WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE:
COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA
WHEAT: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE
2004/05 Sub-Saharan African Imports Jump, Driven by Nigeria:
With strong population growth, Sub-Saharan wheat imports have expanded
steadily during the last decade, averaging half a million tons increase per
year. This year import growth has even doubled that earlier pace, bringing
imports to 11 million tons. In Nigeria, higher wheat imports (which comprise a
quarter of the regionís total) are being driven by rising consumer demand for
wheat products, coupled with a government ban on imports of pasta, spaghetti,
and biscuits. Consumption has nearly quadrupled during the past decade, and this
higher demand has resulted in the rapid expansion and modernization of the
milling industry. South Africaís imports are estimated to reach a record because
of two consecutive below average crops (See PDF
version for chart).
Domestic: Wheat prices fell initially in May, but then
trended upward for the rest of the month due to weather concerns in the HRW
growing area as well as continued dryness in Argentina and Australia.
For the week ending May 27, and compared to a month earlier,
average HRW prices were $2 a ton lower, and SWW fell $1 a ton. SRW prices
climbed by $5 a ton with HRS prices up $2 a ton (See
PDF version for chart).
TRADE CHANGES IN 2005/2006
- Argentina down 500,000 tons to 9.5 million as smaller planted area
reduces production prospects.
- Australia down 500,000 tons to 15.5 million as drought is expected to
reduce the exportable surplus.
- India cut by half to 500,000 tons. Carryin stocks are at an 8-year low
and the crop estimate was reduced this month.
- Russia up 1.0 million tons to 8.0 with better production prospects.
- Turkey up 200,000 tons to 1.2 million. A larger crop is expected to
allow greater exports, especially of wheat flour.
- Morocco up 200,000 to 2.9 million as weather-impacted production is
expected to fall to less than half of last yearís level.
- Nigeria up 100,000 tons to 2.8 million due to continued strong
- Tunisia up 100,000 tons to 1.2 million with a smaller crop estimate.
- Turkey down 200,000 tons to 1.0 million as a larger expected crop
reduces the need for imports.
TRADE CHANGES IN 2004/2005
- Argentina up 500,000 tons to a record 13.0 million due to a strong
shipment pace to date.
- Australia down 200,000 tons to 16.5 million due to export pace to
- Turkey up 300,000 tons to 1.6 million with strong flour exports,
especially to Iraq and Libya.
- Ukraine up 400,000 tons to 4.2 million as late-season shipments have
continued strong, especially to the European Union.
- United States up 500,000 tons to 28.5 million due to larger than
expected late-season shipments.
- Algeria up 200,000 to 4.5 million due to pace to date.
- Egypt up 200,000 tons to a record 7.7 million due to current trade and
- Nigeria up 200,000 tons to a record 2.8 million as expanding
consumption continues to drive larger imports, almost entirely from the United
- Sri Lanka up 100,000 tons to a record 1.1 million due to larger than
expected imports of wheat flour.
- EU-25 up 700,000 tons to 6.7 million with continued strong late-season
imports, especially of feed-quality wheat by Spain.
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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003