RICE: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE
Market Share Shifts in 2005: From 2003 to 2004, the international rice market saw major market share shifts as China and India retreated from the market allowing Thailand to supply approximately 40 percent of the global market. From 2004 to 2005, the international market is expected to again see substantial shifts in market share as relatively tight exportable supplies in Thailand and China force buyers to look for alternative suppliers, primarily India, Pakistan, and the United States (See PDF version for chart).
International: Asian Prices Continue To Creep Upward. In Thailand, lackluster demand dampens prices while continued government intervention purchases and a stronger dollar push them higher. Thai 100B is currently quoted at $289 per ton, FOB, up $5 from last month. Meanwhile, in Vietnam, supplies are expected to be tight until new crop becomes available in early February. Tight supplies, plus winning the recent 320,000-ton Philippine tender, have led to higher Viet prices. Viet 5% jumped $12 from last month to $247 per ton, FOB. Indian quotes also continue to increase: 5% is currently quoted at $263 per ton, FOB, up $8 on continued appreciation of the Rupee and strong local demand. Strong prices in Asia are expected to support unsubsidized Indian exports throughout 2005 (See PDF version for chart).
Domestic: While Asian prices continue upward, U.S. prices seem to be looking for direction. With little fresh demand, U.S. #2/4 long grain milled rice is currently quoted at $329 per ton, FOB, unchanged from last month. The price spread between similar qualities of U.S. and Thai rice has shrunk to $59 per ton. However, with Viet rice prices slow to increase, the spread between similar qualities of U.S. and Viet remains more than $80 per ton. It is this price spread that is expected to constrain U.S. exports to key Western Hemisphere markets, such as Cuba. Prices for U.S. #1/4 medium grain milled rice from California continue to be quoted at a low $300 per ton, FOB, due to near-record supplies.
TRADE CHANGES IN 2005
TRADE CHANGES IN 2004
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