RICE: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE
Global Consumption Continues to Outpace Growth In Production: Global production in 2005/06 is projected at 410.3 million tons (milled basis), up over 8 million tons from a revised 2004/05 with the largest increases forecast in India, China, Bangladesh, and Thailand. Global consumption continues to outpace production and is expected to grow 3 million tons to 416.6 million. Consequently, ending stocks are expected to continue their downward trajectory, dropping 6 million tons to 68.5 million. However, with the majority of the decline in China, stocks in the rest of the world are forecast to show a minor gain for the first time in 5 years (See PDF version for chart).
Global trade is expected to be relatively flat year-to-year as a significant decline in Philippine import demand is partially offset by smaller gains in Iraq and Nigeria. Indonesia is forecast to remain largely withdrawn from the import market due to another large crop and ample stocks. Meanwhile, Thailand is likely to reduce exports for the second consecutive year due to low carry-over stocks. Vietnam is also anticipated to reduce exports. However, the United States is expected to gain market share with near-record exports forecast due to large exportable supplies (See PDF version for chart).
MONTHLY HIGHLIGHTS 2005
International: Asian prices are still showing a wide divergence between suppliers. In Thailand, prices remain high, sustained by the government intervention program, which was extended to the dry crop. Thai 100B is currently quoted at $302 per ton, FOB, up $1 from last month. However, speculation that the government is likely to begin selling intervention stocks could pressure prices. In contrast, prices in Vietnam have fallen throughout the month with ample exportable supplies. Viet 5% is currently quoted at $257 per ton, FOB, down $8 from last month. Prices in India remain unchanged; 5% is currently quoted at $265 per ton, FOB.
Domestic: U.S. prices softened slightly month to month, with U.S. #2/4 long grain milled rice quoted at $318 per ton, FOB, down $3. The spread between comparable qualities of Thai and U.S. rice is at a low of $16 per ton. Prices for U.S. #1/4 medium grain milled rice from California are currently quoted at $300 per ton, FOB, up $10 from last month.
TRADE CHANGES IN 2005
TRADE CHANGES IN 2004
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