RICE: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE
Less Demand, Tighter Exporter Stocks in 2005: Global trade is estimated to fall nearly 1.0 million tons in 2005 as major importing countries, such as Brazil, Indonesia, and the Philippines are estimated to have record or near-record supplies. This decline in import demand comes during a year when supplies in major exporting countries, such as Thailand, are relatively tight. However, those countries that need to import will face higher global prices than the last couple of years.
International: Asian prices have softened slightly over the last
month. In Thailand, a lack of fresh overseas demand, coupled with new crop
supplies, have put downward pressure on prices. Thai 100B is currently quoted at
$294 per ton, FOB, down $2 from last month and a six-year high. In Vietnam,
overseas demand is strong, mainly from the Philippines and Cuba, and supplies
are ample due to the Winter-Spring harvest. Viet 5% is currently quoted at $262
per ton, FOB, down $5 from last month. In India, 5% is quoted at $270 per ton,
FOB, up $3 from last month (See PDF version
Domestic: U.S. prices have also trended downward over the last month with U.S. #2/4 long grain milled rice quoted at $321 per ton, FOB, down $8 from last month. The price spread between similar qualities of U.S. and Thai rice has shrunk to a two-year low of $27 per ton. Prices for U.S. #1/4 medium grain milled rice from California are currently quoted at $295 per ton, FOB, down $5 from last month.
TRADE CHANGES IN 2005
TRADE CHANGES IN 2004
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