WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE :
COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA
COARSE GRAINS: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE
Shifts in Brazilís Corn Situation: The current drought in
southern Brazil is reducing second-crop prospects and necessitating higher
imports. Though GMO restrictions may hamper imports somewhat in 2004/05, overall
the country is still expected to import the highest amount since 1999/00, and
will need to continue substantial imports well into 2005/06. Strong domestic
demand, surging prices, and smaller supplies will also severely limit exports in
the coming months, a situation unlikely to be relieved until early 2006, when
the next main crop is harvested. Exports are consequently projected to fall to
the lowest level since Brazil first became a significant exporter in 2000/01.
Domestic: May export bids for #2 yellow corn averaged
just over $95/MT, down more than $1 from April. Corn export values have been
mostly flat since harvest.
May export bids for #2 yellow sorghum (Texas Gulf) averaged
over $96/MT, up over $3 from the previous month but nearly 20 percent below
year-ago prices. Sorghum is selling at a premium to corn for the first time in
14 months, perhaps as a result of recent strong sales to Mexico and heavy
third-quarter food aid shipments. (See PDF
version for chart).
TRADE CHANGES IN 2005/2006
- Brazil corn is down by 500,000 tons to 1.0 million, the lowest in 6
years, because of low stocks following a poor crop in 2005.
- South Africa corn up 200,000 tons to 2.0 million, the highest in 11
years. Record production and large stocks should stimulate exports.
- Canada barley raised by 200,000 tons to 2.0 million based on less
Black Sea competition.
- EU barley raised 300,000 tons to 3.6 million on less Black Sea area
- Ukraine barley lowered 300,000 tons to 3.5 million due to a sizeable
drop in production and tight exportable supplies.
- Brazil corn is doubled to 800,000 tons to cover smaller-than-expected
domestic supplies until the new crop is available.
- Egypt corn is raised by 300,000 tons to 4.5 million with
- Indonesia corn is cut 200,000 tons to 900,000 tons as a result of good
- Russia corn is halved to 400,000 tons as a consequence of ample
supplies of feed-quality wheat.
- Iran barley increased 200,000 tons to 500,000 reflecting expanded
- Morocco barley is raised 200,000 tons to 400,000 based on a
drop in production caused by regional drought.
- Turkey barley is lowered 300,000 tons to 100,000 on expectations for a
TRADE CHANGES IN 2004/2005
- Argentina corn is raised by 200,000 tons to a record 14.2 million,
reflecting continued strong sales and shipments.
- Brazil corn is lowered by 100,000 tons to 1.7 million as winter crop
production is very poor.
- South Africa corn is down 200,000 tons to 1.5 million. Despite record
production and huge stocks, exports are very slow.
- Ukraine corn is raised 300,000 tons to a record 2.1 million as sales
and shipments continue at a brisk pace, in spite of reports of low quality.
- Australia barley is raised by 700,000 tons to 4.5 million based on
strong demand from the Middle East and North Africa.
- Brazil corn is cut in half to 1.0 million tons. Although drought has
affected the crop and domestic demand is strong, uncertainties over biotech
corn from Argentina are impacting imports in the near term.
- Egypt corn is up 200,000 tons to 4.5 million because of strong
recovery in domestic demand, especially in the livestock and poultry sectors.
- Indonesia corn is down by 300,000 tons to 800,000 tons, the lowest in
6 years, because of good domestic production.
- Turkey corn is down 200,000 tons to 300,000 tons, the lowest in 11
years. Good domestic production and burdensome government stocks make imports
- Iran barley is raised by 300,000 tons to 550,000 based on
higher-than-expected imports from Australia.
Return to Table of
Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003