WHEAT: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE
India Expected To Return as Net Importer: For the first time in 6 years, India is expected to import significant quantities of wheat, currently estimated at 1 million tons. Although production is about the same as last year, sharply lower carryin stocks and strong consumption are tightening supplies, causing domestic prices to strengthen. In the past 4 years, stocks have dropped from 23 million tons to only 4, due to strong export programs and rising consumption. The latter is a result of high population growth, implementation of social programs, and changes in dietary habits with increasing urbanization and higher consumer income. (See PDF version for chart)
Turkey’s Flour Exports Jump in 2004/05: Turkish flour exports surged last year, more than doubling the previous year’s level. A number of factors have likely contributed to this growth, including a better quality domestic crop, advantages in freight due to the use of containers, and increased marketing efforts. Additionally, Turkey has benefited from strong nearby demand in Iraq, its largest flour market this year. Iraq’s insufficient wheat purchases there and delays in offloading wheat cargos during recent months necessitated increased buying of foreign flour for public distribution. (See PDF version for chart)
Domestic: Wheat prices fell for the winter wheat classes in June as the harvest accelerated. Reports of lower protein in the HRW crop, however, strengthened HRS prices through much of the month.
For the week ending July 1, and compared to a month earlier, average prices fell $4 a ton for HRW, $5 a ton for SRW, and $3 a ton for SWW. HRS prices, however, rose by $2 a ton. (See PDF version for chart)
TRADE CHANGES IN 2005/2006
TRADE CHANGES IN 2004/2005
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