RICE: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE
Radical Change in Export Positions:
Although Thailand is estimated to maintain its number one exporter slot, its dominance in the global market has shrunk from 2004. With a smaller crop, tighter free stocks, and subsequently higher prices, exports are expected to be down nearly 25 percent in 2005 (See PDF version for chart).
Consequently, the usual suspects are picking up the slack. Vietnam has a larger-than-expected crop and very competitive prices. Additionally, despite a government-imposed export ban, sales to select big-ticket markets, such as the Philippines, are still permitted. India, too, has taken a larger slice of the pie, focusing its efforts in the parboiled markets – Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, and South Africa, where it competes virtually one-on-one with Thailand. Meanwhile, as the gap between Thai and U.S. prices shrinks to approximately $10 per metric ton, FOB, the United States is experiencing great success in the Iraqi market.
International: After dropping about $10 per ton from June to July, price quotes for Thai 100B are up $11 at $289 per ton, FOB. Meanwhile, Viet 5% has surged $22 and is currently quoted at
$254 per ton, FOB, almost back to what it was two months ago. India 5% is currently quoted at $257 per ton, FOB, down $5 from last month.
Domestic: U.S. prices eased over the month, with #2/4 currently quoted at $296 per ton, FOB. Prices for U.S. #1/4 medium grain milled rice from California are currently quoted at $350 per ton, FOB, up $30 from last month. (See PDF version for chart).
TRADE CHANGES IN 2006
TRADE CHANGES IN 2005
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