARSE GRAINS: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE
Katrina’s Impact on Gulf Corn Shipments: Hurricane
Katrina’s damage to the lower Mississippi River and Gulf export facilities is
causing a significant setback to U.S. corn shipments in the short run. About 70
percent of U.S. corn exports are shipped through the Mississippi River Gulf
ports. Japan, the world’s largest importer, imports on average 950,000 metric
tons a month from that area. According to some industry sources, however, the
impact may be tempered by the diversion of some shipments to the West Coast. If
most of the loading capacity can be restored in the next few weeks, the impact
on U.S. exports should be fairly modest. Although the 2004/05 U.S. export
estimate is cut by 1.5 million tons this month, largely on account of Katrina,
the 2005/06 forecast is raised by 1.5 million tons. This is partly in
anticipation of a compensatory surge over the next few months, as well as
increased shipments to Mexico and Egypt.
Domestic: August export bids for #2 yellow corn
averaged just over $99/MT, down more than $5 from July. Improved crop prospects,
together with late-month disruptions caused by the hurricane, have affected
August export bids for #2 yellow sorghum (Texas Gulf) dropped
nearly $5 to average nearly $100/MT. Sorghum export values have slumped as new
crop bids are in the market and disruptions are anticipated from the hurricane.
Sorghum and corn remain at similar values (see PDF
version for chart).
TRADE CHANGES IN 2005/2006
- United States corn is up 1.5 million tons to 51.5 million due to
larger demand from Mexico and Egypt and an expected compensatory surge in
exports after the Gulf facilities are restored.
- United States sorghum is raised by 200,000 tons to 4.7 million based
on prospects for increased trade with Mexico.
- Australia barley is increased by 500,000 tons to 4.3 million based on
higher-than-expected production and strong China demand.
- Turkey barley is up from zero to 100,000 tons due to recent sales.
- Egypt corn is raised by 500,000 tons to 5.3 million because of
increasing feed demand.
- Iran corn is up 300,000 tons to 2.3 million based on a burgeoning
demand as indicated by rapid purchases.
- Mexico corn is raised by 500,000 tons to 6.7 million on account
of reduced domestic production.
- China barley is increased by 300,000 tons to 2.1 million, the highest
in 5 years, due to strong growth in malting barley consumption.
- Mexico sorghum is up 200,000 tons to 3.7 million, the highest in 4
years, due to tight feed grain supplies.
TRADE CHANGES IN 2004/2005
- United States corn is cut by 1.5 million tons to 44.5 million because
of Hurricane Katrina and a sluggish pace in the past 2 months.
- Ukraine corn is up 200,000 tons to 2.3 million based on accumulated
- Australia sorghum is down 100,000 tons to 400,000 because of a slow
- United States sorghum is down 100,000 tons to 4.6 million as a result
of the slowdown in shipments caused by Hurricane Katrina.
- Iran corn is up 200,000 tons to 2.5 million on the basis of strong
demand from the poultry sector.
- Japan corn is lowered by 300,000 tons to 16.5 million due to Hurricane
Katrina’s impact on U.S. Gulf exports.
- Taiwan corn is lowered by 200,000 tons to 4.5 million based on a
slower-than-expected pace in recent months.
- Mexico sorghum is down by 300,000 tons to 3.1 million. A slow import
pace is exacerbated by expected disruption from the hurricane.
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Tuesday, September 13, 2005